DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: All due respect, you aren’t part of the nw crew lol. He’s like north central… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I'm sure the 18z ECMWF will make it all better. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 At the very least I don't want to lose the snow associated with the initial northern energy. A cold windy weekend with bare ground and some sort of pattern change looming will be a let down. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Says the dude 100 miles east of me. Lol sorry had too. But it is valid for the NW crew we still weren’t really into it and needed more west trends so a setback is more problematic. Also we all know these miss east 90% of the time so seeing the best global recently go that way feels more meaningful that it should. But it could easily be a blip or head fake. We won’t know until 0z. Yeah this run combined with the depiction on Euro with a late developing low(I am on the sw edge of the good precip) and it is not difficult to see how this might end up based on the overall set up combined with Nina climo. In some cases I can do better here being further east, but many times this ends up a Philly and points NE snowstorm and we both get effed. We just cant know yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Disclaimer: me starting this thread doesn't mean I think It's Happening. Ron Paul is asleep in his basement. Bro, what have you done? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Bro, what have you done? Literally, the next suite of guidance…first piece to come in looks like crap lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Bro, what have you done? I’ve been trying to tell ya’ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I want whatever model this guy is using. We all get hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 WB GEFS 18Z v 12Z not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS 18Z v 12Z not good Damn...that was a big jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn...that was a big jump Yup, keep expectations low… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Good news.The new England forum is tossing the run 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Yup, keep expectations low… Is that what you tell your clients when you take on a new case. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Hey, that omega block is breaking down slower than forecast a few days ago. What a shocker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Ok, gonna do special 18z Euro pbp. I'll compare it to its 12z run and the 18z run of the GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Hey, that omega block is breaking down slower than forecast a few days ago. What a shocker.... Lets see what the 18z Euro looks like at hour 90 wrt the energy in the SW. 18z GFS left it behind more than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 So far, all important features are the same. But this isn't the good part of the movie yet, that's the 60-72 hour zone. Only up to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Is this 18z ‘Oh Canada’? wait, there's and 18z CMC? That's 12z it looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: wait, there's and 18z CMC? That's 12z it looks like? Damn it. I thought the runs looked a bit different. Maybe it is 12z. I removed it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: wait, there's and 18z CMC? That's 12z it looks like? I think thats the 18z RGEM through 84H and then its the 12z CMC but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 So Euro, doesn't have the energy on the western flank (the one that's the "tail") as far west as the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 How's H5 looking? Amped? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I think thats the 18z RGEM through 84H and then its the 12z CMC but I could be wrong. Ah ok, got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 What I can safely say is that the Euro doesn't look like the GFS. Subtle, but important differences. The future "tail" isnt as far back west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Is this 18z ‘Oh Canada’? 18z rgem to 84 hrs then 12z ggem after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 72 hours..difference in position of the tail become even more noticeable. GFS has it back toward Nevada. Euro has it in extreme eastern UTAH..barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18z is even slightly easter than its own 12z run with the "tail" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 58 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I want whatever model this guy is using. We all get hammered. Don't be snarky. The model says, BIG STORM POSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18z RGEM & GGEM (yes it runs at 18z) both have the energy held back quite a bit more than their prior runs and unfortunately took that step back from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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