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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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1 minute ago, Snowmadness said:

Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum

Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days 

 

 

4B69C91B-36EF-43C9-BCA8-D6D2ED86E6A2.gif

I hope so. I wonder what the conditions were that led to the change in track. I mean, first order analysis one would think a storm like we're tracking in an environment without blocking would have plenty of room to shift west but so much of the track is based on some crazy interactions happening way out west that we could just as likely jump further east if that mess doesn't break our way. Fingers crossed we can make another gif like that one for this weekend should it come to pass.

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Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though.

This isn’t over, but we are suffering a lot from “two steps back, one step forward, repeat” and that one step forward is keeping people way too invested. Minus a handful of off runs this has not been our storm
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Just now, jaydreb said:

I don’t know about that.  Looks further east to me. 
image.thumb.png.deb0de4391b053e9e5ac7a961a764a31.png

18z
image.thumb.png.edd89b9dcc12630242e59eaee689ac96.png

Yeah the vort map looked a smidge better at 84 but after that it pretty much ended up at the same location, just a bit deeper and I guess the surface just ended up getting underway too too far east.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:


This isn’t over, but we are suffering a lot from “two steps back, one step forward, repeat” and that one step forward is keeping people way too invested. Minus a handful of off runs this has not been our storm

It did seem like things were trending our way before the wheels started falling off.  

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15 minutes ago, Snowmadness said:

Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum

Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days 

 

 

4B69C91B-36EF-43C9-BCA8-D6D2ED86E6A2.gif

Generally I'm a lurker as well, but that was 21 years and multiple versions of the models ago. Impossible? No. But less likely than such things used to be. A few years ago, you could ALWAYS count on the west trend and knew where the "good spots" were 2, 3, 4, and 5 days out. Computing, our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, and all of that put into the models, have almost all gotten better.

If I'm gonna hang my hopes on something, it ain't gonna be that.

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Popping in for a quick thought on the storm.

I mentioned last night (Or the night before. I can't remember what day it is on mids), that these Miller B or hybrid types are not our climo, but the threat was certainly not dead. I do like the prospects of some light snow, at the very least while the 5H vort pivots overhead and provides a period of ascent over a pretty suitable airmass. This might be a close miss in the end game, but these storms needs a lot of ingredients to go right for our hood. 

I'm gonna be home for once and it might snow, and I got to tell ya, that is the one thing I am hoping for. Snow falling is just something I enjoy, no matter the intensity. I prefer heavy snow, but who doesn't? If that's a way we can score 1-3" FLUFFY inches, then so be it in my book. 

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