jaydreb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I tuned in to the Euro to see the final nail in the coffin, but now I’m invested for another day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I like where we stand as of now. BOS will rain possibly in the end but the earlier phasing is kind of removing that from the equation. A dry slot will also suffice. If you hate BOS the trends are in your favor. I have been waiting for a year where I defeat Boston in seasonal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro to the other models shifting east. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Another small shift west or slightly earlier full phase... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Another small shift west or slightly earlier full phase... And if it stayed like it showed, I be heading to eastern shore NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Another small shift west or slightly earlier full phase... Oh that is REALLY close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 How’d our most eastern model become the most western lol. The models are playin us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 h/t @ORH_wxman 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has two clusters. One near the BM and another to the west probably kind of like the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 One or two solutions appear to stall off the VA Capes for 2 days? Jeez man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 So by all accounts the size of this storm could be huge if modeled correct. so my question why the sudden cut off in amounts in central MD and central PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ruin said: So by all accounts the size of this storm could be huge if modeled correct. so my question why the sudden cut off in amounts in central MD and central PA? Thar may just have to do with the timing of the phase. As someone else noted, phase earlier by like 6 hours and the storm bombs out just before our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 WB 0Z EURO v 12Z… another 1 day shift west we are all in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 at work all night hard to read every post even if it didnt phase as early as we all would like I was just thinking about the scope of the storm is so big and being maybe a 24 hour event getting sub 6 inchs is pretty bad imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Eps members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Does someone have access to these members lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6z Nam leaves all the SW energy behind. It’s apparent early on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX regarding the potential event By Friday, a deep trough will continue to move further east. Confidence has continued to increase on the negative tilt nature of this trough over the last few runs as it reaches the east coast. The 18/00z runs of the GEFS has backed off the center of low pressure being closer to the coast whereas the EPS/NBM are trending a bit more north-west. A more westward trend could bring a more widespread significant snowfall for portions of the area. For now, there still seems to be some discontinuity in the guidance as to the position of the low which will greatly impacts the snow totals that are received within the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is not a slam dunk by any means with a lack of blocking in the northern Atlantic. Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area with areas closer to the I-95 corridor having the higher totals for now, given where the best forcing/moisture availability resides. Do expect the Alleghenies to receive a fairly consistent snowfall for the event due to upsloping. Given the uncertainties with this event, have kept PoPs through Saturday evening but with a potentially fast moving track on pace, we may see conditions begin to dramatically improve during the day on Saturday. Other story will be the winds with this system with a tight gradient between the strong Arctic high pressure that will bring frigid cold temperatures Thursday and as it departs and the upper trough begins to build into the area. Coupled with these winds will be frigid cold temperatures, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chill values may become more widespread in the negatives, even east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps members? WB 0Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 WB 0Z EPSThere are alot more misses than hits. Am i doing this right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS There are alot more misses than hits. Am i doing this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 27 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 6z Nam leaves all the SW energy behind. It’s apparent early on too. 06z RGEM kicks all the energy out at 84 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z RGEM kicks all the energy out at 84 h5Icon with its best run yet...still wide right for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Models really have no clue how to handle the energy in the SW. Still so many different looks at h5 across the board. We won’t have a consensus for Saturday’s storm until models get a better handle on what’s going on out west (how much energy is left behind, if any, and the amplitude / positioning of the ridge) Until that occurs, I'm not all in on a given solution at this juncture. 6z rgem vs NAM vs ICON is the perfect example. One leaves most of the energy behind, while another kicks it all the way out, resulting in vastly different outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Despite the low spawn out by the Bahamas, we still almost get brushed and SNE gets hit hard (E LI to Boston and downeast Maine) If the low spans along the gulf coast instead, we are very much in the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Mount Holly Discussion this morning. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly Discussion this morning. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent. Perfectly put. I like this sentence here “However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: Perfectly put. I like this sentence here “However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.” Yeah this forecaster is good. Brought that up in the morning AFD yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Gfs continues its awful runs. Nothing like overamped euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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