HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 hours ago, HKY_WX said: The trough is a bit too positively tilted to throw enough moisture back (at least in the southern Mid-Atlantic). The best bet on this one is for the northern stream to continue to trend a bit stronger/further west. That enables it to capture the southern energy (there a few different ways this could happen though). This would draw in a little more gulf moisture and also result in a quicker phase which would tilt the trough more negative and allow the SLP to track closer to the coast. The chance is there, but again the odds aren't great unless we see some solid trends soon. To reiterate this. The NAM didnt leave any energy behind in the southwest resulting in a full lattitude negatively titled trough aka phase. We need that energy to be captured by the northern stream for this to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It was occluding into a comma head at 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 ICON was *reallly* close, it is trending betterSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS is rolling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Slightly taller ridge at 48... Dig dig digSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: Slightly taller ridge at 48... Dig dig dig Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Looks like the NAM as far as Placement at 54…. Central NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This run doesn't look as good as the 18z so far... don't think it's gonna get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 hr60Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Has more of a positive tilt than 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 72Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's slightly east of 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS east shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's not as good as 18z but not bad either... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 It literally came down to the ridge out west shifting it eastSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Hour 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Great article about how ensembles work if anyone is interested. https://www.wral.com/how-wral-meteorologists-use-ensemble-forecasting-to-determine-the-chance-of-1-or-3-snow-in-your-town/20099023/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Looks more like the 12z run than 18z. Southern energy is lagging some again so the phase is later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro has been most consistent so far. Less fluctuations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I think it's pretty clear, as long as that energy doesn't get left behind, we will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 GEFS is out to 42, let's see...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS wasn't as good that time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: GEFS is out to 42, let's see... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk I imagine it will follow the OP and be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 GFS still looks like a pretty great event for NE NC/ SE VA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 I imagine it will follow the OP and be similar. Yep...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: Yep... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk OP even looked rough for the Yankee Crew …. The freak out up there is legit… like dude omg were only gonna get 1 foot instead of 4 im gonna cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just looking at the CMC out to 54... Looks like a later phaseSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Great article about how ensembles work if anyone is interested. https://www.wral.com/how-wral-meteorologists-use-ensemble-forecasting-to-determine-the-chance-of-1-or-3-snow-in-your-town/20099023/ I hate these charts even more after reading this article. This article does not explain how ensembles work. It explains how WRAL takes the number of ensemble members that show 1 inch of snow for your backyard out of the total 50 that run with each ECMWF iteration to manufacture a “probability” or “chance” of 1 inch of snow in your backyard. That’s not a “probability” of 1 inch of snow. It’s a “percentage” of ensemble members that show the desired outcome. Those 50 ensemble members aren’t the only possible 50 outcomes for how the storm system could evolve, and they aren’t equally likely outcomes. It’s not a probability. If all it takes to be a meteorologist is being able to calculate percentages of ensemble members that show a particular outcome and making a pretty chart to graph it, then sign me up. Rant over. I’ll shut up now and promise to stop commenting on these charts even though people keep posting them in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yep, later phase...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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