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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM is a head scratcher. Everything, too and bottom delayed, sw vortex deeper. Timing still way off on the phase. Still looks like the ns would drop down and just drain the four corners, which is now Mexico border, feature.

Its the NAM

I mean that solution would rob everybody, wouldn't it? Lol

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

It is so frustrating looking at the 500 passes on those 18Z runs and not seeing anything out of it. Every single model has a perfect pass for us. And we get scraps. 

It’s highly doubtful that anything shown on those models past 72 hours is actually correct. General idea maybe. Details, no

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So it's really that much of a discrepancy between 500 and the surface depictions?

Its not really a discrepancy. The storm doesnt get fired up in time for our area. But that is what Miller B's do here. So you just have to be realistic. And take what you can get up front. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is not a Miller B in my eyes D72E5691-3243-471E-8459-FB5B2CC488D2.jpeg.007d76dce5e6c0b7af4ab548f57dcb76.jpeg

Yeah this has changed my perception of the Miller B "look". I guess they don't all have to "look" like the picture on the right (and if the southern wave gets left behind it may as well be that, lol). But it is weird...ours looks like "A" to start and "B" to finish. But the overall process appears to be "B"...except that transfer and tuck process would start a little earlier below us but not enough for us to get in on the "bombing out"

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