IUsedToHateCold Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: You got like 7” on the 6z Euro. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro would promote some pretty nice dendritic growth for areas along and east of I-95. 850-600mb temp profile is between -10 to -17C for the coastal portion of the storm with ascent focused on the western flank of the 5H low as it passes overhead, then strengthens once over the mouth of the bay. It would be a nice snow storm for many, with even the areas NW of 95 seeing some nice light to occasionally moderate snow during the overnight period into Saturday. I'd take that all day long 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6z euro did appear to reduce the accumulating snow Friday evening esp for N/W of the metro areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If that map verified Calvert County would have triple the snowfall to date compared to places like Frederick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Its not a disaster for us nw folks. I knew what a storm like this means for us. We need to maximize the front end. Then watch the precip go poof as the coastal bombs. It is just how it is for us. Any snow is good snow. And think of it like this. If you weren't a weather weenie you would have no idea OC is getting a foot while you get 2 inches. You would just he happy with the 2 inches you got. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Its not a disaster for us nw folks. I knew what a storm like this means for us. We need to maximize the front end. Then watch the precip go poof as the coastal bombs. It is just how it is for us. Any snow is good snow. And think of it like this. If you weren't a weather weenie you would have no idea OC is getting a foot while you get 2 inches. You would just he happy with the 2 inches you got. THIS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: THIS 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its not a disaster for us nw folks. I knew what a storm like this means for us. We need to maximize the front end. Then watch the precip go poof as the coastal bombs. It is just how it is for us. Any snow is good snow. And think of it like this. If you weren't a weather weenie you would have no idea OC is getting a foot while you get 2 inches. You would just he happy with the 2 inches you got. ...says the wife......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Reminder if you say that something fails to trend positively everytime that means you are locked in to the fact that there has never ever been a storm that trended positively in the history of storms thus looking like a complete fool who acts like they are a 10 yr old spoiled brat. Time to move bro you don't like it here anymore go be happy somewhere. Do trends really exist with models? If I get heads 5 times in a row when flipping an honest coin it definitely look/feel like a trend, but it’s a random streak. When I think I’m seeing a storm trend what am I really seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Back to 06z EPS should be interesting to see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Very much my current thinking, so thank you for putting this up. Pete is my buddy from college, and we've chatted briefly last few days. His thinking and mine jive pretty well right now, as does yours now that it is written out. It's a setup where the boom/bust potential is high for basically everywhere, but the boom west of the Bay was likely something like the 18z NAM and 12z Euro. The phasing is too late for a coastal hugger, but a great timed phased can still put the western edge of the qpf square over our areas. Axis of deformation is still an eastern shore deal as the 7H low tracks off to the SE of the 95 corridor. I still think the end result is warnings east side of the bay and advisories to the west. I hope the 06z NAM is wrong with the 5H vort passage Friday as that would be pretty awful. That little feature is basically I'm asking for at this juncture. Nice big fatties falling to set the mood while my wife and I are on our first full day of vacay with family. Would be pretty awesome. We certainly have some boom/bust potential (don’t we always?), but I think the goalposts are fairly narrow. Bust = dusting, Boom (west of Bay) = 6-8”. Now look at NYC!! 2’+ on the euro or dusting -2” on the GFS. Yikes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I do want to say the GFS was a far eastern outlier the last storm and didn't move west till a day prior. For the longest time it gave the shore no snow. When the euro did. Hopefully we can get some consensus today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: We certainly have some boom/bust potential (don’t we always?), but I think the goalposts are fairly narrow. Bust = dusting, Boom (west of Bay) = 6-8”. Now look at NYC!! 2’+ on the euro or dusting -2” on the GFS. Yikes. If I was working at Upton, I'd be pulling my hair out right now. I think eastern LI is game for a crushing multiple ways, but the metro corridor is a nightmare. No envy over here for them. Agreed with the boom/bust for here. East of the Bay is probably 8-12" with local 15" for CAPE's hood and the coast is legit ridiculous all out blizzard. I'm not kidding when I say a place like Rehoboth could see their all time greatest snowfall with this storm. They BARELY missed with the 2018 bomb in early January. My parents had 15-20" with 4' drifts in Millville just off the coast and they didn't even get the deformation band as it sat 2 miles off the coast. Some parts of coastal southern Jersey hit like 27" cuz they got hit by it for 3 hrs. This storm could easily crush the DE beach towns. I wish I could make a road trip lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us? Or is it too late for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us? Or is it too late for that? seems like that would be a yes. I mean that snowfall gradient is straight north south...seems like it would