January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat

[DDweatherman]

You definitely want the euro doing what it just did at 18z. A noise run is just what we needed. A hold from our best solution is great headed into the 0z suite. 

[DDweatherman]

This was also a great trend for our latitude, slower overall helped with this 

[nj2va]

Also Yellow’d for Day 5

[DDweatherman]

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok, there’s a group of you, you know who you are, that can suck it 
 

PSA — I’m only having fun with you

lol no you’re not 

[Deer Whisperer]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

A bit more falls Leesburg east after this (more as you head towards the ES)

Appreciate it. Seems the kuchera map is slightly >10:1 

[vastateofmind]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gonna be hard not to drive an hour to Rehoboth at this point.

DFH camp-out....   

[CAPE]

Just now, vastateofmind said:

DFH camp-out....   

Come on down. I stay basically across the street. Fun times but more so in a snowstorm.

[WinterWxLuvr]

If that piece in the four corners comes out sooner and times up with the ns sooner, that will cause the heights in front to raise faster because it will cause the deepening to happen sooner. Still riding the alignment aspect of this. I know when I watch the 0z runs come in, I’ll only be looking at that piece and hoping it’s further east. If by some miracle we could get it directly under that ns piece, which I actually don’t think will happen, then we are talking about a completely different outcome IMO.

[DDweatherman]

@WinterWxLuvrEarlier, when you mentioned this storm changing shape. One of the things i'm maybe starting to take notice wrt to the Euro and NAM even earlier was the evolution and what it could mean for areas further south. Some folks in the other forums speaking of the Euro at 18z closing off h5 earlier and further SW. This can cause that evolution where depending on track of low and tilt on the trough out latitude wins and further north doesn't do as well. 

[AlexD1990]

Gonna be hard not to drive an hour to Rehoboth at this point.

I got a couch....

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The storm personality has changed quite a bit the last 3 days. It's still northern stream dominant but digs really deep and ignites the low pretty far south off the coast. That's new and why everyone is excited. Before it was a typical northern stream shortwave that sets things off too far north for us. Common in Nina's. This storm is on the rare side as is 

Agreed. The presentation has changed in several ways. As shown on the euro, I think most of the snow we’re (metro corridor) getting is not from coastal per se but from that gorgeous ULL. Seems GFS has that through northern NC and into VA. Euro is more over the metro area. Encouraging developments, but still 72 hours to go so more changes to come.

[baltosquid]

Looking at how the tail has trended across different models, it's interesting how the euro has ended up being the one most bullish about snow given how ruinous the tail seemed to be a couple days ago - the last few runs on it have actually been trending to a longer tail, but it's so aggressive with that northern piece towards the end that it ends up still being a better result for us. The GFS meanwhile has been shortening that tail for a few runs now but has not become nearly as enthusiastic about phasing as the euro. CMC also trended to a shorter tail from 00z to 12z and was once again not as big of an improvement as the euro today. As for the mesos, the NAM has been shrinking it quite aggressively and the RGEM has been less committal, jumping back and forth between short and long. If we can blend some of the north american global and meso tail handling with the euro's NS progression, I'd imagine that would be quite good. On the other hand, if the euro is right about the tail but the rest are right about the NS, then we're not gonna be hearing jaws anytime soon.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Looking at how the tail has trended across different models, it's interesting how the euro has ended up being the one most bullish about snow given how ruinous the tail seemed to be a couple days ago - the last few runs on it have actually been trending to a longer tail, but it's so aggressive with that northern piece towards the end that it ends up still being a better result for us. The GFS meanwhile has been shortening that tail for a few runs now but has not become nearly as enthusiastic about phasing as the euro. CMC also trended to a shorter tail from 00z to 12z and was once again not as big of an improvement as the euro today. As for the mesos, the NAM has been shrinking it quite aggressively and the RGEM has been less committal, jumping back and forth between short and long. If we can blend some of the north american global and meso tail handling with the euro's NS progression, I'd imagine that would be quite good. On the other hand, if the euro is right about the tail but the rest are right about the NS, then we're not gonna be hearing jaws anytime soon.

