Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Cheers to a good 0z suite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can understand the western crews frustration. Winchester improved 2/10ths of an inch. 5 more similar improvements and they still only get 3”! I think the limitations of this setup are starting to show with how some rather significant improvements in the h5 setup only yield very minimal difference for places NW of 95. It’s mostly improving places further east indicative of a stronger storm due to those improvements but not necessarily one with a further west qpf field. Weve seen almost every combo of angles..movement..phasing...and they all give us at best an advisory event. When is the next window? Ready for some overrunning potential the first week or 2 of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Impressive pressure gradient setting up . Awesome storm to watch unfold . 60 to 70mb difference. Control gets to 956 mb lol with a nice banana high in place . What did the control end up looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can understand the western crews frustration. Winchester improved 2/10ths of an inch. 5 more similar improvements and they still only get 3”! I think the limitations of this setup are starting to show with how some rather significant improvements in the h5 setup only yield very minimal difference for places NW of 95. It’s mostly improving places further east indicative of a stronger storm due to those improvements but not necessarily one with a further west qpf field. Weve seen almost every combo of angles..movement..phasing...and they all give us at best an advisory event. When is the next window? Boundary waves in Feb. but those aren’t long lead tracks. Bunch of waves and we need luck with spacing. Anything with too much room to amplify will cut. Need a string of weaker waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Boundary waves in Feb. but those aren’t long lead tracks. Bunch of waves and we need luck with spacing. Anything with too much room to amplify will cut. Need a string of weaker waves. Long range GFS actually shows that well too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: What did the control end up looking like? 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A very close miss for i95 It was actually worse than 12z. Better track but tighter qpf field. @WxUSAF I agree that our best chance at a decent event might have been from the NS wave but it doesn’t look like the right set up. That trailing vort diving in phases and starts to cut off the SW just before it gets to us. At that point the coastal is going to explode and everything else will shut off. In a way we might end up regretting rooting for the more amplified trend if it stops just short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This would undoubtedly be a classic blizzard DC/ Balt area if it were 150-200 miles west or so That looks like a certain storm that shouldn’t be named… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This would undoubtedly be a classic blizzard DC/ Balt area if it were 150-200 miles west or so The question is... A) Is that still even possible, and b) What would have to happen to get there? (Utter perfection? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: The question is... A) Is that still even possible, and What would have to happen to get there? (Utter perfection? Lol I would say at this point, if that were the case it would be well modeled by now. The big ones are almost always sniffed out by this time frame. We started the month good, but it’s starting to seem the big ones may escape our grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: I would say at this point, if that were the case it would be well modeled by now. The big ones are almost always sniffed out by this time frame. We started the month good, but it’s starting to seem the big ones may escape our grasp. And that's disappointing...because we had an stj in a nina--thought we'd have a chance...and even one time last weekend where we had the moisture perfectly coming up from the south only for the storm to get yanked by random NS junk. And then last week the waves couldn't come together. And then you get to this week, the proverbial "as the pattern breaks down" storm...and it looks to be all or nothing if a Miller B. Progressive patterns are progressive patterns...too many waves for anythinf substantial...lesson learned. Hope we can get a Nino and blocking next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We should shut this thread down. Why are we tracking a new england blizzard 1 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 https://www.33andrain.com/guidebook-ecs/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Ji said: We should shut this thread down. Why are we tracking a new england blizzard While my less logical brain is with ya...because we could still see flakes from this, the thread will probably stay open to the end...even if it's a bitter one, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We should shut this thread down. Why are we tracking a new england blizzard Plenty of time for NYC-Boston to rain while we get snow. I don't say "we" literally. I have no skin in this game right now. Will be near Rochester by the time this storm happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This would undoubtedly be a classic blizzard DC/ Balt area if it were 150-200 miles west or so We would have 100 inches a year if half the storms trended 150-200 miles favorable for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 https://www.33andrain.com/guidebook-ecs/No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I have to admit, we do bad luck here very well. I know climo etc etc, but we do fail miserably quite often. We hit about as often as a 2-7 off suit hits going all-in against 7 other hands still in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If you want to see how we f*ck this up, check out the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If you want to see how we f*ck this up, check out the NAM You don’t want the vort in Vegas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: You don’t want the vort in Vegas? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 What model is this based on? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: What model is this based on? It's the IWM (I wish model) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 What model is this based on? Deep Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Deep Thunder That Cranky dude called it "Deep Blunder"...much more accurate, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Deep Thunder They should rename it to Deep Wishcaster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: What model is this based on? It’s called the rating model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That Cranky dude called it "Deep Blunder"...much more accurate, lololTony Pann loves it, hahahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Lol steve just broke the rich hearts of loudoun County weenies and he probably enjoyed it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: What model is this based on? With all that blue on that map near Richmond, maybe DT will endorse it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 NAM is a head scratcher. Everything, too and bottom delayed, sw vortex deeper. Timing still way off on the phase. Still looks like the ns would drop down and just drain the four corners, which is now Mexico border, feature. Its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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