MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It’s not radically different. Exactly. We needed a west jump, but it jumped east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I am just so done with this storm. No reason the NAM had to even go west at 0z when we were talking booze in the banter thread. Then the JV models aka RGEM and ICON move way west, so does the GGEM, JMA, and UKMET. It's probably called convergence folks. 12z better put an end to this nonsense. This one is going to hurt more than usual. But such is life when you’re trying to kick a 90 yard field goal through a 5 foot upright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: High near perfect and not suppressive and low not a monster but strong enough and 540 way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: High near perfect and not suppressive and low not a monster but strong enough and 540 way south Low needs to be tucked into the coast for this to really do what we want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Quite a few models have depicted heavy snow out over the Atlantic between southern NJ and Long Island, where water temps are near 50F and not too far from where they are 60-70 F. Makes me think that when the storm actually comes together it will try to tuck and form a double centered structure with fronts pressing closer to the coast, whether that pushes the snow very far inland or not, I don't expect that 15" of snow would fall 50-100 miles out into the ocean, it would be 37-40F and raining hard out there with the arctic front about 50 miles off the coast. This might also argue for an even deeper low and stronger winds. At least one of ACY, OCE and ORF will get a heavy snowfall out of this, maybe two or all three will. Potential is 15-25 inches. Obviously Long Island and New England will get blitzed. Local 20-30" amounts there. My hunch is DCA gets about 3" and BWI about 5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Thanks for that analysis. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just caught up from being at work from 6pm till now .. geez what a model war 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hmmmm.... AKQ went WSW including i95 corridor URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 VAZ064-075>078-080>083-085-511-512-514>522-271630- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.220128T2100Z-220129T2100Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Lewisetta, Alfonso, Beanes Corner, Brook Vale, Kilmarnock, Lancaster, Lively, Regina, Reams, Petersburg, Hopewell, Barnetts, Wayside, Roxbury, Bottoms Bridge, Browns Corner, Mountcastle, New Kent Airport, Orapax Farms, Quinton, Talleysville, Grafton, Harmony Village, Church View, Cooper, Healys, Jamaica, Nesting, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, Sandston, Aylett, King William, West Point, Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork, Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, Saint Stephens Church, King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 330 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible with locally higher amounts possible toward the Chesapeake Bay. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, and up to 40 mph along the Chesapeake Bay. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, north central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrapinwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z NAM similar to 0z. NE Md does better this run with a more N-S precip orientation . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 31 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said: 6z NAM similar to 0z. NE Md does better this run with a more N-S precip orientation . Eastern shore lost a solid 0.4+ of qpf on this run. Gonna be tough watching heavy snow on the radar east of the bay, whether it’s 6” or 12+ Think I’ve made my decision on where I’ll be staying for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 OKX is expecting a sharp cutoff and they are way further north and east of us. Lived in the NYC suburbs for 25+ years. Love the Mets over at OKX. They typically do a great job forecasting these types of setups. Discussed this the other day a bit. With Miller b’s, my folks area typically sees either: 1) 3-6” (east tracking Miller b w/ little to no blocking) while LI to cape cod get 12+ 2) 6-12”+ and Long Island gets 4-8+ with mixing or rain in the Hamptons (coastal hugger with blocking. Can see 12-24+ in a slow mover) They are going with option 1 for obvious reasons. Fujny enough, the 5.5” shown on the map for the town new city (NW of NYC) is my hometown. One thing is for sure, I’m not going to chase 5.5”. I suspect we’ll begin to see models converge in the coming few runs as they get a handle on what’s going on out west in real time. Still a good amount of differences among models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 06z RGEM paints a 3-4" over DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z RGEM paints a 3-4" over DCA Could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... During the day on Friday, the upper trough will continue to sharpen in nature, with the axis of lift from this disturbance pushing further south and east beyond the Allegheny Front. This is when we start to see PoPs increase for the remainder of the area, with some areas maybe starting out as a wintry mix as temperatures briefly struggle to be below freezing during the day on Friday (mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains). Closer to sunset, temperatures should drop below freezing throughout and mostly snowfall will be felt from then throughout the remainder of the event. There has not been a dramatic change with the upper trough timing over the last two cycle runs. The other component to this event continues to be a rapidly deepening low pressure system poised to form off the Carolina's coast. With the continued lack of strong northern Atlantic blocking, the low continues to show a more offshore solution. This continues to keep a widespread high accumulating snowfall out of a large portion of the CWA. As mentioned over the last few days, the gradient though for watch/warning/advisory criteria continues to linger across the I-95 corridor. Confidence remains a bit limited due to the volatility in the model guidance. In terms of totals, higher amounts remain located across far southern MD and points further northeast of there. Still seeing a signal for lesser totals across portions of north-central MD where there is less forcing and lift. The reasonable worst case scenario continues to relay the potential west shift in the low that could bring much higher totals further inland. Another item worth mentioning is the potential for some higher banding as seen in some of the higher-res guidance. This may be due to the upper trough dynamics interacting with the offshore low and intensifying moisture availability with already accelerated lift for the event. Will continue to monitor the latest trends in the guidance and create any needed headlines in the near future. Visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest winter headlines. With increased pressure gradient in place for the event, confidence in gusty winds is higher than snow amounts/track at this time. Will likely see the potential for dangerously cold wind chills Saturday night and blowing snow Saturday into Saturday evening. Should see conditions improving from west to east late Saturday morning (just east of the mountains) to Saturday evening (I-95 corridor). Upslope snow may continue slightly longer during the day on Saturday for the Allegheny Front. Behind the low, high pressure returns for the area, leaving dry conditions while still remaining cold. