MD Snow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 LPC even does a little left hook/tuck south of nyc on 12k nam. 5”+ dc/Balt and points east to bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12k nam has snow from hr 16 through 33 for Baltimore Man, if this thing tracks just a hair further NW than the NAM depicts, 6” certainly isn’t out of the question for the bal metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: .5-.75 QPF area encroaches on 95 from DC to BAL Need 30 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Total QPF. Sadly, it’s the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2.5” qpf for Nantucket. 2” from ocean city all the way up the coastline to LI. Obviously overdone, but dayum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Check the total qpf map above. Another 50 miles west and it’d be game on for a warning event for the metros Wow, and still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, jayyy said: 12k nam has snow from hr 16 through 33 for Baltimore Man, if this thing tracks just a hair further NW than the NAM depicts, 6” certainly isn’t out of the question for the bal metro *06K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: *06K NAM 6z, yes. It’s the 12K run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Too bad the 32k and 3k nam don’t agree. They are still further E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 wouldnt it be nice out of all the times the models took away our storms that this time we get a storm back from the jaws of defeat just 50 miles more west and so many of us will be happy with our few inchs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ruin said: wouldnt it be nice out of all the times the models took away our storms that this time we get a storm back from the jaws of defeat just 50 miles more west and so many of us will be happy with our few inchs At least what were rooting for — a slightly further west track than what’s being modeled - is a fairly common occurrence. Better digging out west, a slightly earlier phase, the trough a bit sharper, etc. in order to keep the storm relatively close to the coast despite a lack of blocking. The problem is the setup. The lack of any semblance of blocking is the thing leaving me pretty skeptical, but I guess we’ll see if there’s any surprises in store come tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Blizzard warnings issued from coastal DE to NE NJ over to Nantucket and Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: At least what were rooting for — a slightly further west track than what’s being modeled - is a fairly common occurrence. Better digging out west, a slightly earlier phase, the trough a bit sharper, etc. in order to keep the storm relatively close to the coast despite a lack of blocking. The problem is the setup. The lack of any semblance of blocking is the thing leaving me pretty skeptical, but I guess we’ll see if there’s any surprises in store come tonight. I was shocked on a few model runs it was at the bench mark and southern PA north MD VA hardly got anything or nothing. I cant remember the last time a bench mark snow gave so many around i95 nothing esp north and west. tho most of the time we have low going north from the south then transferring off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 That is a superstorm whether it happens or not, it's certainly the way things have been trending all day and night, but confidence in it remains sketchy until at least one of the other models duplicates it. Much further west at initiation, and deepens continuously from east of Hatteras to near Nantucket where it reaches 957 mb with a very tight circulation. Verbatim would probably give much of the Delmarva 15-25 inches, most of NJ 20-30 inches, NYC 18-24, LI 20-30 with monster drifts, CT 20-35 and parts of MA 30-40. Puts BAL in the maybe zone for marginal blizzard and 5-8 inches, DC maybe 2-4? But it's all speculation until we see the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: That is a superstorm whether it happens or not, it's certainly the way things have been trending all day and night, but confidence in it remains sketchy until at least one of the other models duplicates it. Much further west at initiation, and deepens continuously from east of Hatteras to near Nantucket where it reaches 957 mb with a very tight circulation. Verbatim would probably give much of the Delmarva 15-25 inches, most of NJ 20-30 inches, NYC 18-24, LI 20-30 with monster drifts, CT 20-35 and parts of MA 30-40. Puts BAL in the maybe zone for marginal blizzard and 5-8 inches, DC maybe 2-4? But it's all speculation until we see the goods. I understand about having a tight storm and tight circulation. but the same time its a huge storm and the moisture field early on like 6 days ago was huge even the sub 960 L. Ive seen so many storms that have been sub 960 all these mets were shocked by it and were saying no way thats a cat 2 hurricane etc. I chuckled cause in the last 20 years Ive seen so many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: That is a superstorm whether it happens or not, it's certainly the way things have been trending all day and night, but confidence in it remains sketchy until at least one of the other models duplicates it. Much further west at initiation, and deepens continuously from east of Hatteras to near Nantucket where it reaches 957 mb with a very tight circulation. Verbatim would probably give much of the Delmarva 15-25 inches, most of NJ 20-30 inches, NYC 18-24, LI 20-30 with monster drifts, CT 20-35 and parts of MA 30-40. Puts BAL in the maybe zone for marginal blizzard and 5-8 inches, DC maybe 2-4? But it's all speculation until we see the goods. If the GFS comes in more west 8-12 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I keep having to remind myself that we don't know which model (as of its last attempt or any earlier one) is going to prove most accurate, as there is almost no development yet 24-30 hours before a major storm is supposed to be raging and developing somewhere east of the Mid-Atlantic. If this NAM run proves to be the best solution up to let's say the 12z model suite, then nobody must ever speak an ill word of the NAM ever again. until you know, the inevitable happens ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 That AFD out of Bos is something straight out of The Day After Tomorrow. Thats gonna be no place for a jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I keep having to remind myself that we don't know which model (as of its last attempt or any earlier one) is going to prove most accurate, as there is almost no development yet 24-30 hours before a major storm is supposed to be raging and developing somewhere east of the Mid-Atlantic. If this NAM run proves to be the best solution up to let's say the 12z model suite, then nobody must ever speak an ill word of the NAM ever again. until you know, the inevitable happens ... Maybe this time the last minute trends will deliver for the middle atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Too bad the 32k and 3k nam don’t agree. They are still further E 3k sucks like 99.9% of the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Another great disco from Mount Holly. From a forecasting standpoint, the good news is that models are steadily converging on the overall evolution of the winter storm anticipated to affect much of our area during the short-term period. Models continue to exhibit two important trends that are becoming more favorable for significant snowfall in the eastern half or so of the CWA. (1) A southern-stream vort max is trending faster in its migration eastward from the southern Plains on Friday. (2) A northern-stream digging vort max is trending slightly slower and stronger/deeper. