NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Good luck nailing this one down. Localized variance will 100% affect the perceived outcome of how this plays out 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Models are spitting out such a tiny amount of qpf I wouldn't be surprised to see most of central NC end up with nothing on the ground unless you get under a nice band. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I wouldn't be so hung up on QPF. This likely won't be big storm. But given the setup it has a good shot of over-performing. Everything will be reliant on how this system phases. Right now the jackpot zone looks along I-85 but this is a fluid situation etc.. That can move or expand quickly. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RAP has snow breaking out in the NC mountains at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: Models are spitting out such a tiny amount of qpf I wouldn't be surprised to see most of central NC end up with nothing on the ground unless you get under a nice band. Agreed. Getting the feeling this will be a 0-3” forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Finally getting a little bit of snow here at 43. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, burgertime said: I wouldn't be so hung up on QPF. This likely won't be big storm. But given the setup it has a good shot of over-performing. Everything will be reliant on how this system phases. Right now the jackpot zone looks along I-85 but this is a fluid situation etc.. That can move or expand quickly. gonna be lots of Cape watching Tomm for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, calculus1 said: That 2009 storm was absolute torture for those of us living in Caldwell County. That lee side minimum was horrific. My first Son was born on 3/4/09 and We drove from 3" at the house into around 10" in Cleveland county that morning. Here is the case study https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RAP has only 3 hours of snowfall for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GDPS looks good at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RAP gives me around 3". I'll take it and run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Honestly you can look at the models till your eyes bleed but it's going to be a nowcast situation. Setup at 5h is there though and getting a quick 2-4 under this setup should be fun. I feel like this is one of the few times it could really catch a lot by surprise but optimism in the southeast is like wishing on the lottery haha. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 CMC isn't happy.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So we still have models showing different things. Some with more snow in the western half of NC, and some in the eastern half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It is looking more and more like Raleigh will be stuck in the screw zone between the late phasing coastal and the lee side low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Welp.. at least GFS wants us to lose a ton of sleep between now and next Saturday showing that doozie for next weekend multiple runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Welp.. at least GFS wants us to lose a ton of sleep between now and next Saturday showing that doozie for next weekend multiple runs Yea…. Temps below Zero too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 After the model runs today my thoughts are this has devolved into a novelty event. These meso-features never work out for many and that looks like our only mode for snow with this. I think most will see flakes but accumulation will be extremely limited and localized. Will be fun now casting but this will not be an event where general accumulation should be expected outside a few bands. On to the next one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Seems like a good call here. Though I do think this low could go rouge and still help you guys out in RDU. Gonna use my "healing skies" gut for that. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: If we some how in Charlotte pull 2"+ from this I would consider that a big win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Trying its hardest to not cut-off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, sarcean said: If we some how in Charlotte pull 2"+ from this I would consider that a big win If you get under a heavy band it likely will happen. These convective snows can really put out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 For CLT/Foothills peeps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: For CLT/Foothills peeps Here is the higher end totals from the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Euro continues the trend of the meso low and heavier rates in western piedmont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Euro out to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 And at 48 the snow is in the eastern half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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