move with the storm either being further west or bombing more...or both. will wait for the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us? Or is it too late for that? Yes. 6z GFS continued trending accumuating snow further south with the ULL passage. However, it came west with the heavier qpf amounts from the coastal passage. Still not enough for those of us west of the bay but something to watch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its not a disaster for us nw folks. I knew what a storm like this means for us. We need to maximize the front end. Then watch the precip go poof as the coastal bombs. It is just how it is for us. Any snow is good snow. And think of it like this. If you weren't a weather weenie you would have no idea OC is getting a foot while you get 2 inches. You would just he happy with the 2 inches you got. Well technically you would know they got a foot because you'd hear it on the news...lol I remember before I was tracking I'd hear about an area just north and or east/south of here I'd be frustrated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: seems like that would be a yes. I mean that snowfall gradient is straight north south...seems like it would move with the storm either being further west or bombing more...or both. will wait for the others Brother, I'd be happy if PWC would scratch out a 4 inch snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If I was working at Upton, I'd be pulling my hair out right now. I think eastern LI is game for a crushing multiple ways, but the metro corridor is a nightmare. No envy over here for them. Agreed with the boom/bust for here. East of the Bay is probably 8-12" with local 15" for CAPE's hood and the coast is legit ridiculous all out blizzard. I'm not kidding when I say a place like Rehoboth could see their all time greatest snowfall with this storm. They BARELY missed with the 2018 bomb in early January. My parents had 15-20" with 4' drifts in Millville just off the coast and they didn't even get the deformation band as it sat 2 miles off the coast. Some parts of coastal southern Jersey hit like 27" cuz they got hit by it for 3 hrs. This storm could easily crush the DE beach towns. I wish I could make a road trip lol It's something we're used to here with these ocean storms. Sometimes we get a rabbit out of the hat like 1/4/18 and Boxing Day 2010 and sometimes we have a Juno 2015 or mid-March 2018 that just misses NYC or grazes. These often do well here but it's not a 'wheelhouse storm' the way it is for Boston. To my east near the twin forks look to get crushed for sure. The GFS did get better at 6z and at least has me now 30 miles east of Central Park at a warning event, GGEM was solid and Euro if anything got better and demolishes 90% of the metro area. If the Euro fails this bad after the last 4-5 straight runs have over 12" into NYC it should just be a laughingstock. But it's been known to overdo/overamp this type of storm. You can probably translate the NYC 'tough call' down to the far eastern parts of this subforum like DE/eastern MD but hopefully the more amped models do have a clue here. And maybe there'll be a good surprise for DC too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Brother, I'd be happy if PWC would scratch out a 4 inch snowfall. seems reasonable. eastern PWC for sure....for us...maybe. who knows...we were supposed to get what 3 inches last friday and got 3 minutes of flakes...these things have way of just doing what they will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, yoda said: If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us? Or is it too late for that? I feel like it’s too late to get the really heavy stuff our way barring a major late adjustment WNW, but I doubt it’s too late to get in on more light-moderate powder from the coastal to get a few more inches before it scoots away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Brother, I'd be happy if PWC would scratch out a 4 inch snowfall. With current setup, if you live around Quantico, Dumfries, Triangle, Dale City, Lake Ridge Woodbridge, you can probably scratch out 4 inches. West of there is a crap shoot at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6z EPS is pretty much a hold from it's 0z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4" line on 06z EPS pretty much runs i95 corridor from BWI to EZF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, yoda said: 4" line on 06z EPS pretty much runs i95 corridor from BWI to EZF What about south towards Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, ChesterfieldVa80 said: What about south towards Richmond? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, yoda said: If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us? Or is it too late for that? Sure, it is possible, but the goalposts are narrowing and even with the usual overamped NAM and Euro, we are on the very southwest edge of the decent snows. Time is running out for a boom scenario. But the runs today should give us the clarity I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Sure, it is possible, but the goalposts are narrowing and even with the usual overamped NAM and Euro, we are on the very southwest edge of the decent snows. Time is running out for a boom scenario. But the runs today should give us the clarity I would think. Goal posts are narrow and the kicker is Scott Norwood 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: With current setup, if you live around Quantico, Dumfries, Triangle, Dale City, Lake Ridge Woodbridge, you can probably scratch out 4 inches. West of there is a crap shoot at best. Agreed. Looks like I'm going to need the northern stream to over perform to reach that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Mount Holly headlines are informative, and keeping it pretty general for now. Expected given the uncertainty. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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