NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's worth considering in the future that this GFS run was a cave towards a more EURO/CMC solution for NJ/NYC/LI/Mass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Mount Holly AFD. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Blizzard warning hoisted later tomorrow for coastal DE. Major winter storm to impact the region Friday night through Saturday... Bottom line up front: While there continue be some differences in our forecast guidance, confidence is high enough for our coastal zones of NJ and southern DE to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The remaining zones farther north through the urban corridor remain in a Watch for now as there is still some uncertainty regarding weather amounts here will reach or exceed warning thresholds as we`re still thinking it`ll be right around the 4-7 inch storm total range. And with that it should be said there has been no major change to forecast thinking as most of the latest model guidance (excluding outlier GFS which appears to be too far east) supports storm total snowfall forecast made last night or even suggests amounts will be just a bit higher in some spots, especially near the coast. We also have growing concerns strong winds will be an issue with gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast and 30 to 40 mph inland by Saturday. This will lead to reduced visibilities with blowing / drifting snow. Also some (minor) coastal flooding concerns further discussed in the section below. Getting into the details, rapidly deepening low pressure will move from a position off the SE CONUS coast Friday evening to a point east of Cape Cod by Saturday evening. As this occurs snow will become steadier and heavier and heavier from south to north through Friday evening, reaching the I-95 corridor near or shortly after midnight. It`s when we get into the overnight period we will start to see some periods of heavier snow develop at least over southern DE and coastal NJ...potentially reaching as far north as the I-95 corridor by late at night. Northerly winds will also ramp up through the overnight as well,..reaching 20-30 gusting 35 to 45 mph by Saturday morning near the coast. Temperatures will be cold and we are confident this will be an all snow event, even near the coast. Lows Friday night will range from the teens over much of eastern PA into northern NJ (single digits in Poconos) to low to mid farther S/E. Wind chills will make it feel colder though! For Saturday, intense low will be east of the mid Atlantic coast to start the day as it continues to rapidly deepen. Snow will be ongoing for much of the area with northerly winds continuing to ramp up as well. Snow, potentially heavy at times, near and S/E of the urban corridor will continue through Saturday morning before gradually starting to wind down west to east in the afternoon. It should be noted though that strong winds will continue right through the day as they shift from northerly in the morning to NW heading into the afternoon. Expect winds gusting 30 to potentially as high as 40 mph inland with gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast. This will create significantly reduced visibilities, especially near the coast where visibilities could be near zero at times. Temperatures won`t go up much, generally holding in the 20s so combined with the winds this will create bitter wind chills in the single digits to below zero. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it's much better for the delmarva/southern NJ folks (which this image doesn't show) -- initial wave doesn't suck for us here either stat padder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So far, Arlington County has NOT brined (as far as I can tell) The Hill of Doom. Maybe they're holding off until the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The GFS has incrementally been getting onboard with the rest of the guidance over the last few runs, but 18z was a pretty big adjustment in that direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The GFS has incrementally been getting onboard with the rest of the guidance over the last few runs, but 18z was a pretty big adjustment in that direction. So is a trip to ocean city still a viable option for a blizzard conditions fix? snowfall totals slipping away there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MDsnowPRO said: So is a trip to ocean city still a viable option for a blizzard conditions fix? I would think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM snows on me for almost 24 hours and I get like 2.5” lol. But I’d take it all day and twice on Friday happy hour. GFS with a nice bump west. Let’s do this and move onto the Leaking Gut February blitz. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM snows on me for almost 24 hours and I get like 2.5” lol. But I’d take it all day and twice on Friday happy hour. GFS with a nice bump west. Let’s do this and move onto the Leaking Gut February blitz. Damn lol. Haven't paid attention to the other thread today. What have I missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Y’all should really go to the NE forum and get a load of that thread title. Ngl, I like it. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 probably been mentioned, but i just noticed the precip differences along the coast with the gfs/nam3k/12k are much greater than i expected (mostly been eyeing hampton roads). tough forecast along the coast. 3k has practically nothing in se va whereas 12k/gfs has 0.5"+ precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, jayyy said: Based on NWS’s expected snowfall map, a WAA isn’t going to be issued for anyone west of the bay I could see Sterling going with an advisory from I-95 east but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Tantalizing close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Y’all should really go to the NE forum and get a load of that thread title. Ngl, I like it. Dude I read that last night, gotta be the weeniest thread title in history 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Damn lol. Haven't paid attention to the other thread today. What have I missed? King GFS is leading us to the promised land once again. Join us on our pilgrimage! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Y’all should really go to the NE forum and get a load of that thread title. Ngl, I like it. Lol. I just checked it out. They have a poster in their named Weather Willy. I wonder if Weather Will is moonlighting? Hearing the GEFS came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 At least it ain’t this 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: King GFS is leading us to the promised land once again. Join us on our pilgrimage! It may not be King after its performance with the immediately upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ALEET ALEET ROADS HAVE BEEN BRINED The brine was so bad this morning on RT-28 north of IAD the dust cloud from the passing traffic resembled fog. The lanes were nearly snow white with the stuff. And the naturalists wonder why the Chesapeake has occasional dead zones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, RDM said: The brine was so bad this morning on RT-28 north of IAD the dust cloud from the passing traffic resembled fog. The lanes were nearly snow white with the stuff. And the naturalists wonder why the Chesapeake has occasional dead zones. They may be in cahoots with a car wash... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: It may not be King after its performance with the immediately upcoming storm. After this storm, we might want to consider forming an Autonomous Collective. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: King GFS is leading us to the promised land once again. Join us on our pilgrimage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Actually, I understand that no matter whether one's chicken originates in the Eastern Shore megafacilities or elsewhere, overnutrients get washed into waters and create dead zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Holy hell I missed some things. Speaking of brining roads, they are double brined here. They did it for the Monday event that was lol and now they sprayed again for tomorrow. Gonna invest in beet juice stocks 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Holy hell I missed some things. Speaking of brining roads, they are double brined here. They did it for the Monday event that was lol and now they sprayed again for tomorrow. Gonna invest in beet juice stocks Big Brine be making big plays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well you know I would predict snow if I thought it was coming, but at this point, 1-3" DCA, 3-5" BWI, 8-12" Delmarva and parts of se VA is all I can find. Storm of the century material for LI and New England though. Could be some nasty wind chill values there by late Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: After this storm, we might want to consider forming an Autonomous Collective. This is technically CAPE Storm II. Probably not many remember because they were wrapped up tracking the MLK slop storm, but I was looking ahead and made several posts about this period being favorable for a coastal scraper with the potential for a big storm(bomb cyclone 2!!). Not sure how its going to end up for my yard exactly and I am so tempted to head to Rehoboth, but I need to get back pretty quick so I probably won't go . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Interesting, maybe the models will converge after the new data is in. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Interesting, maybe the models will converge after the new data is in. I’d say they converged pretty hard for our area already 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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