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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, yoda said:
It is just after 22 years to the day... maybe... :whistle:

Maybe models have severe issues between jan 25 and 27

I have very fond memories of that event.  Going to bed looking at radar and thinking “hmmm, seems like that precip could get up in here…  Eh, no way.  The Mets/models would know.”

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Somehow I doubt the modern models perform as poorly as the Eta (I wasn't tracking back then in 2000, but I lived in Asheville, NC and missed this storm as I was too far west). 

The long-range models seem to underdo the precip on the NW side of storms though, especially the GFS. Hence the hoping for the last few days that we'll get some NW movement of the snow totals. 

2-4 inches is the forecast and seems reasonable, but I could easily see a world where I get nothing as the northern system transfers to the coastal before giving me anything and then the coastal misses me. I could just as easily see a world where I get 6-8" as the coastal wraps me in a nice band as it deepens and departs NE. 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:
watched Sue Palka at 10. It’s a nothing burger. Turned on Bob Ryan at 11. Get out your shovels. Foot plus with drifts the next morning. I will never forget that

No sue caught it first. Went from flurries to 2-5

That’s fair. But everyone who went to bed before the 11pm news was in utter shock the next morning. At no point would i ever disrespect Sue.

Edit so we just need to get this one to 2–5 by 10pm tomorrow and it’s on

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Everyone should experience it at least once - a heavy snow in Manhattan is magical.  The city just becomes so peaceful - it's f*cking amazing.  It is very fleeting (the inconvenience of a ton of snow in the middle of the city soon becomes apparent).  But man, while it's snowing - nothing like it.  Honestly.

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