sarcean Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Washington/NYC won't like that Hrrr run... Charlotte will though! Love to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So much difference with this storm between the 12km and 3km NAM for coastal area's... it's crazy. 3km NAM and Hrrr give basically nothing to D.C. and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3K NAM looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Also I see a 33 inch jackpot bullseye for NW flow mountain snow on the 3km NAM... The 6 guys who live along the TN/NC border must be excited. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, msuwx said: This one is quite vexing because of the lack of support for the UL-induced band with the RGEM and NAM. I still feel fairly confident it happens….but what a low confidence forecast. Ik you can’t speak for anyone but you… but Think GSP thinks even with limited QPF in general what we do see we will waste trying to get to 30-32? (CLT Metro) . I could see that outcome leaving us high n dry more than it just never occurs but I’m not an expert by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 do you have snow map for the 3K NAM Brick? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I should day the 3K looks better for central NC and worse for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, jlh said: Seems as though AKQ is going with the idea of less accumulation even in coastal NE NC. Afternoon update has most of the snow falling just above freezing except for a few hour span. Cut back from 3-6" to less than 2". Hopefully we can snag a bigger window at freezing than they are thinking but that onshore NE flow, makes a lot of sense why the temps were bumped up. Yikes... they did... 2-3" for the immediate Hampton Roads area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 do you have snow map for the 3K NAM Brick? Thanks3kmSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: Ik you can’t speak for anyone but you… but Think GSP thinks even with limited QPF in general what we do see we will waste trying to get to 30-32? (CLT Metro) . I could see that outcome leaving us high n dry more than it just never occurs but I’m not an expert by any means Just look at the totals for the February 16, 2013 event for a high-end realistic expectation. thermal profiles were similar for that event too. If you get convective/possible thundersnow... the surface will be sub-32 within a minute or two. If you only get 5/100th of liquid from a fringe band... sure, probably not adding up. But if you get 1/2 inch of liquid in an hour or two right under a heavy band... it'll pile up fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 lmao, there's 100 posts about the 12km NAM in the NYC forum... not a single one mentioning the 3km output yet. lolz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, VARTV said: Yikes... they did... 2-3" for the immediate Hampton Roads area... Yup. Seems surface temperatures are going to have a hard time getting down the freezing until near sunrise Saturday morning (back side)so while we might get a lot of snow in the sky, unless its convective/heavy it isn't going to last long on the ground. Makes a lot of sense though, often the story with nor'easters in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yikes, yeah 3k NAM looks like it dry slotted us pretty good. I guess we'll see if that look persists... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The NAM is a joke 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The GSP AFD link is broken. What did you guys do????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The NAM is a joke Yeah, I have less and less been a fan of it of late. But the information passed the other day about it not receiving any more development since 2017 explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hampton Roads early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looking at all the guidance, I'm pretty confident that Coastal area's of South Carolina from somewhere between Charleston and Myrtle Beach will probably see a dusting to an inch. Most of the Hi-RES models send the meat of the meso-low remnants through that area late Friday Night/Early Saturday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, jlh said: Hampton Roads early Saturday morning. 12km NAM is down near freezing at 9z so it's just a matter of how this thing develops. You get those heavier rates and you're golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, chris624wx said: 12km NAM is down near freezing at 9z so it's just a matter of how this thing develops. You get those heavier rates and you're golden. May not matter a whole lot if that dry slot sets up over us. It's all good though, i'll take whatever. Last weekend kind of made the season for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Ik you can’t speak for anyone but you… but Think GSP thinks even with limited QPF in general what we do see we will waste trying to get to 30-32? (CLT Metro) . I could see that outcome leaving us high n dry more than it just never occurs but I’m not an expert by any means I think there’s just more uncertainty than normal that that snow band will set up and exactly where it will. Probably better to play it very conservative and ramp-up than the other way around. could be one of those things where a lot of the accumulations that do occur or mainly on the grassy and elevated surfaces with it taking a while for the surface temperatures to cool. Then again, if this band performs well with rates as some previous setups have done, that won’t matter much. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jlh said: May not matter a whole lot if that dry slot sets up over us. It's all good though, i'll take whatever. Last weekend kind of made the season for us lol. Exactly. I was content after last week's event and now I'm being greedy for this one haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Fabulous Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said: People in the NE thread complianing about whiffing on 20" by getting 16 instead How many winters would you give up to get over a foot down here?! Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk I just want another March 1993 event before I die. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So, either west of the Triangle gets the most, or east of the Triangle, depending on the model. And we're less than 48 hours away. Personally, I think they should all meet in the middle and give the Triangle the most. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Just look at the totals for the February 16, 2013 event for a high-end realistic expectation. thermal profiles were similar for that event too. If you get convective/possible thundersnow... the surface will be sub-32 within a minute or two. If you only get 5/100th of liquid from a fringe band... sure, probably not adding up. But if you get 1/2 inch of liquid in an hour or two right under a heavy band... it'll pile up fast. I literally posted a video of that day (February 16, 2013) in the Sanitorium thread, and what happens if you're under a meso band. Went from 43 degrees to 31 in a matter of minutes with heavy snow. It was textbook. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Love the Nams for my area. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Which model has the CURRENT Surface depicted correctly? I haven’t had Chance to look myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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