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all trending in this direction (to varying degrees and with somewhat varying consistency) with both phenomena, as well as respective ensembles. This has led to a general westward shift in the surface low just off the East Coast attendant to the more quickly phasing large-scale trough in the eastern U.S. Friday night and Saturday (as well as a noticeably deeper and more negatively-tilted trough). Consensus snowfall totals are beginning to increase in areas to the south and east of the Fall Line, and confidence continues to increase that warning-level snow will occur in much if not most of the winter storm watch area. As a result, have upgraded remaining portions of the watch to a warning on this shift. The forecasting challenges tonight have been associated with the margins. For example, how much will snowfall totals decrease on the northwest periphery of the precipitation shield? Well, guidance suggests that this cutoff will be quite sharp, which is unsurprising given the strong push of cold/dry air on the northwest side of the synoptic system. There will likely be a very narrow corridor (read: around or less than 30 miles) where totals go from warning levels to sub-advisory levels, and confidence remains considerably lower on where this corridor will set up. Given the westward shift with the guidance in general the past 24 hours, this looks to be roughly near or more likely a little southeast of the Fall Line (at this time anyway; we will see how this forecast shifts the next couple of cycles). As a result, the adjoining winter weather advisory is for a narrow geographic region: Chester County PA to Sussex County NJ. Forecast snow totals drop off quickly to sub-advisory levels for the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and Berks County; therefore, no advisory was issued for these areas at this time. Another margin: Will portions of the region reach blizzard criteria? Short-range ensemble guidance strongly suggests the near-coast will feature several hours with winds above 30 mph and visibilities near or below a quarter mile. It will be increasingly tough to do farther inland, but think this threat spills into the eastern portions of the inland coastal zones of New Jersey. As a result, have upgraded the winter storm warning in these areas to a blizzard warning. Notably, inland Sussex County in Delaware remains in a winter storm warning, owing to increased uncertainty that these conditions will spill into much more than the immediate Atlantic coast. Blizzard conditions are very tough to meet (reaching the above conditions for 3+ hours), but even if they fall just short in the blizzard-warning area, conditions are very likely to be quite hazardous, with nearly- impossible travel expected. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM actually keeps the low closer to the coast and has been trending closer and closer to where it should be looking at 500mb meanwhile the GFS is trying to fix itself but fails to do so. GFS also busted east till about 12 hours prior on the last storm in VA so it's no surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 SREF Mean did jump heavy high APG MEAN 9.8 BWI 7.0 DC 6.0 Been steadily rising many over the mean and the low Camp is going up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Pretty much all guidance has shifted the coastal low more westward to some degree. The NAM and GFS have an impressive 700 mb low moving right along the coast. Coastal NJ gets hammered on those runs. Coastal DE and MD would also get in on the impressive snow rates just to the left of that h7 vort max, and with the advertised wind, no surprise to see the Blizzard warning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 going into work for ot tomorrow I may leave early since its Kind of on a summit and tricky hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty much all guidance has shifted the coastal low more westward to some degree. The NAM and GFS have an impressive 700 mb low moving right along the coast. Coastal NJ gets hammered on those runs. Coastal DE and MD would also get in on the impressive snow rates just to the left of that h7 vort max, and with the advertised wind, no surprise to see the Blizzard warning. right along the coast maybe we can see some snows then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: right along the coast maybe we can see some snows then? There is likely going to be a sharp cutoff once the coastal gets going. The push of dry Arctic air from the NW is problematic up that way. eta- I misread.. thought you were asking about southern PA. Along the coast is where the best snow will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Good luck shoreline folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nice to see short term / meso models all nudging West as we get closer to game time. Gfs as well, although not as pronounced. It has definitely been interesting to see so many changes from run to run - especially with no current low pressure center to track. Typically there is some semblance of a storm formed 24 hours out for models to track. A typical Miller b would at least have a primary wave to track across the country before the secondary coastal low forms and takes over. This time around, each model is trying to analyze the environment in which a coastal low will form off the Atlantic and the h5 setup leading up to that moment - resulting in a decent amount of variation among models when it comes to surface output despite being < 24 hours out from game time. Interested to watch this all unfold in real time, no matter how it shakes out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Good luck to the eastern folks... I'll be watching on again from the great 2021-2022 snow desert of Fredrick county. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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