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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

To all members,

I feel like I need to apologize to you all for what happened earlier.  I'm sorry.  I lost my temper.  I'm not going to blame a "bad day" or some external reason.  There is no reason or excuse. I just lost it and I'm sorry y'all had to see it.  I can't say it was behavior unbecoming of an admin because let's face it, I suck as an admin and I don't even look at myself as one.  I'm only an admin because I co-founded this board.  Yeah, I joke about banning people, but most of you all know it's just that...jokes.  Thank God @IronTy wife isn't the sole owner of this board, because after this morning,  she'd be driving down 95 to pay me a visit.    With that said, I'm opting out of pbp.  Not because of what happened today (well mostly not), it's because I'm just sick of this see-sawing GD storm.   

Again, apologies to the board.

Definitely NO apology needed. Nothing anyone does on this board can possibly be worse than that crap I pulled in 2008 on the old board. I should have been banned forever and ever and ever.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs was actually a little better upstairs. Surface wasn’t but I think what happens at h5 ultimately will determine this.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS reels folks back in at 0z and/or 6z. This set up is so touchy, the outcome is hardly etched in stone at this point.

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3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Man I just looked at the GFS.  What a massacre. Back when I lived in Michigan we got more snow than that when my mom sneezed.  This evolution has been a legit travesty.  

Time to get your wife to fire the CEO of the GFS

That said, the actual H5 pattern on the GFS looked a smidge better

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS reels folks back in at 0z and/or 6z. This set up is so touchy, the outcome is hardly etched in stone at this point.

I agree. Extremely touchy. And we are still a reasonably long way from this, whatever it is. What occurs over the next 30 hours is gonna be huge.

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Mount Holly is a tad bullish here- certainly more than I am.

Friday Night
Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I’m actually enthused.  Aside from the immediate sand on the coast we do ok in the GFS.  It snows at least from the NS.  Better than the alternative.  

Seriously. Anyone who is still focused on the coastal is not focusing on what we've got anymore. Thread might as well be renamed. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Seriously. Anyone who is still focused on the coastal is not focusing on what we've got anymore. Thread might as well be renamed. 

I know I speak for the minority, but I don't mind at all what the GFS and most other models are showing around EZF, 2-3" sounds ok with me. 

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4 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

I know I speak for the minority, but I don't mind at all what the GFS and most other models are showing around EZF, 2-3" sounds ok with me. 

As a member of the Central VA minority, I'm with ya lol. I hope this can work out for everyone, but if the trend to move that snow slightly more south holds, well, it's an IMBY sport.

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

The rain?  LWX AFD mentioned that could happen at the start

The lack of moisture and the strength of the low with the location of the pressure center. However I noticed on the same run, a few charts down in time it repositions the pressure center with a reading more what I am used to seeing out there with these, and the moisture is there. 

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45 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

At the end of the day, the weather can let us down, just like politics or life in general, but then we have this:

so to the GFS, the Euro, the GEM, NAM and the rest I say Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, Schubert and Mendelsohn ... deal with it. Fix up your craft and reach the stars. 

Roger Smith - a very humble thank you. This has taken me to the 4th dimension. Nothing else matters.

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48 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

At the end of the day, the weather can let us down, just like politics or life in general, but then we have this:

so to the GFS, the Euro, the GEM, NAM and the rest I say Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, Schubert and Mendelsohn ... deal with it. Fix up your craft and reach the stars. 

Thanks for that!  Beats the hell out of the "Baby Shark" ear-worm!! :lol:  Unless Beethoven composed that?  Hmmmm.... (ducks, before @Maestrobjwa throws a brick at me for blaspheming Ludwig van in such a manner!!)

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