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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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Jaws meter comes out if and only if the GFS makes a strong adjustment towards the coast as the mesos and ICON have done ;). Until then, gotta remember what psu said - this is all bouncing around the goalposts we already were familiar with. As for the RGEM specifically, I will probably never trust that model after the 30 something inch run it had for Baltimore a few days before that multi-day storm last year, think it was the late January one.

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Just now, nj2va said:

ALEET ALEET

The ICON is a trash model and shouldn’t be looked at. 

Trust them with details, no, but seen if the physics that are being used also show solutions that are lining up with other models, not the worst idea. If they are radically different then I would not trust them, but if they back up other models and raises my confidence a small amount.. Small amount though

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13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

yeah the RGEM came way NW, thats not an exaggeration 

lol...each west shift is a recovery for an even worse east shift. It feels like we keep riding this treadmill to nowhere. We need to see 3-4 runs tomorrow where we just get west shift/ticks

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