Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

Big run for SE VA

[PackGrad05]

So it looks like a ~6 hour period of light snow for central NC.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro with some weak stuff. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Big run for SE VA

And Southern Maryland Eastern Shore

[eyewall]

Yeah without sneaking a meso band in here it will be almost a non-event for Raleigh but it is what it is.

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Where ever it pops around this area it will be raking. 

[Prismshine Productions]

People in the NE thread complianing about whiffing on 20" by getting 16 instead


How many winters would you give up to get over a foot down here?!

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[burgertime]

46 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Where ever it pops around this area it will be raking. 

Yep if you're around Spartenburg, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord and Monroe be on the look out! 

[nwohweather]

15 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

People in the NE thread complianing about whiffing on 20" by getting 16 instead


How many winters would you give up to get over a foot down here?!

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk


 

I'd personally never want to see it. Growing up in Northern OH, anything over 10" was quite debilitating to the region and that was with a plethora of snowplows and houses having proper heating. Many down here don't and a storm of that size is going to have tons of cold on the backside of it that will linger for a few days at least. The infrastructure already cannot support the population surge, I cannot imagine what would happen if SC got something like that.

To this storm, I'm interested to see how much convective feedback may be playing into it. Euro is bombing it to around 965 MB which would be on par with the Midwest Blizzard of 78 strength wise. I think the conveyor belts may be a little overamped which could be why it's so hell bent on dropping 2-4" when in reality 1-2" is probably more likely with isolated amounts of 3"

[burrel2]

Really weird how the canadian models aren't picking up on the lee-side enhancement.  Every other model(hrrr,rap,3k nam, euro, gfs, ukmet) is showing it so I feel pretty safe saying the canadian's are wrong; just strange though.

If I lived around Charlotte I'd be pretty giddy right now.  I think they're in for a treat.  

 

[PantherJustin]

9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Really weird how the canadian models aren't picking up on the lee-side enhancement.  Every other model(hrrr,rap,3k nam, euro, gfs, ukmet) is showing it so I feel pretty safe saying the canadian's are wrong; just strange though.

If I lived around Charlotte I'd be pretty giddy right now.  I think they're in for a treat.  

 

Idk if they’re catching up, but on his video this AM Brad P said models don’t even have that band up in KY/OH area that’s our N energy and still they’re putting 2-4” down in that band 

[Brick Tamland]

End of the HRRR.

[burrel2]

Washington/NYC won't like that Hrrr run... Charlotte will though!

[jlewis1111]

Nam running

[PackGrad05]

Snow will likely still be falling at the end of that HRRR run.  That won't represent storm totals.

[PantherJustin]

That HRR is pretty…. But idk if I’m happy being the jackpot 30hrs out in this setup even if all signs have been consistent 

[burrel2]

3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

That HRR is pretty…. But idk if I’m happy being the jackpot 30hrs out in this setup even if all signs have been consistent 

I'd gladly trade places with you if you aren't happy with your location's chances.

[BornAgain13]

14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

End of the HRRR.

That's the 12z. The new 18z is out.

[PantherJustin]

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

I'd gladly trade places with you if you aren't happy with your location's chances.

No I’m happy but find it hard to believe the best band sets up shop right over my head…. I’m a State fan that stuff doesn’t happen to us 

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM looks more expansive with precip so far coming in from NW

[Brick Tamland]

[MillerA]

GSP Disco - Ouch for the piedmont..They appear not thrilled about advisory level snow. 

 

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: Guidance continues to indicate that
a midlevel trough will sharpen over the Tennessee Valley Friday
evening, even as a 120kt upper jet shifts over the Carolinas,
amplifying into a split stream pattern aloft. This allows upper
divergence to blossom off the NC coast overnight, and paired
with deep-layer DPVA streaming into the Carolinas, this will
result in rapid, potent cyclogenesis off the central Georgia
coast. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
favor the eastward, just-offshore track for the developing
surface low, which suppresses a robust warm conveyor belt across
the NC/SC Piedmont and inhibits development of a warm nose
aloft, allowing for a rare rain-snow-only forecast for the NC
Piedmont and SC Upstate.