Well said, the jaws meter is an important scale that we might need to create going forward. Anyone want to get over into photoshop? 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Come on down. I stay basically across the street. Fun times but more so in a snowstorm.

Can you get me the rare (here) 120 minute please.  Thanks.

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

@WinterWxLuvrEarlier, when you mentioned this storm changing shape. One of the things i'm maybe starting to take notice wrt to the Euro and NAM even earlier was the evolution and what it could mean for areas further south. Some folks in the other forums speaking of the Euro at 18z closing off h5 earlier and further SW. This can cause that evolution where depending on track of low and tilt on the trough out latitude wins and further north doesn't do as well. 

My thoughts are that originally the storm formed a long way out in the ocean and basically tracked almost north. This late formation was due to the trough taking forever to at least reach neutral. Now it seems to be evolving toward an earlier neutral and a quicker storm genesis. And I think we very much want that.

[stormtracker]

I'm not even going to try to fake it, I'm legit looking forward to the NAM.

Yes, I said what I said. 

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Well said, the jaws meter is an important scale that we might need to create going forward. Anyone want to get over into photoshop? 

Give me a minute, I've got the design in mind.

[WhiteoutMD]

13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

This was also a great trend for our latitude, slower overall helped with this 

Closing off man this is SO close to BOOM

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Looking at how the tail has trended across different models, it's interesting how the euro has ended up being the one most bullish about snow given how ruinous the tail seemed to be a couple days ago - the last few runs on it have actually been trending to a longer tail, but it's so aggressive with that northern piece towards the end that it ends up still being a better result for us. The GFS meanwhile has been shortening that tail for a few runs now but has not become nearly as enthusiastic about phasing as the euro. CMC also trended to a shorter tail from 00z to 12z and was once again not as big of an improvement as the euro today. As for the mesos, the NAM has been shrinking it quite aggressively and the RGEM has been less committal, jumping back and forth between short and long. If we can blend some of the north american global and meso tail handling with the euro's NS progression, I'd imagine that would be quite good. On the other hand, if the euro is right about the tail but the rest are right about the NS, then we're not gonna be hearing jaws anytime soon.

I think if we want the coastal, we need the ns to eat that southern feature like Pac-Man. Not grab it like a thread on a sweater and pull.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not even going to try to fake it, I'm legit looking forward to the NAM.

Yes, I said what I said. 

You’ll be lucky if it doesn’t look like a run from July.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think if we want the coastal, we need the ns to eat that southern feature like Pac-Man. Not grab it like a thread on a sweater and pull.

The reason it does the pull depends on the type of tail feature like he mentioned. We also as you've mentioned want the northern piece diving in to have as meridional (N/S) alignment as possible. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Closing off man this is SO close to BOOM

Imagine that happening if Nashville was the center.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’ll be lucky if it doesn’t look like a run from July.

Usually this is when we want it to look like last run but go out 6 more hours.... and then its over bermuda

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

The reason it does the pull depends on the type of tail feature like he mentioned. We also as you've mentioned want the northern piece diving in to have as meridional (N/S) alignment as possible. 

The “tail” is actually the remnants of the sw piece that’s basically getting shredded. Let it get gobbled and watch what happens. The NAM came very close to that.

[TSSN+]

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The reason it does the pull depends on the type of tail feature like he mentioned. We also as you've mentioned want the northern piece diving in to have as meridional (N/S) alignment as possible. 

If it not be too much trouble...could you or someone point out this ns feature that could help us? (I have trouble deciphering what I'm looking at on the H5)

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If it not be too much trouble...could you or someone point out this ns feature that could help us? (I have trouble deciphering what I'm looking at on the H5)

CntrlTim where are you

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Can you get me the rare (here) 120 minute please.  Thanks.

I can get you an aged one if you want. When they say "ages well" they aren't kidding. Had a 2013 vintage recently.

[psuhoffman]