baltosquid Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If the GFS ends up caving in the morning after a run like that, it'll have "Flowers For Charlie" vibes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: OC flirting with the mix line excites me in itself Now if we can just get usedtube to flirt with that ice line we are in buisness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wouldn’t want to be forecasting for the eastern shore right now, that’s for sure. Hello folks, ya so in about 48hrs expect some snow showers or a full on 1-2’ blizzard. Cause you know…F it… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Wouldn’t want to be forecasting for the eastern shore right now, that’s for sure. Hello folks, ya so in about 48hrs expect some snow showers or a full on 1-2’ blizzard. Cause you know…F it… Or for NYC, or for Boston. Don’t remember any storm like this in the last 5+++ years, so close in, with so much wild uncertainty for so many millions of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Check out they REPS. They are solid! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NWS Mets over here like. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Such a subtle change at H5 out west with the southern vort and the northern vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 @DCAlexandria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I don’t know if we like him anymore or not, and this might be wishcasting, but it is an interesting explanation of the 0z suite so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: GEM looks fairly similar to NAM, a big hit for the coastal regions, some snow back to west of DC, probably in the 3-6" range for DC, 6-8" BAL, 10-20" DMV. Can't see all this energy interacting with the warm water to produce a GFS result, seems to ignore the development at 500 mb. If there were extra upper air obs they weren't plotted on the 00z CMC maps by the way. In the past when I've heard about these extra obs, they show up in the investigation zone on the maps. I think if the ECM is not a clone of the GFS then the GFS will have to be taken as dubious guidance, if ECM looks like GFS then we wait for a decision tomorrow. Roger, any similarities to this storm and Feb. 5-7, 1978 in terms of coastal snow and wind impacts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterFire said: I don’t know if we like him anymore or not, and this might be wishcasting, but it is an interesting explanation of the 0z suite so far: My issue is it's easy to say 'bad data' but that doesn't account for the many times it's never second guessed when it shows what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: My issue is it's easy to say 'bad data' but that doesn't account for the many times it's never second guessed when it shows what you want. This my local Mets just embraced the jog west and locked it in. But models shows western tracks or a jog they say to early to call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: My issue is it's easy to say 'bad data' but that doesn't account for the many times it's never second guessed when it shows what you want. One model. All alone. One. Makes little sense. Not “no sense”. But little sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Here's a bit more detailed version of that UKMET map. For reference, 12z had 0" QPF for DC and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ruin said: This my local Mets just embraced the job west and locked it in. But models shows western tracks or a job they say to early to call Get some rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Roger, any similarities to this storm and Feb. 5-7, 1978 in terms of coastal snow and wind impacts? Structural differences, the 1978 storm was trapped below a much stronger high and was not progressive, the 1980 storm that I mentioned followed a track similar to what the NAM was showing earlier. There might end up being similar snow totals in some places even so. The Mar 1 to 3 1980 storm dropped a tremendous amount of snow around Virginia Beach if I remember correctly there were reports of 24-28 inches and five to ten foot drifts. DC had about 8-10" and there was no snow at all in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Man, where is everyone... usual players must have all thrown in the towel right before an epic west shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: My issue is it's easy to say 'bad data' but that doesn't account for the many times it's never second guessed when it shows what you want. Eh if it’s a single outlier this close in I think it would be, to an extent at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, weathercoins said: Eh if it’s a single outlier this close in I think it would be, to an extent at least Yeah I mean...we'll see what the Euro says...if that comes back west too then you'd have to think there's a problem. THIS close in, if the GFS is right, you'd think the models we would see the other models going more towards it not shifting west of it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 hours ago, yoda said: Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF Ha, that's the first thing I thought when I saw those progs a few days ago. Looks just like a PRE setup, but in January. They can persist for some time and it's that kind of setup (mid-level f-gen max across the DGZ) that can overperform pretty nicely. Might end up being the thing that "saves" the event for most of the subforum. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, WinterFire said: I don’t know if we like him anymore or not, and this might be wishcasting, but it is an interesting explanation of the 0z suite so far: He's on the level. Was (correctly) poo-pooing the events last week because of the missed phase (among other issues). Personally, I want to see a continuation through 12z and no more "diurnal rocking" before committing. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Holy hell. What did I miss 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Holy hell. What did I miss Whoever was here stay, its the superstition we had goin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It’s about that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The King GFS spares no wrath for the weenies, but the rest of the model kingdom may stand against it. The Queen Euro will take position soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Almost time for Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 lets do this Ps if the euro looks like the gfs I'm kicking a scratch off machine somewhere ASAP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: lets do this Let’s light this candle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: lets do this Ps if the euro looks like the gfs I'm kicking a scratch off machine somewhere ASAP Oh lord not again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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