WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I for one am excited to have Ralph and others from Philly north come in our thread and tell us how great the model runs are looking It's a Tooooomer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I for one am excited to have Ralph and others from Philly north come in our thread and tell us how great the model runs are looking On the other hand, less from that CentralVA guy, so... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, exactly. Its an escape hatch of sorts. Most of us could possibly entirely miss the coastal and still have a decent event of cold powder. Problem is, people care so much what SNE gets that a "decent" event is a disaster regardless if the coastal does ye 'ole skip-da-malooo (like they often do and everyone knows it lol). If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain. Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing. Accept it, deal with it, move on. Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a Tooooomer it's not a toooomer....it's a ralph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain. Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing. Accept it, deal with it, move on. Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU. Once I conceded and accepted that ANY measurable snowfall from events like this are pure gifts, I learned to live this way after boxing day 2010... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If this storm happens, THE ONLY way Boston and NYC don't totally crush us in terms of snowfall is if this thing is so wrapped up and west that it runs inland and they rain. Philly-NYC-Bos are all but CERTAINLY going to get more snow than us from this thing. Accept it, deal with it, move on. Again, thank jesusallahbuddah that we're getting ANYTHING from a La Nina unblocked Miller aBcdeFU. Well said, I couldn’t give sh*t what they get. Let’s bring our piece home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Once I conceded and accepted that ANY measurable snowfall from events like this are pure gifts, I learned to live this way after boxing day 2010... Miller B buddhism.....wise words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 So I'm guessing the better minds don't see this trending any snowier than a few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I'm guessing the better minds don't see this trending any snowier than a few inches? I'm not a better mind but we watched something trend from way offshore to a harrisburg hauler 2 weeks ago at this range. Nothing locked in at all yet imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Sterling: The region of high pressure will gradually shift east and more centralized over the region Thursday, leading to continued dry and cold conditions. The low will continue to shift to the east and eventually offshore Thursday night. Confidence has increased to trigger a slight threat for a winter storm for all of the region (see weather.gov/lwx/winter) for Friday into Saturday. Uncertainty remains high, but confidence in an impactful winter storm for part of the eastern seaboard, including the local area, is increasing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I'm guessing the better minds don't see this trending any snowier than a few inches? It could totally trend snowier than a few inches. Look at the CMC for an example of how that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Disclaimer: me starting this thread doesn't mean I think It's Happening. Ron Paul is asleep in his basement. Bro, don't screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Sterling: The region of high pressure will gradually shift east and more centralized over the region Thursday, leading to continued dry and cold conditions. The low will continue to shift to the east and eventually offshore Thursday night. Confidence has increased to trigger a slight threat for a winter storm for all of the region (see weather.gov/lwx/winter) for Friday into Saturday. Uncertainty remains high, but confidence in an impactful winter storm for part of the eastern seaboard, including the local area, is increasing. You forgot the most important part of the afternoon AFD from LWX... which was right after that lol A deepening trough will move from the central plains into the eastern US Friday into Saturday. Recent guidance has this trough becoming negatively tilted along the Atlantic seaboard, though where exactly the region of surface low pressure tracks and the position of the upper level trough will be critical in this pattern given no strong blocking over the Atlantic. The H5 ridge across Idaho is favorable for a storm along the eastern US coast. Recent runs of the GEFS, NBM, and EPS to some extent have trended significantly further northwest. Note the GEFS/GFS has statistically outperformed the EPS/EURO since late October with H5 height correlation. Caution should be given in not only the track of the surface low, but also if the surface low tracks too far west, there will be a region that receives lower QPF due to being displaced from the surface low and associated dynamics and the dynamics of being under the ULL. This is a complex situation that will become more clear over the next few days. Regardless, the western facing slopes of the Allegheny Front could have a prolonged upslope snow event with this system. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Who the f*ck is this Miller dude anyway? I think he started a beer label, and then a band. Or something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. Enjpy y’all 17 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Who the f*ck is this Miller dude anyway? The Miller Classification was created by meteorologist and researcher J.E. Miller in 1946. Meteorologists use the technique to determine the track and severity of nor'easters. Source: Wiki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I'm not a better mind but we watched something trend from way offshore to a harrisburg hauler 2 weeks ago at this range. Nothing locked in at all yet imo. 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It could totally trend snowier than a few inches. Look at the CMC for an example of how that can happen. I didn't think so. Just that a few others are kinda bearish...I mean I understand why given our hhistory...yet this just doesn't feel like a pure Miller b to my novice eyes...I mean the southern component and the uncertainty of it's involvement is a wildcard, imo. I guess what I'm asking is what scenario would have to happen in order for us to get warning-level snow out of this. But perhaps it's too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Four days out from a potential east coast storm during prime climo. We’ve been in much darker places lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I'm just amazed (and happy) that we even have a shot at a few inches from this event. And it would probably be of the cold powder variety given the temps. Given that, who gives a s**t how much NYC or BOS get or if they get crushed, if we at least share in some decent stuff too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Four days out from a potential east coast storm during prime climo. We’ve been in much darker places lol. Yep, agreed. This january has greatly made up for the last two, at least for MBY inside the beltway. It's actually cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 39 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I for one am excited to have Ralph and others from Philly north come in our thread and tell us how great the model runs are looking Hey, now that you mentioned it how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Anyone have a good example of a Miller B that worked out for the DC metro? Would be cool to learn more about those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I didn't think so. Just that a few others are kinda bearish...I mean I understand why given our hhistory...yet this just doesn't feel like a pure Miller b to my novice eyes...I mean the southern component and the uncertainty of it's involvement is a wildcard, imo. I guess what I'm asking is what scenario would have to happen in order for us to get warning-level snow out of this. But perhaps it's too early to tell I think the GFS/CMC show how we can do well. The storm is already strong by our latitude. We would benefit from it being a tad closer to the coast but both give us a good snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 31 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Anyone have a good example of a Miller B that worked out for the DC metro? Would be cool to learn more about those situations. These storms were posted in the February long range thread. One was the 2nd February 2010 snow storm. There were others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Hey, now that you mentioned it how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Anyone have a good example of a Miller B that worked out for the DC metro? Would be cool to learn more about those situations. 2009/2010 was an epic year for Miller B storms. I think Ji even might have some YT video during that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: These storms were posted in the February long range thread. One was the 2nd February 2010 snow storm. There we others... Yes, the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm was perhaps about the best case scenario of a Miller B working out here. It bombed out in just the right place (off coastal NJ, if I recall correctly?) and sat there or moved slowly. And we had the upper low go right through us too, I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 THIS LINE is what everyone needs to be prepared for- some region will likely see some less ideal amounts! NWS Discussion: Caution should be given in not only the track of the surface low, but also if the surface low tracks too far west, there will be a region that receives lower QPF due to being displaced from the surface low and associated dynamics and the dynamics of being under the ULL. But, most are already mentioning all the caveats in this set up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 57 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Has DC area ever fared well in a Miller B setup such as this one? Looks like DT favors New England maybe NYC. This is a Miller A screw job like December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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