eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Models are really honing in on that lee-side swirl hammering foothills/piedmont. IIRC, it's been a long time where we've had that feature in a snow setup... but when we did it typically over-peforms and holds together further east than models show. If I was in Central NC I would be super excited about that feature right now. And honestly it seems like you need to root for the more OTS solutions for the feature to gain steam. It makes sense I guess with the super strong N/W surface flow west of the apps... creates a nice little eddy on the lee side where things get going. The more amped/closer to the coast solution have a more northerly flow(and lower pressure field in general towards the coast), and I guess that's why they weren't as excited about this backside feature. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Models are really honing in on that lee-side swirl hammering foothills/piedmont. IIRC, it's been a long time where we've had that feature in a snow setup... but when we did it typically over-peforms and holds together further east than models show. If I was in Central NC I would be super excited about that feature right now. And honestly it seems like you need to root for the more OTS solutions for the feature to gain steam. It makes sense I guess with the super strong N/W surface flow west of the apps... creates a nice little eddy on the lee side where things get going. The more amped/closer to the coast solution have a more northerly flow(and lower pressure field in general towards the coast), and I guess that's why they weren't as excited about this backside feature. Yea, if so that band looks better than the far west edge we had last Friday as far as duration and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just another observation... it seems like the models that are really OTS and less-amped... are propagating the lee side band more in a Southeast direction... could lead to a surprise few inches in places like columbia and maybe all the way to the SC coast. The middle of the road solutions propagate it more east towards the triangle,(but fizzle it out a bit as it gets there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Check out the hi-res NAM... it nearly develops a closed lee-side low pressure swirl centered roughly over Columbia at the end of its run. Nice precip band swirling around it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Just another observation... it seems like the models that are really OTS and less-amped... are propagating the lee side band more in a Southeast direction... could lead to a surprise few inches in places like columbia and maybe all the way to the SC coast. The middle of the road solutions propagate it more east towards the triangle,(but fizzle it out a bit as it gets there). These do tend to overperform when they develop but rarely do they make too Far East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Models are really honing in on that lee-side swirl hammering foothills/piedmont. IIRC, it's been a long time where we've had that feature in a snow setup... but when we did it typically over-peforms and holds together further east than models show. If I was in Central NC I would be super excited about that feature right now. And honestly it seems like you need to root for the more OTS solutions for the feature to gain steam. It makes sense I guess with the super strong N/W surface flow west of the apps... creates a nice little eddy on the lee side where things get going. The more amped/closer to the coast solution have a more northerly flow(and lower pressure field in general towards the coast), and I guess that's why they weren't as excited about this backside feature. This is what can happen in an ideal leeside low situation 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This is a great write up about that event. This setup is not completely dissimilar... https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Dang I missed the 12z Ukmet... It shows the potential with the lee-side band. There could be some big surprises for some people in our area I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 #PositiveVibesOnlySent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 How does the 18z GEFS look compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 There's going to be some epic weenie runs on the hi-res models once we get inside 48hrs I think. Both the 18z GFS(around charlotte) and 12z Ukmet(around greensboro) are showing isolated .6-1 inch liquid totals with the backside meso-low band... and those are coarse globals.... Hi-RES NAM was sexy at 60hrs too... It's got nearly 1/2 inch of liquid just north of Augusta, GA and still ripping... also another near 1/2 inch maxima east of hendersonville, NC and still ripping there too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: There's going to be some epic weenie runs on the hi-res models once we get inside 48hrs I think. Both the 18z GFS(around charlotte) and 12z Ukmet(around greensboro) are showing isolated .6-1 inch liquid totals with the backside meso-low band... and those are coarse globals.... Hi-RES NAM was sexy at 60hrs too... Could be a fine line of about 30-40 miles wide of a narrow band of 4-6" somewhere in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Per 18z gfs precip output model Wake county will be shopping at 'the gap'. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=snod&rh=2022012612&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=loop&mc= GEFS trends look, um, horrible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 RAH makes no mention of the lee side low, but that is an interesting prospect. They do mention f-gen banding could surprised some people though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, burrel2 said: There's going to be some epic weenie runs on the hi-res models once we get inside 48hrs I think. Both the 18z GFS(around charlotte) and 12z Ukmet(around greensboro) are showing isolated .6-1 inch liquid totals with the backside meso-low band... and those are coarse globals.... Hi-RES NAM was sexy at 60hrs too... It's got nearly 1/2 inch of liquid just north of Augusta, GA and still ripping... also another near 1/2 inch maxima east of hendersonville, NC and still ripping there too. Ik it’s a different setup but wasn’t March 2009 just a backside Deform Band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Ik it’s a different setup but wasn’t March 2009 just a backside Deform Band? Yea, that wasn't a mesoscale feature though, lol. That was a mega bowling ball closed off upper level low. We won't have the upper level divergence like that one did. (We would have if the fantasy runs giving us 20-30 inches from several days ago were real) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 March 2010 Mesoband: 8 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: March 2010 Mesoband: I’ve seen that video a few times…. Dumped quite a bit up in NE NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: I’ve seen that video a few times…. Dumped quite a bit up in NE NC Yep. I took that back then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Ik it’s a different setup but wasn’t March 2009 just a backside Deform Band? I was in Clemson for that. Was absolutely dumping snow after it flipped from rain, some of the heaviest rates I’ve seen in daylight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not saying it will be in thus exact location but a decent band of snow could set up for a few hrs and deliver higher totals somewhere....Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not saying it will be in thus exact location but a decent band of snow could set up for a few hrs and deliver higher totals somewhere.... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Been MIA on vacation back home in Connecticut for the last week. What are we looking at 1-3” if we’re lucky? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z Euro really jackpotting Spartanburg/cherokee/union counties in SC with the meso-enhancment. Lines up well with the winners from the 2013 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 18z Euro really jackpotting Spartanburg/cherokee/union counties in SC with the meso-enhancment. Lines up well with the winners from the 2013 event. Nice pocket up 85 for CLT corridor also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18z euro ticked up for SeVa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Beach Snow said: 18z euro ticked up for SeVa One good thing verbatim…. That band in NC expanded to help most of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: 18z euro ticked up for SeVa Check, please! (if that's as good as it'll get haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 One good thing verbatim…. That band in NC expanded to help most of usThat was a good 45 mile shift southSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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