Snowmadness Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days They probably posted that there because that storm somehow worked out for North Carolina but it did nothing here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i wonder if this is one of those trend west-trends east--trends back west storms. The only towns that benefit are philly NYC and boston smh Not here. 9 out of 10 times we in Philly cave to NYC on NE in these situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowmadness said: Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days I hope so. I wonder what the conditions were that led to the change in track. I mean, first order analysis one would think a storm like we're tracking in an environment without blocking would have plenty of room to shift west but so much of the track is based on some crazy interactions happening way out west that we could just as likely jump further east if that mess doesn't break our way. Fingers crossed we can make another gif like that one for this weekend should it come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: They probably posted that there because that storm somehow worked out for North Carolina but it did nothing here Epic fail for here….~1.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: lol DC does better than NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ji said: dc beats philly and NYC. take that and run all f'ing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though. I don’t know about that. Looks further east to me. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 00z GEFS is better at h5 at 96 compared to 18z at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though.This isn’t over, but we are suffering a lot from “two steps back, one step forward, repeat” and that one step forward is keeping people way too invested. Minus a handful of off runs this has not been our storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: I don’t know about that. Looks further east to me. 18z Yeah the vort map looked a smidge better at 84 but after that it pretty much ended up at the same location, just a bit deeper and I guess the surface just ended up getting underway too too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: This isn’t over, but we are suffering a lot from “two steps back, one step forward, repeat” and that one step forward is keeping people way too invested. Minus a handful of off runs this has not been our storm It did seem like things were trending our way before the wheels started falling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Its time to stop looking at upper air maps and focus on surface and precip maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Ji said: Its time to stop looking at upper air maps and focus on surface and precip maps Since when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Snowmadness said: Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days Generally I'm a lurker as well, but that was 21 years and multiple versions of the models ago. Impossible? No. But less likely than such things used to be. A few years ago, you could ALWAYS count on the west trend and knew where the "good spots" were 2, 3, 4, and 5 days out. Computing, our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, and all of that put into the models, have almost all gotten better. If I'm gonna hang my hopes on something, it ain't gonna be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Since when?Since this storm is cooked. Stick a fork in it for DC Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, CentralVaNATS said: Since this storm is cooked. Stick a fork in it for DC Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Cool beans. Have a great rest of the week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We need an emoji for being an idiot! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Verbatim that hooks inside 40/70, dabenchmark 40/70 is grammar school for DCA - BOS with a bombing cyclone in the mid latitudes. Occlusion in southern NE (Long Island Sound) is high school 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We need an emoji for being an idiot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 At this point we might be better off if the coastal is even slower to develop or have that weak wave off the southeast escape completely and get a nice minor event from the NS SW. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: At this point we might be better off if the coastal is even slower to develop or have that weak wave off the southeast escape completely and get a nice minor event from the NS SW. This has been my thinking all along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Ukie was a nudge in the right direction for snow... especially DC south actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Ukie was a nudge in the right direction for snow... especially DC south actually 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Popping in for a quick thought on the storm. I mentioned last night (Or the night before. I can't remember what day it is on mids), that these Miller B or hybrid types are not our climo, but the threat was certainly not dead. I do like the prospects of some light snow, at the very least while the 5H vort pivots overhead and provides a period of ascent over a pretty suitable airmass. This might be a close miss in the end game, but these storms needs a lot of ingredients to go right for our hood. I'm gonna be home for once and it might snow, and I got to tell ya, that is the one thing I am hoping for. Snow falling is just something I enjoy, no matter the intensity. I prefer heavy snow, but who doesn't? If that's a way we can score 1-3" FLUFFY inches, then so be it in my book. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If this isn’t going to improve at all, i’d take the 2-3” the Gfs shows with a nyc and PHL miss and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It’s almost euro wheelhouse time (whatever that’s worth anymore) let’s see how 0z looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Definitely going to be west of 12z... thats for sure looking at 72 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Definitely going to be west of 12z... thats for sure looking at 72 h5 It’s way better than the GFS and most likely better than the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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