Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Suppose i suspected the surface to look better with an earlier negative tilt but maybe the broadness lets the low escape just enough east first. Maybe. Or like sometimes we see a delay with the surface reflection until next suite. Who knows. You're probably right tho about the trof being slightly broader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Seems to be the story of this storm. Going negative and closing off about 6 hours too late. At least it's got some nice little snowfall on the front end for generally DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3K not so good. The Nams giveth and the Nams taketh away. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not by much. Another adjustment or two like this.... It looks pretty similar to the prior couple of runs to me as to where the low ends up off the coast. We need the trough sharper. And again, it's the NAM. We need almost a due north movement from where it forms off of Florida. If that happened from where it formed we would be in business. The early stuff looks better, but aren't temperatures supposed to be pretty warm on Friday? Not sure how much of that would accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: It looks pretty similar to the prior couple of runs to me as to where the low ends up off the coast. We need the trough sharper. And again, it's the NAM. We need almost a due north movement from where it forms off of Florida. If that happened from where it formed we would be in business. The early stuff looks better, but aren't temperatures supposed to be pretty warm on Friday? Not sure how much of that would accumulate. Mid 30s is not pretty warm lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 At 18z yesterday the NAM jumped the low center East towards some of the convection. It corrected itself at 0z and 6z. 12z seems to try and do that again after 42hrs and jumps the low ENE. Would think the surface low would be more inclined to hug the baro zone tbh. Not saying "tucked" but the 150 mile jumps to convective flareups seem sus to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Mid 30s is not pretty warm lol For snow to accumulate, yes it is, unless it is thumping. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Mid 30s is not pretty warm lol Looks about 32 in dc when snow starts at 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 HM was mentioning again this morning the possibility for the moisture convergence to generate an area of precipitation tomorrow earlier than expected and lo and behold it shows up on the Nams. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: For snow to accumulate, yes it is, unless it is thumping. How does the sun angle look since this is daytime stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 ^^ So the 18" that the NAM showed over OBX at 00z last night isn't happening? Time to cancel my hotel room 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 The NAMs would save Friday happy hour. Pleaseberightpleaseberightforgodssakepleaseberightforonce 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: At 18z yesterday the NAM jumped the low center East towards some of the convection. It corrected itself at 0z and 6z. 12z seems to try and do that again after 42hrs and jumps the low ENE. Would think the surface low would be more inclined to hug the baro zone tbh. Not saying "tucked" but the 150 mile jumps to convective flareups seem sus to me. I believe thats why the sharpness matters of the trough. Energy doesn't consolidate and some escapes east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Looks about 32 in dc when snow starts at 18z. The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: I believe thats why the sharpness matters of the trough. Energy doesn't consolidate and some escapes east. Yeah, the coastal aspect of the NAM is actually worse than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure. Never mind the fact that it's been below freezing the past few days... like way below freezing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The NAMs would save Friday happy hour. Pleaseberightpleaseberightforgodssakepleaseberightforonce Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure. RonBurgundyIDontBelieveYou.gif 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure. Snow is snow with a beer in the hand on Friday night (good country song starting point there). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12K NAM doesn’t skunk us in the NW/Burg areas. We approve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12Z WB 3K NAM and 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Never mind the fact that it's been below freezing the past few days... like way below freezing We shall see. Just like in sports, the fun part is the game is played and we get to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The NAMS are terrible. I’ll never back off that. The 3k is usually worse here also. Could one or the other nail this? Sure. Would I bet a nickel on it. No way in hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure. Yeah, good point. But at least in MBY inside the beltway, the ground has actually been frozen this year. That did not last year. Fingers crossed for an inch or two on the grass at least tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3K NAM accumulation map is brutal, but probably realistic. Lets be honest folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12Z HRRR is a train wreck. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Saturday 12z hrrrr should have a good handle on the storm 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: 12Z HRRR is a train wreck. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: We shall see. Just like in sports, the fun part is the game is played and we get to see what happens. It would be great if this played out like the Bills/Chiefs game.....Bring the goods late. :-) I know that won't happen, but it's always good to wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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