ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'd like to think we can make up that 50 miles, but I think that's a lot to ask at this point given the convergence on a solution that we're seeing now. I agree, though, that if we could get things to go neutral/negative/closed off just a bit west/earlier then we could see much better snows form the coastal west of the bay. I'd love to be wrong, but it seems a really tall order. You’re likely correct. However… it wouldn’t be the first storm this year to end up more amped / west of what was modeled 36 hours out. Flip side, it is also a more complex and different setup than the previous storms were, so there’s no guarantee things shift NW either (no blocking) IDK man. When I see a rapidly deepening coastal low and plenty of cold air around with models flirting 8/9/12” snows just east of the bay 36 hours out… knowing the tendency for models to shift NW slowly but steadily until game time, my hopes aren’t dead for the 95 crew. Frederick, Winchester and WV? Yeah. Way too far west for coastal surprises. But DCA and especially BWI are still in the game. Windows closing very quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS is just playing catchup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's funny. Just by seeing this (and knowing nothing about the tracking the last week), I'd say we were staring at a MECS. Just a bit late getting the trough to go negative is the story for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: It's funny. Just by seeing this (and knowing nothing about the tracking the last week), I'd say we were staring at a MECS. Just a bit late getting the trough to go negative is the story for us. Yup. 6 hours earlier and we would all be kissing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: Yup. 6 hours earlier and we would all be kissing. Its obviously unlikely within the envelope of time we have/we are working with here, but we have seen a few better h5 trends this morning with regards to heights out front and tilting this quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Its obviously unlikely within the envelope of time we have/we are working with here, but we have seen a few better h5 trends this morning with regards to heights out front and tilting this quicker. Unfortunately we are running out of time and the GFS has been rock solid for 3 days now. I'm not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So the GFS develops two lows pressure centers, one of which would be good for us and the other one less so, what is going on here and why does the less favorable low position win out? Or is it some sort of mistake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: Unfortunately we are running out of time and the GFS has been rock solid for 3 days now. I'm not optimistic. Definitely too little too late for most. Will be interesting to see if GFS gets towards the other models or vice versa between now and tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: It's funny. Just by seeing this (and knowing nothing about the tracking the last week), I'd say we were staring at a MECS. Just a bit late getting the trough to go negative is the story for us. i think our best storms have a better defined upper level low or a closed low, though i would have expected better front end precip. seems like there's just too many moving parts in the northern stream and too late of a phase, but still a close call for 95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 it’s a hair better. But it’s pretty clear how this is gonna go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Even still, the 12z gfs did move the QPF field west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: So the GFS develops two lows pressure centers, one of which would be good for us and the other one less so, what is going on here and why does the less favorable low position win out? Or is it some sort of mistake? Good for who? That low is way too far east for the metros. It's fine for OC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Its obviously unlikely within the envelope of time we have/we are working with here, but we have seen a few better h5 trends this morning with regards to heights out front and tilting this quicker. I agree with this, but the thing that's annoying me now is that the trough is a bit broader at 48 on the 12z suite in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i think our best storms have a better defined upper level low or a closed low, though i would have expected better front end precip. seems like there's just too many moving parts in the northern stream and too late of a phase, but still a close call for 95 east. Yeah for sure, some changes would be needed there but still just looking at the panel, I'd be kinda excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Good for who? That low is way too far east for the metros. It's fine for OC. Fine better for us. Any reason why it does what I described though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I agree with this, but the thing that's annoying me now is that the trough is a bit broader at 48 on the 12z suite in general. Yep, looking at the previous 2 GFS runs, its back further SW and a bit deeper/slightly more negative, but the base is broadening. NAM did that too, because on 12z today it too was a better orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: So the GFS develops two lows pressure centers, one of which would be good for us and the other one less so, what is going on here and why does the less favorable low position win out? Or is it some sort of mistake? if I had to guess, its struggling with the low placement at the surface. your best bet is to pay attention to the 500/700 levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Yep, looking at the previous 2 GFS runs, its back further SW and a bit deeper/slightly more negative, but the base is broadening. NAM did that too, because on 12z today it too was a better orientation. I think the broadness is causing it to escape east initially (following convection on all models) since more energy is not consolidating at the base if it were sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: if I had to guess, its struggling with the low placement at the surface. your best bet is to pay attention to the 500/700 levels yea, i think it's a product of a late phase as well. the lp takes time to build to the surface while waiting on the upper level energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: I think the broadness is causing it to escape east initially (following convection on all models) since more energy is not consolidating at the base if it were sharper. So just need the trough to sharpen at HH. Then one big push west at 0z and everybody eats. Not going to happen but this is the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: yea, i think it's a product of a late phase as well. the lp takes time to build to the surface while waiting on the upper level energy. yes, that too. as others have said, if the phase was happening 6hrs earlier, we'd be golden. but its happening too close to our latitude, which doesn't do much for us west of the bay. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Squinting at black and white GGEM maps. Looks pretty similar to 0z? Maybe slightly sharper western precip gradient, but hard to be sure. Probably still way more of a hit than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Well the GFS continues to baby step its way closer to us. Thats about the only good news. But is it too little too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Well the GFS continues to baby step its way closer to us. Thats about the only good news. But is it too little too late? The low is nowhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The low is nowhere close. Yeah, well, my bar is really low. It could possibly get pulled in a bit. Honestly 2-3 inches would be a major success to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts