Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Even better is they got H5 data too. Still not as robust as PW though. I just wish PW had the previous model run arrows. That is the best thing about TT. Tt has an incredible interface 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Even better is they got H5 data too. Still not as robust as PW though. I just wish PW had the previous model run arrows. That is the best thing about TT. Oh wow...dang. didn't realize that. Goodbye pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, Interstate said: Even better is they got H5 data too. Still not as robust as PW though. I just wish PW had the previous model run arrows. That is the best thing about TT. Tt has an incredible interface Yes. It is just slow and lacks data that PW has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ava's early thoughts -- she was definitely pushing the uncertainty factor just now on-air, how these numbers could go up or down as we get closer and have a better idea of where the low will track. said this has been a tough storm to forecast because of all the moving pieces 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Ava's early thoughts -- she was definitely pushing the uncertainty factor just now on-air, how these numbers could go up or down as we get closer and have a better idea of where the low will track. said this has been a tough storm to forecast because of all the moving pieces This is a solid forecast right now given all the variables at play. You can always adjust up if need be at these lengths. The 6+ down there on the Lower ES is pretty set in stone right now. Even the eastern most members in the data are at or above warning criteria down yonder. Hopefully we can get the western edge to work out! I'd love to see at least 2" of fluff in northern MoCo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a solid forecast right now given all the variables at play. You can always adjust up if need be at these lengths. The 6+ down there on the Lower ES is pretty set in stone right now. Even the eastern most members in the data are at or above warning criteria down yonder. Hopefully we can get the western edge to work out! I'd love to see at least 2" of fluff in northern MoCo I agree! I appreciate how much she's pushing the uncertainty of it all, the honesty about how its a tough one is nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: I agree! I appreciate how much she's pushing the uncertainty of it all, the honesty about how its a tough one is nice. She's a great meteorologist and is very careful with these kinds of setups. Has been in the past, which is very smart for around here. She did pretty well with the past few storms, so I'm sure she'll have a pretty good call by tomorrow AM. That's probably when everyone will have to put up or shut up down here haha Look forward to watching her on the news, live! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yup, Ava is absolutely terrific at this and we are lucky to have her. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: She's a great meteorologist and is very careful with these kinds of setups. Has been in the past, which is very smart for around here. She did pretty well with the past few storms, so I'm sure she'll have a pretty good call by tomorrow AM. That's probably when everyone will have to put up or shut up down here haha Look forward to watching her on the news, live! Will you be in MD tomorrow? She sometimes doesn't work Friday mornings, depending on how her and Taylor have their schedules set up. Just now, North Balti Zen said: Yup, Ava is absolutely terrific at this and we are lucky to have her. We are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Will you be in MD tomorrow? She sometimes doesn't work Friday mornings, depending on how her and Taylor have their schedules set up. We are! I will be in MD by 230 PM today! My flight leaves out of MAF at 825 AM CST and then Dallas at 10 AM CST or so. It'll be good to be back in the homeland 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I will be in MD by 230 PM today! My flight leaves out of MAF at 825 AM CST and then Dallas at 10 AM CST or so. It'll be good to be back in the homeland Woo!! Safe travels east, friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is crazy complex, evidently. Never seen models change so much based on nearly imperceptible changes at h5. Ill stick to what I said earlier. It may be tonight before we know. Heck it might be tomorrow morning. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Current forecast is for 4-8" here, 7-13" in S DE. Seems about right excluding the GFS, but decent bust potential with all the intricacies involved. Pulling for you to see a good event. Such a complicated setup but hopefully the goalposts narrow today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a solid forecast right now given all the variables at play. You can always adjust up if need be at these lengths. The 6+ down there on the Lower ES is pretty set in stone right now. Even the eastern most members in the data are at or above warning criteria down yonder. Hopefully we can get the western edge to work out! I'd love to see at least 2" of fluff in northern MoCo Agree 100%. Good forecast given the spread on models and I like the honesty in the uncertainty of the forecast. We may have a shot at a few game-time surprises if the storm ends up being just a bit more amped / west of what’s being modeled currently. As you said earlier, very small shifts in any of the numerous variables at play could end up shaking things up (for the better or worse) It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we won’t know it’s coming until it occurs in real time (earlier phase, sharper trough, better banding to the NW, etc) . Wouldn’t be the first time a storm ended up tracking further west than models showed just before game time (the storm 1-2 weeks ago ended up further inland than we expected) We certainly won’t see the storm magically shift 150 west, but even 50-75 miles could make a sizable difference for places like DC and BAL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: When did tropicaltidbits.com get ecwmf precip. That's huge Must have been this week, it wasn't there for the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jlh said: Must have been this week, it wasn't there for the last storm. I think that’s as of a few hours ago or so, because there’s now EC-fast listed, which wasn’t there yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wow, what an overnight change. I truly have no idea what is going to happen here lol. Don’t think any modeling system is going to cover itself in glory for this storm, but it is a unusually sensitive set up as many of us have been saying for a week. A few observations from the guidance in the vein of my comments yesterday morning: 1. The “PRE” event is still on the table but it also appears quite sensitive to where the storm tracks. Look at the differences in how juicy that swath of precipitation is on the GGEM/RGEM vs the GFS and Euro. In hindsight, that makes some sense. Closer low to the coast, the better moisture transport toward us that that boundary can wring out. I still think a banding structure within that could surprise someone relative to whatever expectations we have 36 hours from now. 2. Unfortunately for us in the metro corridor, I haven’t seen any sign that ULL precipitation swath is moving north toward us on the guidance. If there’s a region that has an overlap between the ULL and the arctic front, it’s more likely to be within a ROA-CHO-EZF-RIC polygon. And if there is an overlap there, that probably means DC-Baltimore is largely skunked. 3. Obviously the metro corridor still has some prayer of being on the edge of precip from the coastal. I still have little hope for that, but may have to put our eggs in that basket? With how rapidly this forecast has flip flopped in the last 72 hours, more changes certainly to come! 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is crazy complex, evidently. Never seen models change so much based on nearly imperceptible changes at h5. Ill stick to what I said earlier. It may be tonight before we know. Heck it might be tomorrow morning. Lol Wouldn’t be the first time we saw big changes inside 48 hours this winter. January 3rd looked fairly lost until 48hr out. The storm after that looked good for us pretty much all week long, went way west in the final 48hr and still ended up tracking west of what was progged hours before the storm hit. This storm could also end up even worse than what’s being modeled (energy’s left behind, late / weak phase, etc) Def. not expecting some magical massive shift that gives us all a foot, but I also wont completely rule out a 3-6” storm along 95 either given the clear lack of consensus among models in such a complex setup. Long shot or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wow TT is going to have the 06z and 18z euro too, all the euro stuff is just going to come in one hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Wow TT is going to have the 06z and 18z euro too, all the euro stuff is just going to come in one hour later. Even has Euro soundings too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Even has Euro soundings too! That's really awesome, super happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like 6z Euro QPF is consistent with 00z along 95 but it pulled back totals a bit east of the bay. 6z 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is crazy complex, evidently. Never seen models change so much based on nearly imperceptible changes at h5. Ill stick to what I said earlier. It may be tonight before we know. Heck it might be tomorrow morning. LolWe've known for days. How did the rectal checkup go? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas. psu fringe alert for my yard lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I truly have no idea what is going to happen here lol. This says it all. When someone who knows what you do says this, you just validate my earlier comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas. psu fringe alert for my yard lol. Just go on a bit of a tantrum / panic about being fringed, and you’ll wind up with a foot. It’s worked for PSU in the past. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Wow TT is going to have the 06z and 18z euro too, all the euro stuff is just going to come in one hour later. Just a shame they waited until the Euro went from king to useless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looks like 6z Euro QPF is consistent with 00z along 95 but it pulled back totals a bit east of the bay. 6z 00z Why do the gods of precip hate Winchester so much? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 37 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pulling for you to see a good event. Such a complicated setup but hopefully the goalposts narrow today. Thanks. I am keeping my expectations on the lower end, something like 3-5". Hard to just completely discount one of the top 2 globals, and the Euro has been suggesting the best lift may not make it this far NW the last couple runs. With the track of the low so far offshore, and cold/dry Arctic air feeding in, some dry air is going to work in on the NW side and I think that will keep the snow here more in the light to moderate category with the heavy stuff further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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