IronTy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Lord Jesus himself needs to watch over this thread. Any models we can fill the gap with to replace baby arm talk? What is DT thinking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Waiting for “RSC” to come in with another “the low tracking further west won’t help” comment after these runs. Sure as sh** helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The Euro is about to come around and show a foot for us, so we only need to behave for another hour and 30 minutes. Or follow the other guidance off the coast… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: The Euro is about to come around and show a foot for us, so we only need to behave for another hour and 30 minutes. We can talk about why Wink is gone but Roman remains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: What is DT thinking? Whatever the euro is. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: What is DT thinking? please dont let the curse of DT kill this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: We can talk about why Wink is gone but Roman remains. Yes, that discussion needs to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Ukie still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: We can talk about why Wink is gone but Roman remains. Completely ridiculous. I just don't understand it. I almost lost my shit Friday night. It makes ZERO sense. Roman has to go. Harbaugh has lost his mind. I'm apoplectic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I mean i get it all of these models are close enough that it makes sense to keep on tracking but it sure feels like the top end has shown it's hand on many of these model runs even with the shifts. Of course i am probably wrong but that coastal isn't going to hit us beyond the eastern shore. I'll keep following though but it's much easier being out my way to just let it go. Hope i'm wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean i get it all of these models are close enough that it makes sense to keep on tracking but it sure feels like the top end has shown it's hand on many of these model runs even with the shifts. Of course i am probably wrong but that coastal isn't going to hit us beyond the eastern shore. I'll keep following though but it's much easier being out my way to just let it go. Hope i'm wrong A lot of us were probably ready to move on last night, but then the 0z Euro sucked us back in for another round of this insanity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Completely ridiculous. I just don't understand it. I almost lost my shit Friday night. It makes ZERO sense. Roman has to go. Harbaugh has lost his mind. I'm apoplectic. Yeah I was kinda yelling at my screen when I heard it...you've got to be kidding me, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: A lot of us were probably ready to move on last night, but then the 0z Euro sucked us back in for another round of this insanity. And if 12z comes in further west...ain't nobody in here gonna be able to escape, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: Completely ridiculous. I just don't understand it. I almost lost my shit Friday night. It makes ZERO sense. Roman has to go. Harbaugh has lost his mind. I'm apoplectic. Mutual decision, which means they weren't going to extend him and he wanted to move on knowing that. As for Roman, I guess they are content having a good running game with HS level passing schemes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I was kinda yelling at my screen when I heard it...you've got to be kidding me, smh You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean i get it all of these models are close enough that it makes sense to keep on tracking but it sure feels like the top end has shown it's hand on many of these model runs even with the shifts. Of course i am probably wrong but that coastal isn't going to hit us beyond the eastern shore. I'll keep following though but it's much easier being out my way to just let it go. Hope i'm wrong But can ya say that for sure after what the Euro just did last night? Everything seemed frozen (pun partially intended) last night...until that run. And now this morning both GFS and CMC trend west. Not sure we are done seeing shifts...how big remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs... Yep--it was the offense that lost 5 of those 6 games. Only game we got completely run over was the Bengals. But Wink had those street players playing about as well as you could expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yep--it was the offense that lost 5 of those 6 games. Only game we got completely run over was the Bengals. But Wink had those street players playing about as well as you could expect 7th string corners against Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd aren't gonna cut it in the NFL.. not his fault. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But can ya say that for sure after what the Euro just did last night? Everything seemed frozen (pun partially intended) last night...until that run. And now this morning both GFS and CMC trend west. Not sure we are done seeing shifts...how big remains to be seen Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 100 miles souther and wester and we are pummeled. 100 miles easter and norther and we are in big trouble. About 84 hours to go. I’m all in for a 2-4 inch storm from the upper level pass. But Ef it, I’m hunting big game now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs... I dont think any part of the Ravens team was "healthy" lol..but anyway, did I accidently stumble into the banter thread? Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I dont think any part of the Ravens team was "healthy" lol..but anyway, did I accidently stumble into the banter thread? Sheesh Waiting for the Euro Chris, not much else to do. Want to see if it folds like a lawn chair or keeps the momentum going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that. I agree. If I was on the Eastern shore I'd be feeling more confident. As far west as we are I'm just hoping we can maximize the front end on Friday from the upper level energy swinging through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Last few days have definitely been a roller coaster ride. We're out, back in, monster bomb, back out, back in halfway. Whew. I'm exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GEFS snow mean progression. Didn't realize 6z was as good as it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, DDweatherman said: I'm more in the Wwxluvr camp, it hasn't been that great of a winter out here to the NW... those who say we win a lot, suit yourselves but I want snow. I think its a bit of a myth. We 'won' last year, but lost biggly in 2017 and 2018 to the coast. For some reason, I cant remember what happened in 2019. I think everyone lost in 2020. We lose just as often as we win in the recent past. And getting tired of being fringed on all these coastals. I hope every low from now to the end of time runs right up the TN / OH Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that. Probably the most sensible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 50 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Had a feeling it was still too far east and more of a coastal hit than anything. I think some on here forget how close we want a low pressure off the coast for the general metro areas to get crushed. Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red. Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black. I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want. The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track. These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast. The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked. 16 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that. True. GFS has “trended west” the last few runs, but it’s still way east of where it was yesterday at this time. This was yesterday’s 12z run. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red. Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black. I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want. The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track. These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast. The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked. Has there been any model runs that have actually shown tracks similar to those in red so far? Does the overall pattern even support a track tucked that close to the coast? As far as what I've seen and heard over the past week or so the answers to both those questions are both a resounding no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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