chris624wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z HRDPS still brings some good snow into Hampton Roads, but the margin for error is razor thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: 18z HRDPS still brings some good snow into Hampton Roads, but the margin for error is razor thin. Very close to the depicted good stuff, will be most interesting to see how the dynamics set up for precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out Just your average popcorn variety snow. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out Agreed. It will be no more than a flizzard for many while a lucky few cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, wake4est said: We’ll that’s an interesting map. Thats a contrast with GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, burgertime said: GFS also further east with the northern energy. That'll make a difference for everyone downstream if it keeps that pace of being slower than the models see. Do you think there is even time left looking at current observations and where energy and NS are for an earlier phase/ more negative tilt to get the low cranking off Hatteras as opposed to the Delmarva? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Question…is the leeside event some models are showing different from the mesolow forming? I am just learning and curious. Thanks!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said: Question…is the leeside event some models are showing different from the mesolow forming? I am just learning and curious. Thanks! . Upslope flow from the NE, called orographic lift. Causes moisture to lift against the mountains and condense, forming precip. That is a separate event from the discussed mesolow, but the presence of it can help the upslope if it's in the right position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Man are the SREF still bullish at this late hour for SE VA or what? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ (cant figure out how to link in KORF) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, VBsurf said: Man are the SREF still bullish at this late hour for SE VA or what? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ (cant figure out how to link in KORF) Wow massive change! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Anyone know how well the SREF plume models are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Beach Snow said: Anyone know how well the SREF plume models are? Terrible. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Anyone know how well the SREF plume models are? They did real decent last storm. This is such a dynamic system its going to be awesome watching it evolve here on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, VBsurf said: They did real decent last storm. This is such a dynamic system its going to be awesome watching it evolve here on the coast. I agree. Where you and i are 20 mile shift will make the difference of 4” or 12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, VBsurf said: They did real decent last storm. This is such a dynamic system its going to be awesome watching it evolve here on the coast. Awesome or a big letdown. I'm leaning toward the latter. Going to be tough to get that Coastal going in time for us. Most likely get a few hours of wind-driven light snow on the backside after she blows up north of our latitude. We actually may be in that no snow screw Zone. Time will tell. No big deal either way. One thing is a guarantee is that wind will be fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out So basically youll get snow while few miles west nothing. Very similar to the summer storms here lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 With this being Convective….. you can see the most likely area … regardless of what Models are showing. Look at the fuel for it to feast on 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 00z HRRR is a hot mess for NE NC/SE VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, chris624wx said: 00z HRRR is a hot mess for NE NC/SE VA... Seems as though my morning coffee run is going to be good to go. Cloudy with a chance of wind lolol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My lord the band on HRR is gorgeous ….also FWIW it has initiated with much less moisture than what’s on radar…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/1486874924329361409?s=21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wow the NAM is gonna crush enc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, wake4est said: Wow the NAM is gonna crush enc I wish other models were showing it too but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: I wish other models were showing it too but.... Did it even initiate correctly this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The 3k NAM snows at my house for 12+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The FV3 is laying the smack down with that band over Catawba, Lincoln, and Gaston Counties. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: The 3k NAM snows at my house for 12+ hrs. And only 2 to 3 inches of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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