olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Canadian ensembles big shift from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Exactly, I’d be more worried about this coming too far NW and being Rain for all but elevation than OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Almost identical to 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 CIPS Worst case scenario 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 NAM ticked sw again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 41 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Almost identical to 2010 No complaints here. That dumped 10 inches in this area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Not that it matters currently…. But NAM/GFS/CMC all look 90% identical in 500 placements at 84hr…. Ik it’s 84hr NAM but nothing else going on in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yeah, seen a lot of folks mention the Christmas 2010 storm in comparison to this one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Yeah, seen a lot of folks mention the Christmas 2010 storm in comparison to this one. I hope so, we ended up with 14” in SE Va 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 You would have to use 12z hr 90 on the GFS to match the timeframesSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z NAM further SW and even a bit sharper with the trough axis at long range. I know it’s the long range NAM but it’s continuing the trend. With the absence of significant blocking I do wonder if we may end up with development too far west and a rainstorm. I know we’re not there yet but these are all significant and honestly expected trends with a low of this strength. Something to watch at least. For now we seem to be in a decent spot to get SOMETHING out of this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z NAM further SW and even a bit sharper with the trough axis at long range. I know it’s the long range NAM but it’s continuing the trend. With the absence of significant blocking I do wonder if we may end up with development too far west and a rainstorm. I know we’re not there yet but these are all significant and honestly expected trends with a low of this strength. Something to watch at least. For now we seem to be in a decent spot to get SOMETHING out of this Certainly possible but the ridge axis out west is in a good spot for a Miller A coastal system. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Certainly possible but the ridge axis out west is in a good spot for a Miller A coastal system. Boom 10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Canadian looked a fair bit colder than the others. Had the triad in the lower 20's Friday morning and around 30 @ 7pm with precip. Would like to see precip maps. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 From Mike Maze:Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: From Mike Maze:Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. I'm not forecasting anything as of now, but the models never look good until they do. If all you do is look at the ensemble statistical output you're just a modelologist. Nothing more. 15 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I'm not forecasting anything as of now, but the models never look good until they do. If all you do is look at the ensemble statistical output you're just a modelologist. Nothing more. In reality though, whether we agree or not as brick stated earlier it seems Pros haven’t dethroned the EURO as forum junkies have…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Speaking of junkies, where has Telejunkie been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: In reality though, whether we agree or not as brick stated earlier it seems Pros haven’t dethroned the EURO as forum junkies have…. I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z GFS pretty far east 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z GFS pretty far eastWhich is fine for nowSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range. I agree…. I think it’s only been “dethroned” here bc it hasn’t made us feel warm n fuzzy lately. If it was in GFS/GEFS position for this weekend Mets would be all over it for “Chances” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The 18z GFS is a backslide in the wrong direction for sure. The primary wave in the southwest starts off in good position but the phase is more partial and late. Almost a miss by the northern stream wave. Hopefully a blip but not reassuring of course. Even most of the New England forum won't like this one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 53 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range. 100%. It’s easy to love the GFS and it’s over amped solutions though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: From Mike Maze:Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. This is why I come to these boards 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is why I come to these boards No kidding. No wonder people are coming to boards like this and twitter for their weather. When your local tv met is giving answers like that...lol. Yikes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: From Mike Maze:Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. They have been saying the Euro did the best with the last storm, too, and it didn't. They always hug the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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