Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Man NAM is awesome 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12k looks like a fairly long duration snow. At least 7 hours over central and northeastern md. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Maybe picking up on the PRE. If that’s still a thing with this storm lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Coastal low should be right off OBX based on 500 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM parent looks great with the snow, but temps are above freezing until early evening, so it might struggle to accumulate during the daylight hours. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Maybe I'm in the minority but I thought the Nam is Worse. Progressive and more positively tilted. Snow doesnt't break out until later when it has warmed up more and the coastal is going further east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Agree NAM is worse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM parent looks great with the snow, but temps are above freezing until early evening, so it might struggle to accumulate during the daylight hours. Baltimore gets to like 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM is popping a low over the convection in reality this should be NW 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Nam looks juicy 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Was absolutely more juicy on the front side based on prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 At this minute, LWX is only forecasting 0.9" for DCA Hourly Graphical Forecast for 38.87N 77.03W (weather.gov) As a warminista, I want DC's UHI to extend over me and melt it all away. The rest of you can keep all the s***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM parent looks great with the snow, but temps are above freezing until early evening, so it might struggle to accumulate during the daylight hours. edit: and "looks great" should have been "looks improved with the front end snow" and of course, the Nest doesn't look as good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Was absolutely more juicy on the front side based on prior runs You might wanna take a gander at precip totals as opposed to sim radar. It worse for virtually everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The NAM is really the perfect model for me to analyze. If it looks great then it’s sniffing out a trend. If it looks bad…then who gives a f*#* it’s the NAM lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: The NAM is really the perfect model for me to analyze. If it looks great then it’s sniffing out a trend. If it looks bad…then who gives a f*#* it’s the NAM lol I don’t ever care what it shows. All it gets from me is an lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It finally does ditch the convection finally this run but to late. Low corrects far West near the vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: It finally does ditch the convection finally this run but to late. Low corrects far West near the vort I know this is a weenie observation. But it wouldn’t take much for this to be a lot better for the 95 crew. Which is keeping me interested. And i could care less if that means that it could also be off farther to the East because I’m already mostly out of the game verbatim. I’m gonna ride this one to the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Damm strongest MB yet on the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Damm strongest MB yet on the NAM my in-laws are going to get smoked in hancock county maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3k 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Is it possible that models are popping the coastal a bit too east versus where they should be? While it’s hard for me to believe all models are making the same mistake, something seems off. Normally you’d look at 500 and 700 to get a good idea of where the MSLP should pop. The coastal should generally form and track along the baroclinic zone, not on top of convection. NAM isn’t the only model to do it either honestly, the only reason I mention this is because I read through some research on the “baroclinic zone and its affect on east coast winter cyclones” over the last few days after seeing a few METS use the term on twitter. guess we’ll find out soon enough https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249620653_The_Effect_of_Gulf_Stream-induced_Baroclinicity_on_US_East_Coast_Winter_Cyclones 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Man, good thing I don't ever get caught up in board drama. 3 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Worchester, MA snow forecast (10:1) 18z NAM: 20.0” 18z NAM Nest: 3.0” 12z GFS: 1.8” 12z Euro: 9.0” Good luck, forecasters. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: It finally does ditch the convection finally this run but to late. Low corrects far West near the vort This is exactly what I mean. How can this be correct? It looks like it attempts to correct itself, despite no mechanism present to push the storm WNW like that. That’s an odd track, no doubt. Looking at 500 and 700, it seems like the storm (and associated precip shield) should be further west when it gets going initially off the NC coastline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 i mean, tbh, i really can't forecast for shit. so i will give him that 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: This is exactly what I mean. How can this be correct? It looks like it attempts to correct itself, despite no mechanism present to push the storm WNW like that. That’s an odd track, no doubt. Looking at 500 and 700, it seems like the storm (and associated precip shield) should be further west when it gets going initially off the NC coastline. That's what I see. It needs to not fire in the convection. If it does use the west side it's a very different result 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, mappy said: i mean, tbh, i really can't forecast for shit. so i will give him that We still love ya all the same. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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