mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: Yeah, well, my bar is really low. It could possibly get pulled in a bit. Honestly 2-3 inches would be a major success to me at this point. You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z HRRR is a train wreck. As a model, I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This. Just now, mappy said: You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo Heck, this is a rare instance where I am even in a better spot than many of the people on this board. I'm basically on the bay in Pasadena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 lol the ROI on this hobby 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: lol the ROI on this hobby What roi? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, KAOS said: This. Heck, this is a rare instance where I am even in a better spot than many of the people on this board. I'm basically on the bay in Pasadena. Agreed. I've been telling my mom she's in a better spot than me for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: lol the ROI on this hobby At least you can look forward to losing some more ROI and sleep between now and next Sat with the GFS showing a juicy storm next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol the ROI on this hobby Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: At least you can look forward to losing some more ROI and sleep between now and next Sat with the GFS showing a juicy storm next weekend 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ji said: lol the ROI on this hobby There are more pages in this thread than will be snowflakes west of the Blue Ridge. Maybe even IAD. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: There are more pages in this thread than will be snowflakes west of the Blue Ridge. Maybe even IAD. That's what I expect in D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend. True. But, and I think you’ll agree, modeled solutions and reality will diverge the further out in time you go. Reality will either be better or worse than what is modeled at say day 5. Rarely will it be the same. So why does it seem that reality is seldom better than what was modeled? You’d think it would go both ways but seemingly does not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, mappy said: You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo Are you sure? I live in Northern Delaware. Who gets more precip, me? Baltimore? DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: Are you sure? I live in Northern Delaware. Who gets more precip, me? Baltimore? DC? I wasn't referencing the GFS in my post, but your actual forecast from Philly/MtHolly Winter Storm Watch, and 3+ on their snowfall maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS continues to tell folks in western Connecticut and NY that you'll get nothing and like it! Will be interesting to see if it pans out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS continues to tell folks in western Connecticut and NY that you'll get nothing and like it! Will be interesting to see if it pans out If the GFS truly verifies and those spots miss out, it’ll be hard to look at other models for the rest of the year for things other than short-term banding and p-type. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not by much. Another adjustment or two like this.... But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way. The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way. The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. Yeah so far there has been no consistent trend with this storm. Just been going back and forth and correcting to the mean of the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way. The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. Wish more people would read and retain this. So important to grasp these facts and change mindsets so we can be more objective moving forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Finally satellite radar and water vapor into play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: UKIE got worse. Look at the precip totals map. Much worse in fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way. The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. Plenty of us have been mentioning the idea of convergence on a likely ultimate solution, though I suppose you could argue that the run-to-run changes (both within and outside of each suite) have been fairly consistent over the last few days, which fits your take that there have been no real trends - just waffling back and forth that sets the goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The variance in model runs tells me this is a roll of the dice for us west of the bay. Whatever we get, we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The variance in model runs tells me this is a roll of the dice for us west of the bay. Whatever we get, we get. Yea if the dice only had zeros, ones, twos and threes on them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way. The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. It's a shame that we cannot get consistent simulations for an under-observed, highly chaotic, strongly nonlinear system with finite computing. I need a new career. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, dtk said: It's a shame that we cannot get consistent simulations for an under-observed, highly chaotic, strongly nonlinear system with finite computing. I need a new career. We just need the vorts on shore so we can get better sampling. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Honestly, the modeling at a high level has been extremely consistent. This whole time we’ve been trying to weenie-cast a storm to the 95 corridor, while the models have developed it too late and offshore. But, in a shocking twist, the storm is going to develop late and offshore. 21 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I actually laughed out loud! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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