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This was the 06z NAM FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Morning AFD from Mount Holly. Interesting, excellent, and detailed. It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which basically describes the model variability we have seen the past couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event. The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area. The model volatility with this system has been something to behold. Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1) inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10) inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes in subsequent forecasts. Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth, orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max, which results in upper low development farther east (and generally too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large- scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread, which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble output from its suite. With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier, tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I- 95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6 inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas, and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ. Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to the event. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 the giant spread of models jumping all over the place just adds to how much models cant latch on to some energy blocking etc. Its hard I know but it feels that these models are getting worse esp in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 hours ago, MDsnowPRO said: Low needs to be tucked into the coast for this to really do what we want it to. It will. We're WILLING this one home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Current forecast is for 4-8" here, 7-13" in S DE. Seems about right excluding the GFS, but decent bust potential with all the intricacies involved. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Current forecast is for 4-8" here, 7-13" in S DE. Seems about right excluding the GFS, but decent bust potential with with all the intricacies involved. You also have a coveted WSW up lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ruin said: the giant spread of models jumping all over the place just adds to how much models cant latch on to some energy blocking etc. Its hard I know but it feels that these models are getting worse esp in the winter. Have you been paying attention? You could have simply read the post that preceded yours to gain a little insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looking forward to @MillvilleWx's morning take on the situation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Current forecast is for 4-8" here, 7-13" in S DE. Seems about right excluding the GFS, but decent bust potential with with all the intricacies involved. I think that's a solid starting point given all the variables at play. Gun to head right now, I'd probably roll with 5-9" at your place, 7-12" at SBY and 8-14" with local 18" on the coast from Fenwick to Rehoboth. I think the western edge will be super sharp with a gradient of 1-3" for FDK to the fall line, 2-4" along I-95 with 3-6" for each shore of the Chesapeake. I'm concerned about areas NW of the fall line because of the southern trend of the PVA max for Fri. If that doesn't materialize to the north, some places may get totally skunked. Man, if only we had a little blocking. Woof 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Notable improvement on the 6z GFS. A step towards consensus. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Have you been paying attention? You could have simply read the post that preceded yours to gain a little insight. Im on my phone atm not going to scroll forever to read posts from a few hours ago. if the post was right before mine maybe I wrote this as the post your referring to was posted I was also talking about how the models just changed in one run thats a valid point. If thats due to feedback problems the models not seeing something or the models seeing something now they didnt see the run before none the less my point of view remains and is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The summary by Mount Holly really said pretty much anything I could ever add to this situation. The handling of each piece is so intricate that even a shift of 50 miles or timing of each feature off by hrs can add magnitudes of variability in the forecast after 00z Saturday. I think models are having a better time with the overall SLP generation on initial positioning down off the SC/GA coast, but the variability comes in with the motion to the north, especially once east of HSE. Pending the overall sharpness and negative tilt of the trough, fluctuations can occur that will have major implications on the expansion of the shield to the west. A strengthening mid-level jet max rolling around the base of the trough will aim towards the Tidewater of VA into the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Even with the GFS eastern bias, the mean right now for the Lower ES is still pretty positive for a warning level event, so the prospects of a warning are probably tied at least 80%, which jives with the NWS Winter Severity Index that updated this AM. My current thinking is above from my previous post, but I'll go ahead and quote tweet it here for people to see. 13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I think that's a solid starting point given all the variables at play. Gun to head right now, I'd probably roll with 5-9" at your place, 7-12" at SBY and 8-14" with local 18" on the coast from Fenwick to Rehoboth. I think the western edge will be super sharp with a gradient of 1-3" for FDK to the fall line, 2-4" along I-95 with 3-6" for each shore of the Chesapeake. I'm concerned about areas NW of the fall line because of the southern trend of the PVA max for Fri. If that doesn't materialize to the north, some places may get totally skunked. Man, if only we had a little blocking. Woof I actually have UA balloon duty this AM and then I leave at 6 AM to pick up my wife to head to the airport to start vacation. I'll try to have more thoughts later today on everything after getting some time to diagnose model guidance through the 12z suite. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 When did tropicaltidbits.com get ecwmf precip. That's huge 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ji said: When did tropicaltidbits.com get ecwmf precip. That's huge Even better is they got H5 data too. Still not as robust as PW though. I just wish PW had the previous model run arrows. That is the best thing about TT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ji said: When did tropicaltidbits.com get ecwmf precip. That's huge Today I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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