January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat

[mappy]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yeah, well, my bar is really low. It could possibly get pulled in a bit.

 Honestly 2-3 inches would be a major success to me at this point.

You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z HRRR is a train wreck. 

As a model, I agree

[KAOS]

This.

Just now, mappy said:

You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo

Heck, this is a rare instance where I am even in a better spot than many of the people on this board. I'm basically on the bay in Pasadena.

 

[Ji]

lol the ROI on this hobby

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol the ROI on this hobby

What roi? lol

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, KAOS said:

This.

Heck, this is a rare instance where I am even in a better spot than many of the people on this board. I'm basically on the bay in Pasadena.

 

Agreed. I've been telling my mom she's in a better spot than me for this one. 

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol the ROI on this hobby

At least you can look forward to losing some more ROI and sleep between now and next Sat with the GFS showing a juicy storm next weekend 

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol the ROI on this hobby

Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend. 

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

At least you can look forward to losing some more ROI and sleep between now and next Sat with the GFS showing a juicy storm next weekend 

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol the ROI on this hobby

There are more pages in this thread than will be snowflakes west of the Blue Ridge.  Maybe even IAD.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

There are more pages in this thread than will be snowflakes west of the Blue Ridge.  Maybe even IAD.

That's what I expect in D.C.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend. 

True. But, and I think you’ll agree, modeled solutions and reality will diverge the further out in time you go. Reality will either be better or worse than what is modeled at say day 5. Rarely will it be the same. So why does it seem that reality is seldom better than what was modeled? You’d think it would go both ways but seemingly does not.

[RevWarReenactor]

19 minutes ago, mappy said:

You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo

Are you sure? I live in Northern Delaware. Who gets more precip, me? Baltimore? DC?

 

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Are you sure? I live in Northern Delaware. Who gets more precip, me? Baltimore? DC?

 

 

I wasn't referencing the GFS in my post, but your actual forecast from Philly/MtHolly

Winter Storm Watch, and 3+ on their snowfall maps. 

[Steve25]

GFS continues to tell folks in western Connecticut and NY that you'll get nothing and like it! Will be interesting to see if it pans out 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS continues to tell folks in western Connecticut and NY that you'll get nothing and like it! Will be interesting to see if it pans out 

If the GFS truly verifies and those spots miss out, it’ll be hard to look at other models for the rest of the year for things other than short-term banding and p-type.

[Ravens94]

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not by much. Another adjustment or two like this....

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

Yeah so far there has been no consistent trend with this storm. Just been going back and forth and correcting to the mean of the GFS and Euro.

[MDsnowPRO]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

Wish more people would read and retain this. So important to grasp these facts and change mindsets so we can be more objective moving forward. 

[WEATHER53]

Finally satellite radar and water vapor into play 

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

UKIE got worse. Look at the precip totals map. Much worse in fact

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

Plenty of us have been mentioning the idea of convergence on a likely ultimate solution, though I suppose you could argue that the run-to-run changes (both within and outside of each suite) have been fairly consistent over the last few days, which fits your take that there have been no real trends - just waffling back and forth that sets the goalposts.

[IUsedToHateCold]

The variance in model runs tells me this is a roll of the dice for us west of the bay. Whatever we get, we get. 

[MDsnowPRO]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The variance in model runs tells me this is a roll of the dice for us west of the bay. Whatever we get, we get. 

Yea if the dice only had zeros, ones, twos and threes on them. 

[Swiscaster]

[dtk]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

It's a shame that we cannot get consistent simulations for an under-observed, highly chaotic, strongly nonlinear system with finite computing. I need a new career.

[mattie g]

12 minutes ago, dtk said:

It's a shame that we cannot get consistent simulations for an under-observed, highly chaotic, strongly nonlinear system with finite computing. I need a new career.

We just need the vorts on shore so we can get better sampling.

[MN Transplant]

Honestly, the modeling at a high level has been extremely consistent.  This whole time we’ve been trying to weenie-cast a storm to the 95 corridor, while the models have developed it too late and offshore.  But, in a shocking twist, the storm is going to develop late and offshore.

[Maneee]

I actually laughed out loud!