85snowline Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: I feel if you're west of a line from say Richmond to Raleigh, we're pretty much done unless we get some big trends the next 48 hours. This thing is looking flat and weak until it's off the coast. Lots of energy being left behind. Good lord.. we are still just a bit less then 100hrs from onset! Hello?? Have you forgot last week's insane back and forth the models were doing regarding Friday's event? Hell, the Mets in Charlotte didn't get the forecast right until halfway through the storm.. lol.. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro was further west and quicker with the phase. Verbatim was a 1-3” snowstorm for much of NC with much more in NE NC. Euro actually takes the low inside the benchmark further north and over eastern MA. I’m sure it got some of those folks around Boston a tad bit concerned about mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Well!The 0z Euro was definitely a weenie run for NE NC/Eastern VA! (and up the east coast). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Average southeast weather forum member's reaction if models don't go their way. And members that have been on here a while... And when everyone cashes in 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is thread the needle situation so let the teeth gnashing commence. Problem with relying on super phases is that they almost never pan out. Euro may be on to something but GFS seems like a more likely outcome. Of course I've been wrong 1000x so take what I say with a grain of salt haha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 So far with this storm it seems the euro ensembles have been the most consistent of any models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Euro improved, and the GEFS improved for Raleigh eastward. Not dead by any means for NC and VA. Wouldn't take much for it to be a bigger deal this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro ensembles look good, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro ensembles look good, too. No it doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The back and forth uncertainty will likely not stop anytime soon. Short range models don’t even have the current low in the gulf modeled very well. Quite a bit more moisture than shown. Going to be a long ride this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: No it doesn’t. Was for RDU eastward in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If anyone in NC gets this one I think it will end up being the coast. Unfortunately I am not thinking it will be a 2010 redux at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: If anyone in NC gets this one I think it will end up being the coast. Unfortunately I am not thinking it will be a 2010 redux at this stage. Same here. It's going to be a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I think we should buckle up, as we are in for a good storm. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is an MA/NE storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Things working in SE favor with this storm: Favorable pattern. Storms tend to repeat when you have a good pattern Pattern seems to be dissolving soon and good storms can often come at the end and start of the pattern Euro seems to be holding serve with the big dog solution Things not working in the SE favor with this storm: Reliance on a big phased solution (see image below) Cold 850's but SFC temps need perfect timing WITH a big phase It's the southeast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Things working in SE favor with this storm: Favorable pattern. Storms tend to repeat when you have a good pattern Pattern seems to be dissolving soon and good storms can often come at then end and start of the pattern Euro seems to be holding serve with the big dog solution Things not working in the SE favor with this storm: Reliance on a big phased solution (see image below) Cold 850's but SFC temps need perfect timing WITH a big phase It's the southeast So the rare triple phase of 93?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: So the rare triple phase of 93? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk That's why we always have to bring up 93, 96 or another rare storm cause it almost never happens. Like @Bevo and others have said these almost always end up working out for the NE and rarely workout for the SE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Was for RDU eastward in NC. More for like all of those miserable people in the mid-Atlantic sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro and GFS looked better last run. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Control run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I’ve got a friend that lives on the southeast coast of Delaware. He just sent me the control run… lol. It must be nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I’ve got a friend that lives on the southeast coast of Delaware. He just sent me the control run… lol. It must be nice! When I lived in DC, I loved seeing snow showing for DE at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 57 minutes ago, burgertime said: Things not working in the SE favor with this storm: It's the southeast I fixed your post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 As a general rule growing up in ENC, we rarely saw DC, NYC, BOS also do well when we did. Snow in NC, particularly in this part, is an exclusive business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: As a general rule growing up in ENC, we rarely saw DC, NYC, BOS also do well when we did. Snow in NC, particularly in this part, is an exclusive business. Yep. It's easy to forget how far East of us New England is. Boston is about the same distance East of Greensboro as it is North. (400+ miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is about as zonal as you can get for the East. Need -NAO or more ridging in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Beach Snow said: Control run Can we talk about easy it must be to be a meteorologist in New England? Like close your eyes and Sleep during you shift easy…. They have nothing to look at except track…. They always have Cold Air, They never have Mixing issues or CAD (lol)…. It literally must be as simple as “ohh hey it’s Cold out, here comes liquid yep big storm 16-24” maybe more that’s the only reason I’m watching the track back to you Bob for sports” no this post isn’t me whining it’s making fun of them 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 6z EPSSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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