DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gonna refer to Nj85’s typically incorrect and relatively wish casted model analysis for the euro to see if we can weenie our way back. Is that Steve Demartino? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Euro should be a little better for friday compared to 0z for those that care still. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 38 minutes ago, dtk said: It's a shame that we cannot get consistent simulations for an under-observed, highly chaotic, strongly nonlinear system with finite computing. I need a new career. I know you’re kidding but I think they’ve done very well. If you account for known biases and ignore the one or two outliers each suite the consensus has been extremely consistent for days. Imo some just pay too much attention to every run that nudges slightly closer to what they want even if it’s just noise or guidance bouncing around within the typical range of error for a lead time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's west of 6Z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Honestly would have to dispute that anything has been “extremely consistent “ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro should be a little better for friday compared to 0z for those that care still. Dude, I’m all the f*ck IN. All I’ve wanted this whole week is some minor accumulations and great Friday HH mood setting. 12z runs all seem supportive of that. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: It's west of 6Z Looks a lot like Oz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MDsnowPRO said: Looks a lot like Oz A good bit better than 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Screw WB. Down again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Where is a -NAO when you need one to slow this down just a little bit. Jeeze. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliesmd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Maybe this will help give the east coast mets clarity. Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 261810 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0110 PM EST WED 26 JANUARY 2022 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JANUARY 2022 WSPOD NUMBER.....21-057 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 A. 28/0000Z B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK62 C. 27/1800Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z-28/0230Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG TRACK 62 FOR 29/0000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: A good bit better than 0Z For sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Two to three inches up my way? Yes please and thank you. Would sign on the dotted line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z Euro 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Most encouraging sign I’ve seen at 12z for those of us west of the Bay is that the snow tomorrow has returned and is maybe juicing up a bit. Feeling good at accumulation for most everyone in the subforum. General 1-3” seems like the right call for the metro corridor but there’s certainly scenarios (banding and some ratios) where I think there could be a couple lollipops with 4” or a bit more. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I will take my 1.99999999999999 and like very much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Bunch of alley cats fighting for scraps at this point. At least we aren’t blindly ranking types of soda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dude, I’m all the f*ck IN. All I’ve wanted this whole week is some minor accumulations and great Friday HH mood setting. 12z runs all seem supportive of that. That's all I've been looking for too down here around EZF, 2-3" Friday Afternoon/Evening, good times! Feels like that is very doable! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know you’re kidding but I think they’ve done very well. If you account for known biases and ignore the one or two outliers each suite the consensus has been extremely consistent for days. Imo some just pay too much attention to every run that nudges slightly closer to what they want even if it’s just noise or guidance bouncing around within the typical range of error for a lead time. Indeed, I was kidding and I absolutely love the challenge of trying to contribute to our "Quiet Revolution". We have a lot more to do, but it's pretty darn amazing how far we've come. I have actually been watching model performance more closely than I usually have time for. The GFS set some of its own all-time record high skill for several metrics in the NH in Dec. 2021, followed by a (relatively) rough patch in January. For some perspective and from a high level, we continue to gain about a day of lead time per decade of development and implementation in global NWP.... It's interesting though, and as @Bob ChiII pointed out somewhere else, that doesn't always translate to the anecdotes, individual events, etc. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It bears saying again... On 1/16/2022 at 6:03 PM, caviman2201 said: Moral of the story: It really only takes about 1-2" to make things look awesome outside. We live where we live. We should appreciate everything over a cartopper 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Two to three inches up my way? Yes please and thank you. Would sign on the dotted line. Yeah we need a nice juiced up front end tomorrow. coastal isn't going to do anything for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, ravensrule said: This would be a awesome to get after a long week of watching this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 12 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 omg stop posting his maps. i cannot take it. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: omg stop posting his maps. i cannot take it. My apologies, drinks on me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I need an enigma machine to figure out that start time map. 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: omg stop posting his maps. i cannot take it. I thought my maps sucked haha...Everybody is in all the different start times apparently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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