weathercoins Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah, I feel terrible for dropping false hope. I promise you I won't be back. Plus I've had like a bottle of wine and my old ass is about to hit the bed. Good luck tho, seriously. Don’t think you dropped false hope. It’s a better run even if it’s not the *best* run at the surface. Keeps us in this silly game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The high-res FV3 isn't gonna join the 12k NAM's party, but I haven't been impressed with that thing at "range" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I really don't feel like the west shift is done. Most of the time these systems continue west to game time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Need some more special upper air obs…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 amazing -- screw Boston, it's all about Norfolk these days.It's the NAMSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: I really don't feel like the west shift is done. Most of the time these systems continue west to game time Seems to happen more times than not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said: It's the NAM Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I’ll hold the door for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Obx gets slammed with wind from the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 There is no west shift. It's not even close to last nights 00z run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Presumably Garrett and Tucker will get a lot more from upslope than would show on the models. That usually isn't modeled very well. Yeah, undermodeled as is the orographic lift, I’ve noticed. I don’t think this is an ideal upslope scenario though with the position of that LP being that offshore and heading ENE. There’s a good deal of energy on the backside of the trough swinging through so that’s the wildcard. Will definitely get enhancement from upslope but don’t think it’ll be huge. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3K is better but it’s still no dice for west of the bay. Lot better for eastern shore though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: It's the NAM Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I thought we were analyzing the DGEX this whole time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It’s the NAM. But, and my only comment for the night … of all the storms I’ve ever followed, I think this is the most intricate that I’ve ever seen. The smallest of things seem to have a huge outcome on what actually might happen. I truly do not think we will know what may happen until tomorrow night at the earliest. And no, I don’t think I’m gonna suddenly get six inches of snow. But this is wild. Im going to bed tonight thinking it may snow. Who knows. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM be trollin. I’m sure GFS will come crush all hope. Hope not but probably. Haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I wanted to wait to post this after the models confirmed what I've known all along but I didn't want to post until they showed what I was thinking. 2" for my back yard...sorry folks just saying what I knew would happen but wanted to wait to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM is playing with my emotions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM be trollin. I’m sure GFS will come crush all hope. Hope not but probably. HahaMost likely will be wide right of left. Punt awaySent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The King GFS has a habit of frying weenies these days. Perhaps it will be merciful and follow the lead of its jester, the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, Amped said: One hell of a cutoff running along I95 especially near NYC just a 1"-30" range for America's largest city 60 hours out, what could go wrong? models rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Icon also much improved at 30hrs. Has the NS digging further west like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I wanted to wait to post this after the models confirmed what I've known all along but I didn't want to post until they showed what I was thinking. 2" for my back yard...sorry folks just saying what I knew would happen but wanted to wait to say it. so you're Leesburg to Sykesville to Broadlands to Aldie? which "back yard"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: Icon also much improved at 30hrs. Has the NS digging further west like the NAM. I was going to say I just went and looked at the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Icon coming in line, low tucked closer to coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 ICON & RGEM both look west to me thus far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: ICON & RGEM both look west to me thus far? RGEM looks like .4" QPF through DCA. 18z was just barely 0.1", so I would say that is a definite improvement. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Icon coming in line, low tucked closer to coast Closer to the coast is a dangerous set of words...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rgem 3-5? What is happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: ICON & RGEM both look west to me thus far? RGEM wayyyy NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Rgem 3-5? What is happening. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, frd said: RGEM wayyyy NW They're both a nice chunk in the right direction... abscond! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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