From perhaps 00Z Saturday onward, strengthening NW flow across the
mountains will result in a widespread rain-snow mix beginning Friday
evening, transitioning to all-snow by midnight.  Lee troughing
east of the mountains appear to result in the development of an
additional circulation over the Piedmont, depicted in the HREF as a
small-scale low pressure system which skirts just north of the NC-SC
border.  As a result, a changeover from rain to snow is expected
across the NC Piedmont and at least the northernmost part of the SC
Upstate, before profiles dry out leading up to daybreak Saturday.
So, at this point, the NC Foothills/Piedmont and SC Upstate are
forecast to see small accumulations, below advisory criteria; the
NC mountains will see more appreciable snowfall.  A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for Buncombe and northern Jackson Counties,
while an elevation-dependent Winter Weather Warning-Advisory has
been issued for counties along the NC-TN border.

After daybreak Saturday, the rapid intrusion of dry cP air on the
backside of the departing system will sap profiles of their ability
to produce precipitation, even as Z500 heights rebound.  Gusty winds
embedded in post frontal CAA are likely across the mountains
and, more sporadically, the NC/SC Piedmont. Clear, dry
conditions will maximize radiative cooling Saturday night,
allowing temps to drop into the mid- to low-teens across most of
the forecast area.

[snowbird1230]

Warnings posted for mountains 

3"-8" snow

[wncsnow]

The NAM looks pitiful for everyone except high mountains and far eastern NC and VA

[jlh]

Seems as though AKQ is going with the idea of less accumulation even in coastal NE NC. Afternoon update has most of the snow falling just above freezing except for a few hour span. Cut back from 3-6" to less than 2". Hopefully we can snag a bigger window at freezing than they are thinking but that onshore NE flow, makes a lot of sense why the temps were bumped up.

[Brick Tamland]

NAM looks pitiful for central NC. 

[msuwx]

This one is quite vexing because of the lack of support for the UL-induced band with the RGEM and NAM. 
 

I still feel fairly confident it happens….but what a low confidence forecast. 

[PantherJustin]

7 minutes ago, MillerA said:

GSP Disco - Ouch for the piedmont..They appear not thrilled about advisory level snow. 

 

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: Guidance continues to indicate that
a midlevel trough will sharpen over the Tennessee Valley Friday
evening, even as a 120kt upper jet shifts over the Carolinas,
amplifying into a split stream pattern aloft. This allows upper
divergence to blossom off the NC coast overnight, and paired
with deep-layer DPVA streaming into the Carolinas, this will
result in rapid, potent cyclogenesis off the central Georgia
coast. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
favor the eastward, just-offshore track for the developing
surface low, which suppresses a robust warm conveyor belt across
the NC/SC Piedmont and inhibits development of a warm nose
aloft, allowing for a rare rain-snow-only forecast for the NC
Piedmont and SC Upstate.

From perhaps 00Z Saturday onward, strengthening NW flow across the
mountains will result in a widespread rain-snow mix beginning Friday
evening, transitioning to all-snow by midnight.  Lee troughing
east of the mountains appear to result in the development of an
additional circulation over the Piedmont, depicted in the HREF as a
small-scale low pressure system which skirts just north of the NC-SC
border.  As a result, a changeover from rain to snow is expected
across the NC Piedmont and at least the northernmost part of the SC
Upstate, before profiles dry out leading up to daybreak Saturday.
So, at this point, the NC Foothills/Piedmont and SC Upstate are
forecast to see small accumulations, below advisory criteria; the
NC mountains will see more appreciable snowfall.  A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for Buncombe and northern Jackson Counties,
while an elevation-dependent Winter Weather Warning-Advisory has
been issued for counties along the NC-TN border.

After daybreak Saturday, the rapid intrusion of dry cP air on the
backside of the departing system will sap profiles of their ability
to produce precipitation, even as Z500 heights rebound.  Gusty winds
embedded in post frontal CAA are likely across the mountains
and, more sporadically, the NC/SC Piedmont. Clear, dry
conditions will maximize radiative cooling Saturday night,
allowing temps to drop into the mid- to low-teens across most of
the forecast area.

No offense, but I got 2” last week and didn’t ever get an Advisory so it’s W/E

[NorthHillsWx]

SE VA and NE NC just got NAM’d. Great run for those areas