wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Time to see if the 12k and 3k NAM are still bipolar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, mclean02 said: This is my bold map for this weekends storm. My wife says to expect anywhere from a trace to 8 feet...i said what if we get nothing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, wake4est said: Oof. Through 44 the HRRRRRR is doing well for the Piedmont, complete whiff for the Triangle. Not sure this qualifies as a whiff. I see 1 inch of snow for most of the triangle with 1-3” west of there based on this depiction of a mesoscale feature. I think most would live with this event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM what are you doing...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 HRRR also managed to not drop a flake of snow in NYC… not sure I buy anything that models selling at this range. It’s way east and weak with the LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: NAM what are you doing... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Bad? That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event: As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Its only out to 24 nobody can say its bad yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event: As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one. I love the video from that heavy band. Wish we’d spent another two hours in it. Was really coming down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Look at 27Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This run is nothing close to the Euro or other short range. No moisture in Western or Central NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Way too much southern energy being strung out and left behind. That’s why the phase is occurring so late and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 https://twitter.com/mikemasco/status/1486694460830461953?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM moving towards ECMWF somewhat. Less qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RAP Model also showing similar setup to Hrrr with meso low and banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hr 39 on the nam is boom for e nc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NAM moving towards ECMWF somewhat. Less qpf. No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Not trying to be rude…. But as some have mentioned in our Sanitarium the play by play here is insane …. I read our play by play and it’s everyone saying 30 different things. Meanwhile I go to Mid-A Forum it’s saying something completely different, unfortunately I don’t have time to look for myself this AM but can we all come to some sort of agreement unspoken to not crown or toss a model run 3 frames in please ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Better run for the nam. Trough more negative tilted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM seems to be farther east this time. Less precip in the Triangle, more east of Wake. Crazy how different the models are with where the precip is less than 36 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 That was an ugly NAM run with the exception of Eastern NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM seems to be farther east this time. Less precip in the Triangle, more east of Wake. Crazy how different the models are with where the precip is less than 36 hours out. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, snowmaker13 said: No. No what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The 3k has more moisture in VA and the NC piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: That was an ugly NAM run with the exception of Eastern NC Everyone is focused on precip when the low hasn't even formed yet. Models are hydrostatic. 500mb is what should be analyzed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Meanwhile the 3K had the precip west of Wake at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3K brings the precip west to east like the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The band that the HRRR and 3k are showing is very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think the last few weeks has shown that the NAM is not reliable at all. Brad P even mentioned concerns about its reliability over the last few years since they are transitioning to FV3 and HRRR. If you throw out the "bad runs", you also need to throw out the "good" runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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