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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While it's clear west of I-95 is out of the game, I'm happy to see our lowland and Delmarva folks get a W here. They've suffered so much for years while we win. Enjoy y'all, but I demand pictures!

They’ve been hammered multiple times since we were last slammed in January 2016.

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

No doubt this is a miller B

This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Personally I hope you get hammered. 

 I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5".

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Hopefully it clouds up really early tomorrow to prevent a temp spike. Light daytime snow with a temp of 33-35 won’t do didley. Hopefully it overperforms but our luck its shuts of quickly while the rest of the east coast celebrates. ☹️
 

just amazing that no matter the H5 look or position of the coastal low the precip field has allergic to the immediate metro every run. 

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

 I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5".

But you can drive to it easily. And DFH? In the snow??? Epic.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary 

Serious question, because I don’t know. What would you call a low that travels from say the Oklahoma panhandle to Nashville to Huntington and then jumps to about Va beach. Also with a 1035 high parked over New Hampshire for cad? Because that’s what I dream of.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5".

I didn’t realize you are at 14 inches for the winter.  

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3 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Hopefully it clouds up really early tomorrow to prevent a temp spike. Light daytime snow with a temp of 33-35 won’t do didley. Hopefully it overperforms but our luck its shuts of quickly while the rest of the east coast celebrates. ☹️
 

just amazing that no matter the H5 look or position of the coastal low the precip field has allergic to the immediate metro every run. 

I think we will be cloudy at dawn 

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

But you can drive to it easily. And DFH? In the snow??? Epic.

I knowww! And I really think there is a chance it could rival 2018 there. Still tempted, but last time I didn't account for everything being shut(including DFH:yikes:) and trying to get out of there lol.

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13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Good f-ing lord, that 18z euro lmao Models showing a cool 30”+ spread in SNE only 24 hours out. Taunton must be having fun with this one 

Snippet from Boston AFD. Good stuff. Funny the sampling thing again!

Still enough spread in the deterministic and ensemble suite of guidance to make for a somewhat uncertain forecast with respect to snowfall amounts and axis of heaviest snowfall. However, the trend in the guidance has been further east. The GEFS ensembles are pretty much all near or S and E of the benchmark with main focus for heavy snow across SE New Eng. However, the Canadian Ensembles and especially RGEM (Canadian 10km) has now caved to the EC and tracks a bomb cyclone near the 70W/40N benchmark, which is typically the indicator for heavy snow potential across the I-95 corridor in RI and eastern MA. This does put the American models (GFS and NAM) as outliers against the international guidance. So all eyes are on the Thursday 12z guidance. Even though the GFS did not quite cave in to the international guidance, there was a notable westward jog, which suggests that an out-to-sea and/or shut out condition (bust scenario) is looking less likely. A note about the NAM is that even though it is great for deep East Coast cyclogenesis events, we have to take its output with a huge grain of salt until we are within 36 hours, and especially 24 hours. For example, the Wed 18z run was rather extreme in that it swung from a hit for Eastern MA/RI at 12z to almost a complete miss for most of our CWA at 18z. That was a red flag as in the forecasting world, we want to see model continuity. That also indicates that the NAM was still struggling to sample the jet energy, which was up in the Yukon Territories at that time and removed from upper air sampling sites.

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127 pages and I’m looking at maybe MAYBE 3”. Family and friends tell me I’m an effing lunatic for spending countless hours reading and chatting with weather nerds about how much snow we might (or might not) have. Couldn’t agree more with them and damn it’s addicting! I love you all. Even Ctrl-Alt-Delete Tim. :lol:
 

eta: 128 pages! I’m slow. 

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

127 pages and I’m looking at maybe MAYBE 3”. Family and friends tell me I’m an effing lunatic for spending countless hours reading and chatting with weather nerds about how much snow we might (or might not) have. Couldn’t agree more with them and damn it’s addicting! I love you all. Even Ctrl-Alt-Delete Tim. :lol:

I love him too

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