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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol). 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol). 

If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain.  Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing.  Accept it, deal with it, move on.  Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU.  

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain.  Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing.  Accept it, deal with it, move on.  Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU.  

Once I conceded and accepted that ANY measurable snowfall from events like this are pure gifts, I learned to live this way after boxing day 2010... 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain.  Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing.  Accept it, deal with it, move on.  Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU.  

Well said, I couldn’t give sh*t what they get. Let’s bring our piece home

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Sterling:
The region of high pressure will gradually shift east and more
centralized over the region Thursday, leading to continued dry and
cold conditions. The low will continue to shift to the east and
eventually offshore Thursday night.

Confidence has increased to trigger a slight threat for a winter
storm for all of the region (see weather.gov/lwx/winter) for Friday
into Saturday. Uncertainty remains high, but confidence in an
impactful winter storm for part of the eastern seaboard, including
the local area, is increasing.

:popcorn:

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3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:
Sterling:
The region of high pressure will gradually shift east and more
centralized over the region Thursday, leading to continued dry and
cold conditions. The low will continue to shift to the east and
eventually offshore Thursday night.

Confidence has increased to trigger a slight threat for a winter
storm for all of the region (see weather.gov/lwx/winter) for Friday
into Saturday. Uncertainty remains high, but confidence in an
impactful winter storm for part of the eastern seaboard, including
the local area, is increasing.

:popcorn:

You forgot the most important part of the afternoon AFD from LWX... which was right after that lol

A deepening trough will move from the central plains into the
eastern US Friday into Saturday. Recent guidance has this trough
becoming negatively tilted along the Atlantic seaboard, though where
exactly the region of surface low pressure tracks and the position
of the upper level trough will be critical in this pattern
given no strong blocking over the Atlantic. The H5 ridge across
Idaho is favorable for a storm along the eastern US coast.
Recent runs of the GEFS, NBM, and EPS to some extent have
trended significantly further northwest. Note the GEFS/GFS has
statistically outperformed the EPS/EURO since late October with
H5 height correlation. Caution should be given in not only the
track of the surface low, but also if the surface low tracks too
far west, there will be a region that receives lower QPF due to
being displaced from the surface low and associated dynamics
and the dynamics of being under the ULL. This is a complex
situation that will become more clear over the next few days.
Regardless, the western facing slopes of the Allegheny Front
could have a prolonged upslope snow event with this system.
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Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. 
 

Enjpy y’all :)

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20 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I'm not a better mind but we watched something trend from way offshore to a harrisburg hauler 2 weeks ago at this range.  Nothing locked in at all yet imo.  

 

14 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It could totally trend snowier than a few inches.  Look at the CMC for an example of how that can happen.  

I didn't think so. Just that a few others are kinda bearish...I mean I understand why given our hhistory...yet this just doesn't feel like a pure Miller b to my novice eyes...I mean the southern component and the uncertainty of it's involvement is a wildcard, imo. 

I guess what I'm asking is what scenario would have to happen in order for us to get warning-level snow out of this. But perhaps it's too early to tell

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

I didn't think so. Just that a few others are kinda bearish...I mean I understand why given our hhistory...yet this just doesn't feel like a pure Miller b to my novice eyes...I mean the southern component and the uncertainty of it's involvement is a wildcard, imo. 

I guess what I'm asking is what scenario would have to happen in order for us to get warning-level snow out of this. But perhaps it's too early to tell

I think the GFS/CMC show how we can do well.  The storm is already strong by our latitude.  We would benefit from it being a tad closer to the coast but both give us a good snowstorm. 

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2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

These storms were posted in the February long range thread. One was the 2nd February 2010 snow storm. There we others...

Yes, the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm was perhaps about the best case scenario of a Miller B working out here.  It bombed out in just the right place (off coastal NJ, if I recall correctly?) and sat there or moved slowly.  And we had the upper low go right through us too, I think.

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THIS LINE is what everyone needs to be prepared for- some region will likely see some less ideal amounts! 

NWS Discussion:
Caution should be given in not only the track of the surface low, but also if the surface low tracks too far west, there will be a region that receives lower QPF due to being displaced from the surface low and associated dynamics and the dynamics of being under the ULL. 

But, most are already mentioning all the caveats in this set up.. 

 

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