TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What are you talking about Look at the trends for the NAM the last few runs. The snow line keeps creeping east. It looks like it is playing catch up to the other models. I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If I have the time I may attempt an early call map after the 12z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Granted the NAM has been fairly consistent for what--4 runs in a row now? Still, this just makes me want to see the 12z LR model runs. The diversity in solutions will most assuredly need to start consolidating soon. We have all the RAOBs ingested now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Granted the NAM has been fairly consistent for what--4 runs in a row now? Still, this just makes me want to see the 12z LR model runs. The diversity in solutions will most assuredly need to start consolidating soon. We have all the RAOBs ingested now right? I believe so. This 12z GFS will be the big one in terms of where we are going with this I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: I believe so. This 12z GFS will be the big one in terms of where we are going with this I think. If you think we’re freaking out down here have you looked up North EURO destroys NNJ/NY GFS barely anything. I mean something’s gotta give at some point from SC to Maine all included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 RGEM? 12z breakdown anyone? Edit: Slight shift west. Very small changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Very similar solution playing out for NC as last weekend. Will need to milk everything we can get out of that upper level jet passing NW of the main LP bc it’s trending for us to be outside the main precip field. QPF looks very similar to Friday but temps are warmer and much warmer to start. If I was making a call map, from Charlotte to Greensboro-east I’d take what you got on Friday and divide it by 3. I think eastern NC is the only exception but there will be a much more drastic cutoff since this is a much stronger low and will have more influence on these areas. I think a large chunk of the state gets 1” with isolated 2” amounts and a sharp gradient to a 6-8”+ zone wherever that developing comma head sets up and banding is established. Probably another storm where almost everyone sees some snow in NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 For what it’s worth, the 3k NAM is a very good look on its last frame. That’s going to end well for a lot of folks if you extrapolate that forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: RGEM? 12z breakdown anyone? Little weaker and later phase than 6z run. Much later than NAM so the low is too far north and east by the time it forms. NE NC outerbanks get good snow but not much else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: For what it’s worth, the 3k NAM is a very good look on its last frame. That’s going to end well for a lot of folks if you extrapolate that forward Yup, great low location off the coast of Florida. If that phases early enough and rides up the coast there will be alot of happy people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Even if I pick up 2 inches in an hour or so with a deform band and that is it, that is much more fun than 12 hours of microflakes. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Little weaker and later phase than 6z run. Much later than NAM so the low is too far north and east by the time it forms. NE NC outerbanks get good snow but not much else. I guess we’ve trashed our new lover? One storm Fling? Not very nice 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I guess we’ve trashed our new lover? One storm Fling? Not very nice Best model until it doesn’t show what we want, then we toss 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Wave 1 in a similar position to the NAM at this stage on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z GFS doesn't look like it'll get it done. Energy in the west is slower. Once it phases it gets all strung out out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yea that southern energy just sits back west much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's not terrible but not great either. Snow showers across much of the state maybe a few places in ENC get 2+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It still looks like it may be better than the previous couple of runs but yeah it is weaker with the thumbnail ridge in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Welp, NAM is on an island for sure. GFS trending away from an event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS lining up with last euro run it seems on that band thru western piedmont. eastern piedmont a little drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Still plenty of time. Nothing has really changed over the past 2-3 days if you look at the big picture. Still looks like a rain/snow event with light amounts possible over central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Starting to look like you want to be in two places. Mtns of WNC or extreme NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It is looking like a brief deform band event as the low begins to crank and pulls away. DC weenies won't like this one very much. Looks like a nice hit in SE Mass. It is a shame we can't pull a big one from this but it's better than nothing I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The GFS looks good overall and the low forms in a good location. It’s just that southern energy is so strung out from being held back that there’s not enough juice in the atmosphere to get the precip really going until it’s too late for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: It still looks like it may be better than the previous couple of runs but yeah it is weaker with the thumbnail ridge in the west. (Not you eyewall ) How’s this terrible? It’s not a massive dump…. But not a clear starry night either can we stop crying or rejoicing after every model run ? No I’m not trying to be high n mighty it’s depressing lol but still better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now