WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Yeah that frontrunner/PRE/whatever the eff might get it done there. Herpderp had clear banding within that right along Rt 50. Someone might have a mini-jack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Personally I hope you get hammered. Yeah why not I’ll root for fellow booze aficionado @CAPE. Now if only he liked playing poker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: While it's clear west of I-95 is out of the game, I'm happy to see our lowland and Delmarva folks get a W here. They've suffered so much for years while we win. Enjoy y'all, but I demand pictures! They’ve been hammered multiple times since we were last slammed in January 2016. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ji said: No doubt this is a miller B This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Personally I hope you get hammered. I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Herpderp had clear banding within that right along Rt 50. Someone might have a mini-jack. I'm just off of 50 and 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hopefully it clouds up really early tomorrow to prevent a temp spike. Light daytime snow with a temp of 33-35 won’t do didley. Hopefully it overperforms but our luck its shuts of quickly while the rest of the east coast celebrates. ☹️ just amazing that no matter the H5 look or position of the coastal low the precip field has allergic to the immediate metro every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5". But you can drive to it easily. And DFH? In the snow??? Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary Serious question, because I don’t know. What would you call a low that travels from say the Oklahoma panhandle to Nashville to Huntington and then jumps to about Va beach. Also with a 1035 high parked over New Hampshire for cad? Because that’s what I dream of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Good f-ing lord, that 18z euro lmao Models showing a cool 30”+ spread in SNE only 24 hours out. Taunton must be having fun with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5". I didn’t realize you are at 14 inches for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Hopefully it clouds up really early tomorrow to prevent a temp spike. Light daytime snow with a temp of 33-35 won’t do didley. Hopefully it overperforms but our luck its shuts of quickly while the rest of the east coast celebrates. ☹️ just amazing that no matter the H5 look or position of the coastal low the precip field has allergic to the immediate metro every run. I think we will be cloudy at dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: But you can drive to it easily. And DFH? In the snow??? Epic. I knowww! And I really think there is a chance it could rival 2018 there. Still tempted, but last time I didn't account for everything being shut(including DFH) and trying to get out of there lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I didn’t realize you are at 14 inches for the winter. 13.5" I think. It's in the other thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 13.5" I think. It's in the other thread. Wow. Not a bad show for January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, jayyy said: Good f-ing lord, that 18z euro lmao Models showing a cool 30”+ spread in SNE only 24 hours out. Taunton must be having fun with this one Snippet from Boston AFD. Good stuff. Funny the sampling thing again! Still enough spread in the deterministic and ensemble suite of guidance to make for a somewhat uncertain forecast with respect to snowfall amounts and axis of heaviest snowfall. However, the trend in the guidance has been further east. The GEFS ensembles are pretty much all near or S and E of the benchmark with main focus for heavy snow across SE New Eng. However, the Canadian Ensembles and especially RGEM (Canadian 10km) has now caved to the EC and tracks a bomb cyclone near the 70W/40N benchmark, which is typically the indicator for heavy snow potential across the I-95 corridor in RI and eastern MA. This does put the American models (GFS and NAM) as outliers against the international guidance. So all eyes are on the Thursday 12z guidance. Even though the GFS did not quite cave in to the international guidance, there was a notable westward jog, which suggests that an out-to-sea and/or shut out condition (bust scenario) is looking less likely. A note about the NAM is that even though it is great for deep East Coast cyclogenesis events, we have to take its output with a huge grain of salt until we are within 36 hours, and especially 24 hours. For example, the Wed 18z run was rather extreme in that it swung from a hit for Eastern MA/RI at 12z to almost a complete miss for most of our CWA at 18z. That was a red flag as in the forecasting world, we want to see model continuity. That also indicates that the NAM was still struggling to sample the jet energy, which was up in the Yukon Territories at that time and removed from upper air sampling sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Bring it home Mike! mike trout is a huge weather weenie - it's hilarious 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Bring it home Mike! Frickin. HILARIOUS! Needed that laugh for the upcoming miss...unless we get more people to pull the rope, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ji said: 48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Read more junior. 2 did Okay. Mike masco and Veronica Johnson arnt even real Mets If they promised you snow, would it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 SREF mean has taken a big jump up for apg mean is up to near 4.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: SREF mean has taken a big jump up And it begins lol 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: SREF mean has taken a big jump up In coastal areas, yes. The immediate metros? Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, ovechkin said: In coastal areas, yes. The immediate metros? Not much. Apg went up many over the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wife and I probably heading to place in north OC tomorrow afternoon. Should be a fun time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 DC is the only area the SREF declined. better for NE of DC towards Baltimore and really better into NE MD and Wilmington 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: DC is the only area the SREF declined. better for NE of DC towards Baltimore and really better into NE MD and Wilmington Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: DC is the only area the SREF declined. better for NE of DC towards Baltimore and really better into NE MD and Wilmington but we know this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 127 pages and I’m looking at maybe MAYBE 3”. Family and friends tell me I’m an effing lunatic for spending countless hours reading and chatting with weather nerds about how much snow we might (or might not) have. Couldn’t agree more with them and damn it’s addicting! I love you all. Even Ctrl-Alt-Delete Tim. eta: 128 pages! I’m slow. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Scraff said: 127 pages and I’m looking at maybe MAYBE 3”. Family and friends tell me I’m an effing lunatic for spending countless hours reading and chatting with weather nerds about how much snow we might (or might not) have. Couldn’t agree more with them and damn it’s addicting! I love you all. Even Ctrl-Alt-Delete Tim. I love him too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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