BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 0z RGEM is also better this run... nothing like the NAM, but a trend in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM is west too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The suspect ULL has entered CONUS. Soundings from it obviously changed models. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The ICON is also better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ugh. Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee. 12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills. ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there. So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches. Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam seems to be the outlier at this point. No other modeL shows as much snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam seems to be the outlier at this point. No other modeL shows as much snowRight now it isn't the outlier because it set the stage for the westward shift, we will worry about precip totals tomorrow Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Ugh. Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee. 12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills. ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there. So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches. Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”. Feeling your pain here also. Either of our locales could be just dusted or a nice little maxima. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Ugh. Such a difference in possible outcomes here in the lee. 12K NAM and RGEM show nothing just to the east of the foothills. ICON, FV3, 3KNAM, and earlier runs of the GFS show a little precip maximum there. So, could get completely blanked here in Hickory or could get a couple of decent inches. Like always, never really know until it’s “Go time”. I am right here with you! You know from being in this area if we get a meso low to form just under the mountains into the upstate we will be in business. The models have a very hard time depicting that small scale feature and if it happens it can wreck a forecast in a heartbeat. I remember the Jan storm of 2003 and watching Eric Thomas break in with upgraded winter storm warnings and upping our advisory totals from 2-3" to 6-10". Also remember the old weather channel radar just pivot on top of the foothills and piedmont and basically snow all night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM continues to go hard. At least it's consistent. And now.we have the RGEM looking better. Can we have two storms in a row that shift for the better just 36 hours out? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM continues to go hard. At least it's consistent. And now.we have the RGEM looking better. Can we have two storms in a row that shift for the better just 36 hours out? Set your expectations for 0 and you won’t be disappointed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Set your expectations for 0 and you won’t be disappointed I think 3 inches here would be good 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Knock off 20% QPF on the NAM. It loves to overdo QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Avdave said: Knock off 20% QPF on the NAM. It loves to overdo QPF It use to, not so much anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It use to, not so much anymore. I still dont trust it when it is spitting our ridiculous QPF. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Remember this folks, especially up into VA, the snow ratio will be higher than 10:1 and the Kuchera that is being shared is not to accurate on some of these models... some places will get higher than what these runs are showing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWake Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Charlotte (I’m a student at UNCC so disregard the username) looks to be right on the edge so not really expecting much. Cheering for all the folks in CNC/ENC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS out to 36, does not look as good as the night models so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: GFS out to 36, does not look as good as the night models so far... 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: GFS out to 36, does not look as good as the night models so far... Probably the worst run it’s produced with the storm LOL! Crazy that 48 hrs out or so you have the hi-res models with a completely different look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yea the GFS is a dumpster fire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The GFS is ugly... don't even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Funny thing is I recall folks in the past say when we're this close don't look at the globals anymore, look at the short range models. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yeah, what a craptacular run, for everyone everywhere, on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Hahaha blanks Beantown too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Funny thing is I recall folks in the past say when we're this close don't look at the globals anymore, look at the short range models. Brick —- the Euro wipes it’s ass with the NAM. Please understand this objective fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yea the GFS is a dumpster fire run 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The GFS is ugly... don't even look at it. Tell you what if it scores a coup here I would be beyond myself. Vastly different look compared to all other guidance. Hell even the damn JMA is tucked AF. So you got Nam/RGEM/JMA (euro to an extent from 18z) vs the GFS with Canadian about to run. And yes I completely realize I just put the Nam RGEM and JMA all in one group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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