rjvanals Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Yeah, good point. But at least in MBY inside the beltway, the ground has actually been frozen this year. That did not happen this year. Fingers crossed for an inch or two on the grass at least tomorrow afternoon/evening. If you want decent accumulation during the day w temps at/just below freezing a good rule of thumb is having visibility under a mile. Light Snow with .75 mile visibility and 32f will accumulate while light snow with 2 mile visibility and 30f will struggle to accumulate ~10-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: love that movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM and ICON about to ruin all of our hopes and dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM and ICON about to ruin all of our hopes and dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM and ICON about to ruin all of our hopes and dreams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 we're in the "let's pull a jan '00" portion of the program (well at least i am). 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, ldub23 said: Looks pretty good to me. It’s as good as we could have hoped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Once again, go Canada go! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 16 hours ago, clskinsfan said: A diesel blowing a gasket and then blowing up. I had know idea an engine could be so violent. Are people aware of this danger lurking under their hood, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Obviously we're getting too close for major changes, but small shifts can bring some of us into a little more moisture from the coastal. 12z ICON is a little sharper than 06z. 12z RGEM is very similar to the decent 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Do you have the base link for that site so I can loop the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll take the 2 to 4 on the 12z RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Do you have the base link for that site so I can loop the forecast? https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Obviously we're getting too close for major changes, but small shifts can bring some of us into a little more moisture from the coastal. 12z ICON is a little sharper than 06z. 12z RGEM is very similar to the decent 00z run. I think every inch helps with relation to Fridays stuff even if we miss the main coastal (very likely). I'll take positive tics the right way if it helps get friday to something like 2-4" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: I think every inch helps with relation to Fridays stuff even if we miss the main coastal (very likely). I'll take positive tics the right way if it helps get friday to something like 2-4" For sure. I don't think anyone west of the bay should hang their hats on getting significant precip from the coastal. Anything to help wring out as much moisture as possible on Friday evening is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 50 or so miles further west and the 12K NAM and would have dumped 8+ along 95 instead of 3. Likely 6+ on the Canadian as well. To say we know for sure what’s coming just isn’t accurate. Yeah, Baltimore and dc aren’t seeing a foot, but when VERY minor changes are the difference between 2-3” and 8-9”, that’s uncertainty. Sure, it’s much more likely than not we get either fringed or whiff, but it’s not a certainty at this point with so much volatility happening run to run; with the heavy stuff sliding JUST east of the bay. Especially not with 36 hours left before game time. Bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, down 3… will we win? Doubtful... but it sure as sh*t still happens from time to time when the stars align just right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: 50 or so miles further west and the 12K NAM would have dumped 8+ along 95 instead of 3” To say we know for sure what’s coming just isn’t accurate. Yeah, Baltimore and dc aren’t seeing a foot, but when VERY minor changes are the difference between 2-3” and 8-9”, that’s uncertainty. Sure, it’s much more likely than not we get either fringed or whiff, but it’s not a certainty at this point with so much volatility happening run to run; with the heavy stuff sliding JUST east of the bay. Especially not with 36 hours left before game time. I'd like to think we can make up that 50 miles, but I think that's a lot to ask at this point given the convergence on a solution that we're seeing now. I agree, though, that if we could get things to go neutral/negative/closed off just a bit west/earlier then we could see much better snows form the coastal west of the bay. I'd love to be wrong, but it seems a really tall order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 At 18 hours the Gfs is better (by about 10 miles) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The GFS looks better early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs faster to eject the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 some improvements on the GFS through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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