Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: Could it be you see a deform taking shape central va to btown Never mind too much Macallan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I wonder if we may see precip breaking out east of the mountains earlier. NAM and RGEM are the earliest but the current radar looks pretty decent coming out of southern OH. Certainly more robust than any of the models have shown for this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 00z RGEM is a low end warning event for Harford and Cecil counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Good animation of the westward nudge of the GFS over the past several runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sterling: && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure will slide offshore tonight. The combination of high cloudsincreasing overnight and a light south flow to start the night should keep low temperatures a bit milder in a relative sense when compared to this morning. A leading atmospheric disturbance ahead of a larger system developing over the central U.S. will likelydeliver some snow shower activity along and west of the Allegheny Front tonight, with generally a coating to an inch or two expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Guidance this evening has trended a little northwest. In addition to this, we are now entering the within 24-hour window for the entire area. Therefore, nudged snowfall up a little from what was inherited and added winter weather advisories across our eastern zones, primarily near and east of I-95. These may need to be expanded into the metro proper given snowfall starting near rush hour and the very low rush-hour criteria over the metro, but will leave that decision to later shifts. Also want to watch guidance trends to see where things land as far as 0Z model shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Someone invited Mike trout to chat with the weenies and morons 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Sterling: && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure will slide offshore tonight. The combination of high cloudsincreasing overnight and a light south flow to start the night should keep low temperatures a bit milder in a relative sense when compared to this morning. A leading atmospheric disturbance ahead of a larger system developing over the central U.S. will likelydeliver some snow shower activity along and west of the Allegheny Front tonight, with generally a coating to an inch or two expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Guidance this evening has trended a little northwest. In addition to this, we are now entering the within 24-hour window for the entire area. Therefore, nudged snowfall up a little from what was inherited and added winter weather advisories across our eastern zones, primarily near and east of I-95. These may need to be expanded into the metro proper given snowfall starting near rush hour and the very low rush-hour criteria over the metro, but will leave that decision to later shifts. Also want to watch guidance trends to see where things land as far as 0Z model shifts. Could have summed it up with “we just can’t know” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Someone invited Mike trout to chat with the weenies and morons Don't call yourself names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Someone invited Mike trout to chat with the weenies and morons If we get him in here that would be EPIC, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Someone invited Mike trout to chat with the weenies and morons https://twitter.com/MikeTrout/status/1486854871743610881?t=g6qqB584yfS5ccOi5m4m1Q&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If we get him in here that would be EPIC, lolHe from Philly. Its possible. All the philly posters post here lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Amazing to watch the GFS just tug westward at 500mb with each run today. Another nudge or two and we're really in the game for a solid cold powder event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Have a feeling the models are going to bust. Earlier close of upper low and tuck...12-18....were due 1 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think the front end can be weenie-willed up to a 5" jackpot, genuinely. LOL, funny sentence, but I just don’t see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Have a feeling the models are going to bust. Earlier close of upper low and tuck...12-18....were due Yea we're like 12 hours off of this becoming a major boom scenario for snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 LOL, funny sentence, but I just don’t see that.think ji’s right above yours might be funnier. I’ve been all in on this feature for a few days now since I’m too west and Millville and some other mets online have been fairly bullish. If it continues to juice up someone will do surprisingly well, I think. 5” might be tough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: think ji’s right above yours might be funnier. I’ve been all in on this feature for a few days now since I’m too west and Millville and some other mets online have been fairly bullish. If it continues to juice up someone will do surprisingly well, I think. 5” might be tough So I’ve lived here forever and I don’t ever remember a similar scenario to what is being forecast (let’s say 1-2”). It seems we either get snow from the coastal or we get totally shut out. When is the last time we got snow in a setup like this (assuming we miss all from the coastal)? I’m legit asking, not being negative or anything. I just can’t recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 So I’ve lived here forever and I don’t ever remember a similar scenario to what is being forecast (let’s say 1-2”). It seems we either get snow from the coastal or we get totally shut out. When is the last time we got snow in a setup like this (assuming we miss all from the coastal)? I’m legit asking, not being negative or anything. I just can’t recall. I’m not knowledgeable enough to answer this so I’d have to phone a friend, lol. I feel like people have been talking this up as a sorta unique set up, so that has its dangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS would be 3 inches in DC...so GFS and RGEM and NAM all suggest that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Swiscaster said: So I’ve lived here forever and I don’t ever remember a similar scenario to what is being forecast (let’s say 1-2”). It seems we either get snow from the coastal or we get totally shut out. When is the last time we got snow in a setup like this (assuming we miss all from the coastal)? I’m legit asking, not being negative or anything. I just can’t recall. 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS would be 3 inches in DC...so GFS and RGEM and NAM all suggest that Cwg made a huge move. From 0-2 to 1-3 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Swiscaster said: So I’ve lived here forever and I don’t ever remember a similar scenario to what is being forecast (let’s say 1-2”). It seems we either get snow from the coastal or we get totally shut out. When is the last time we got snow in a setup like this (assuming we miss all from the coastal)? I’m legit asking, not being negative or anything. I just can’t recall. I think you're right about that...I thought it was was either coastal or shut out too. We almost never get anything in between...which is why I'm surprised we're in the game for much of anything! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 2010 Which one? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m not knowledgeable enough to answer this so I’d have to phone a friend, lol. I feel like people have been talking this up as a sorta unique set up, so that has its dangers. “Unique setup” for DC typically means clean driveway/cartop/trashcantop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Which one? Lol second one. And first weenie WV ob. Trough looks decent out west. Maybe slightly sharper than the models have been saying? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: GFS would be 3 inches in DC...so GFS and RGEM and NAM all suggest that Cwg made a huge move. From 0-2 to 1-3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Swiscaster said: So I’ve lived here forever and I don’t ever remember a similar scenario to what is being forecast (let’s say 1-2”). It seems we either get snow from the coastal or we get totally shut out. When is the last time we got snow in a setup like this (assuming we miss all from the coastal)? I’m legit asking, not being negative or anything. I just can’t recall. We got in the scraps of the storm that this one has been compared to many times because of the Euro/NAM failure in NYC. Boston did get crushed to start their record snow blitz: 1/26/2015. 1-3” started falling in the evening in our area as the coastal was deepening too far east to deliver 20-30” for NYC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: second one. And first weenie WV ob. Trough looks decent out west. Maybe slightly sharper than the models have been saying? Could equal about 50miles west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which one? Lol I think he means the second storm, I wanna say 9-10 Feb. Its the only thing I could think of as well. I got decent snow, yes, and east and north of me got way more, but that was a case where we were all modeled to get some significant snow because the low was juiced coming in from the west. This one is not really juiced until it jumps to the coast, and I just wonder if this patch of light snow would actually materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It is just after 22 years to the day... maybe... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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