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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, yoda said:
You'd still be complaining non stop because a model took away two inches of snow from you 

If im tracking a new england blizzard for people like kevin wood to enjoy...im gonna make sure i get my moneys worth

No one is expecting a blizzard here.  We're going for 2-4/3-5... that's well within reason and chance.  If we get more, we'll luck be with us.  We all know the rules with Miller Bs

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not saying anyone is wrong. Just saying this is not “our” jumps over the mid Atlantic Miller B lol

You are correct that is isnt jumping right over us. The 18Z GFS popped the coastal at the NC/SC border. Which isnt a horrible spot for us if we had some blocking up top. Problem is we dont.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not saying anyone is wrong. Just saying this is not “our” jumps over the mid Atlantic Miller B lol

It's a hybrid. The too late developer and very common. And leans rather clearly on the Miller B spectrum.  How many miller's As developed too late for us and didn't rain and/or snow anywhere southwest of us?

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

You are correct that is isnt jumping right over us. The 18Z GFS popped the coastal at the NC/SC border. Which isnt a horrible spot for us if we had some blocking up top. Problem is we dont.

Yep. We have to rely entirely on hoping for an amped up / perfectly placed ridge out west, enough digging of the SW, the trough to go negative enough and at the right time, and a perfectly placed coastal low when it pops.

Blocking allows us to not need a royal flush at h5 / 500mb to see a nice snowstorm from a coastal low. Without it, it’s easy for storms to fall apart for our area. Hard to get a perfect upper air setup when there’s so many different variables to consider. 

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