WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is crazy complex, evidently. Never seen models change so much based on nearly imperceptible changes at h5. Ill stick to what I said earlier. It may be tonight before we know. Heck it might be tomorrow morning. Lol We've known for days. How did the rectal checkup go? Good. How’d your lobotomy go? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Just a shame they waited until the Euro went from king to useless. Coincidence? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas. psu fringe alert for my yard lol. I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Why do the gods of precip hate Winchester so much? Lol Said this a couple days ago. I hope every low from now on goes straight up the OH valley. So sick of being fringed out by these coastals. Everyone of these has fringed us since 2016. Give me a WAA thump followed by light drizzle, dry slot, then cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good. How’d your lobotomy go? They couldn't find anything so had to reschedule to give it time to grow some more 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, frd said: I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations. I am just NW of the 0.5" line on the 6z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Said this a couple days ago. I hope every low from now on goes straight up the OH valley. So sick of being fringed out by these coastals. Everyone of these has fringed us since 2016. Give me a WAA thump followed by light drizzle, dry slot, then cold front. really moved toward a nothing burger without cheese and bun at my house too. looking at the euro I might not see anything because this time I am too far west...go figure. MBY has been a lot of things but too far west is relatively new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen. This seems like you’re contradicting yourself in this post. 50 miles for ppl like @CAPE and our southern MD and eastern shore folks means quite a bit. I don’t see any issues with ppl watching models and hoping for some better runs to the corridor. .5 qpf on the euro is like 50-60 miles east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 110 pages for this? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen. We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing. Yeah, a low is going to be out there, that is about all i'm on board with. Guidance has shifted from perhaps 1" to over 12+" in my backyard the last few days. Just waiting for tomorrow evening to get here so I can gaze at a radar and out of my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 55 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wouldn’t be the first time we saw big changes inside 48 hours this winter. January 3rd looked fairly lost until 48hr out. The storm after that looked good for us pretty much all week long, went way west in the final 48hr and still ended up tracking west of what was progged hours before the storm hit. This storm could also end up even worse than what’s being modeled (energy’s left behind, late / weak phase, etc) Def. not expecting some magical massive shift that gives us all a foot, but I also wont completely rule out a 3-6” storm along 95 either given the clear lack of consensus among models in such a complex setup. Long shot or not. Feeling the potential of big changes today. Lol I don’t give up until it’s over! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing. Everyone should read the disco I posted earlier. Folks along and even NW of I-95 should be pretty interested in the next few model cycles, in addition to those of us further east. A few inches in those locations is still a possibility, maybe more if a 0z CMC like solution ends up more correct. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The EPS is east of 0Z. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: 110 pages for this? you're free to leave 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Not changing any of my thoughts. Just going with climo for how these things pan out here. 1-3 for Shenandoah Valley is still my call. Hope you guys to the east get crushed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, Interstate said: Even better is they got H5 data too. Still not as robust as PW though. I just wish PW had the previous model run arrows. That is the best thing about TT. Oh wow...dang. didn't realize that. Goodbye pivotal EURO is now free since it is a clearance model. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The EPS is east of 0Z. Its going to be in lock step with the op now. Op went east a tad so it was expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If the euro is right i need it to be a 35-1 ratio to get my expected call. Oh well, at least i don't get paid to predict 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If the euro is right i need it to be a 35-1 ratio to get my expected call. Oh well, at least i don't get paid to predict Say it with me "kuchera" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 110 pages for this?Oh and a bunch of "Wide Right of Left" potential Storm There's always next weekend, but probably that will go to Ohio "Wide Left of Right"Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 As we try to sort through all of the disagreement between the models, one thing that stands out to me is how much the GFS and NAM Nest agree on the precip field. I have no idea how this is going to play out, when the NAM and GFS disagree, but the NAM Nest is close to the GFS, I take notice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hrrr says though break for the coast even. Looks more like gfs than anything. Feel bad for NWS out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 59 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The EPS is east of 0Z. Should we still be using the ens for an event starting in 36 hrs? Seems there should be less weight on ens and more on the ops at this range, particularly mesos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 WB 9Z SREFs ticked east with precipitation field as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We need some new data lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam with some positive changes through only 18. I know the main coastal part is long gone for 95 more than likely but how close it gets seems to corelate to the friday evening stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Before any morning runs, I’m gonna suppose that we get skunked here. If that happens, I will point out out that this will be the third potential winter event here this year lost due to lack of precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Did anybody else’s TT turn to blue on their phone? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 this could be an improvement 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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