snowfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Nice mean for the shore and New England, but gives you a sense of how many members are east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, jayyy said: 00z euro tonight will have heavy snow in the metro corridor. I can feel it Is that like a semi? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: Nice mean for the shore and New England, but gives you a sense of how many members are east of the op. True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Agreed, and yet we see it mentioned often in WFO forecast discussions. I think to an extent is is a thing - of course more data is better - and directly sampled data is the gold standard. But if it comes to getting the energy within range of like 1-2 RAOB sites - it's really not going to matter a ton. If you had a super dense RAOB network perhaps it would create a greater change. 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Was just going to say this. Why do Mets frequently mention this in forecast discussions then? Including a recent one. Unless they’re all mistaken on the models they read for a living. Same answer as above - I think it does matter a bit - but it's not going to result in some wholesale shift like you're indicating it might. Small adjustments, yes - but nothing like January 2000 - those kinds of busts are becoming ancient history. Models can bust - the the risk of something like that is lessening as models advance. If you look at the RAOB release locations - they are often pretty spread out - it's good to have the data - but it's not like a mesonet where you're getting a very dense clustering of data over small scales. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out. Yeah if we can coalesce around a euro solution today and tomorrow that puts us in a great spot if the lack of blocking helps us get a west trend in the home stretch. Not gonna get the eye popping stuff I would think but there’s room to improve if we don’t lose ground today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not one 6z control post? Can't have that. Just close your eyes and imagine it's 24 hours out 9 1 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out. Yeah, but we're on the far western edge of an outlier piece of guidance. Not saying it won't snow but I'm keeping expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Heisy said: Not one 6z control post? Can't have that. Just close your eyes and imagine it's 24 hours out 31 inches on the Delmarva and 2.4 for me? Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 30 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Yeah if we can coalesce around a euro solution today and tomorrow that puts us in a great spot if the lack of blocking helps us get a west trend in the home stretch. Not gonna get the eye popping stuff I would think but there’s room to improve if we don’t lose ground today. I mean...if...IF (big if) the things go more euro-ish, the eye-popping stuff ain't that far away, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 To put the final nail in the "the shortwave is on shore and being sampled!" argument - I think a lot of it is also that by the time a given piece of energy is "on shore" it's also getting closer in time...and in theory that should be narrowing goalposts and more accurate forecasts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z v 6z. Look familiar from a while back….I believe we did well with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Is that like a semi? That light you see is just an oncoming train!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think to an extent is is a thing - of course more data is better - and directly sampled data is the gold standard. But if it comes to getting the energy within range of like 1-2 RAOB sites - it's really not going to matter a ton. If you had a super dense RAOB network perhaps it would create a greater change. Same answer as above - I think it does matter a bit - but it's not going to result in some wholesale shift like you're indicating it might. Small adjustments, yes - but nothing like January 2000 - those kinds of busts are becoming ancient history. Models can bust - the the risk of something like that is lessening as models advance. If you look at the RAOB release locations - they are often pretty spread out - it's good to have the data - but it's not like a mesonet where you're getting a very dense clustering of data over small scales. January 3rd was pretty much a nothing burger until New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. Im not sure if better sampling caused the necessary changes we needed to see a sizable shift in the outcome leading in, but we don’t really need “wholesale” changes for this to be a respectable event for many is my point. A sizable shift in outcome (snow totals) doesn’t always equate to major changes at h5 / 500mb. Getting those 6-10” totals from the eastern shore to Baltimore wouldn't really require massive changes. A bit better ridging, a sharper trough, more digging, a slightly earlier phase, etc goes a long way when you’re talking 100-150 miles 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah, but we're on the far western edge of an outlier piece of guidance. Not saying it won't snow but I'm keeping expectations in check. No one’s expecting a KU or MECS here. I’m talking about a low end warning event for 95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: That light you see is just an oncoming train!!!!! Hope it’s a slow moving coal train and not a bullet train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 39 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Looking into the ensembles 0z to 6z there was a change in the ensemble camps. We all win with the camp 6z has for the most part. It's a touch slower and west. Very interested to see what 12z does Yeah I mentioned this earlier when it first came out. 6z was a good run, even if Ji didn't like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 31 minutes ago, jayyy said: 00z euro tonight will have heavy snow in the metro corridor. I can feel it Are there people who care about the metro corridor? Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not one 6z control post? Can't have that. Just close your eyes and imagine it's 24 hours out @cape would probably sell their left nut for this outcome lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If we can just get 4 to 8, I'd buy that so hard. And yes, buy is the verb I meant. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Are there people who care about the metro corridor? Lol Shut up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not one 6z control post? Can't have that. Just close your eyes and imagine it's 24 hours out The Control is garbage. As useful as the NAM @84hrs or the jmaSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Are there people who care about the metro corridor? Lol I’d argue that majority of people in here care 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 In an hour, I'll be on Amtrak during the 12z runs, heading to NYC for a day appointment. If the Amtrak wifi is per usual, I will have the internet speed of AOL 4.0 with a 56k modem. But I'll try my best to do some pbp. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Been said time and time again - the on-land data sampling thing is mostly a thing of the past. Remote sensing has some a LONG way - the vast majority of waves/energy etc are sampled quite well by satellites. That’s what’s said, but not sure I agree. I also think we tend to overlook changes that occur to data over time. What was projected at 12 hours will always differ at some level from what actually occurs. Then new data is taken and so on. For me, and just an opinion, it’s much easier to determine what the actually reality is in respect to whatever feature you’re sampling if that feature is over land and not 500 miles out in the pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, CentralVaNATS said: The Control is garbage. As useful as the NAM @84hrs or the jma Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Unless this showed 30” in your backyard - then you wouldn’t stop talking about it and you’d be back to pretending like you see more snow than Winchester. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Small adjustments Are all that’s needed here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: The Control is garbage. As useful as the NAM @84hrs or the jma Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Just like your posts 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Unless this showed 30” in your backyard - then you wouldn’t stop talking about it and you’d be back to pretending like you see more snow than Winchester. I know to just leave the control out of the equation at 4 days lead time. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: I’d argue that majority of people in here care Does anyone care about the majority? Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In an hour, I'll be on Amtrak during the 12z runs, heading to NYC for a day appointment. If the Amtrak wifi is per usual, I will have the internet speed of AOL 4.0 with a 56k modem. But I'll try my best to do some pbp. Your best bet might be to pack a bag and stay in NYC 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts