Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: The band that the HRRR and 3k are showing is very nice! Yeah, those would give most of NC snow, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The band that the HRRR and 3k are showing is very nice! I don't think I would consider this very nice but it's something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I think the last few weeks has shown that the NAM is not reliable at all. Brad P even mentioned concerns about its reliability over the last few years since they are transitioning to FV3 and HRRR. If you throw out the "bad runs", you also need to throw out the "good" runs. Why is this a "bad" run compared to 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I put "bad" and "good" in quotation marks because it is subjective (whether you want snow or don't want snow). I just meant that sometimes we praise the NAM when it shows what we want, but discuss how it is inaccurate when it doesn't show desired outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think what we're seeing is the mods having difficulty handling the last minute phase possibility. The NAM actually trended better this run for that. IMO there will likely be a band setting up over central NC tomorrow night/Sat Morn that will pivot east. The strength of the band will be totally dependent on how much phasing we see at the last minute. More phasing and this band could drop 6+. Less phasing and it's just some snow squalls. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Everyone is focused on precip when the low hasn't even formed yet. Models are hydrostatic. 500mb is what should be analyzed. This, 1000% this, if the 500 Placement is where we need it Tomm the Precip will take care of itself… and for now as you said that was a better run in the uppers 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: This, 1000% this, if the 500 Placement is where we need it Tomm the Precip will take care of itself… and for now as you said that was a better run in the uppers Yea I wholeheartedly agree with this. So many of us want the surface to look what we want it to look like with LP placement/moisture/moisture transport etc.. with there being additional phasing being modeled it will work itself out if it continues that way up until game time. I sense some type of sneaky last minute type setup for some of us. This is a VERY difficult setup to have the models nail down to the tee. A lot of moving pieces. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I don't know whether to feel nervous or confident about the fact that most models have consistently put the best banding over the triad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This setup really will be interesting tomorrow night. There likely will be localized areas that benefit from small scale features and get some decent banding. From what I’m seeing tho this will not be an area-wide score, though I think most areas see some snow. I think 0.5”-1.5” from the foothills east is a good bet but someone in there will get 3-4” where impossible to predict meso features develop. Nothings changed on that front since yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So Hrrr, Rap, 3km Nam, Euro all showing heaviest snow axis running up and down basically I77. I'd say that area right now is looking to have the best shot for several inches. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Anyone have 6z Euro, curious to see if it had same axis of snow in Piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, WXNewton said: So Hrrr, Rap, 3km Nam, Euro all showing heaviest snow axis running up and down basically I77. I'd say that area right now is looking to have the best shot for several inches. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think it’s more to do with the Instability in this area as Eric mentioned in that tweet, so really we may not know until Tomm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Anyone have 6z Euro, curious to see if it had same axis of snow in Piedmont?6z euro Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like right now all the models except the NAM have the precip in NC moving west to east across the state. NAM is the only one that keeps the precip in Wake and to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll take 1 to 2 with maybe a shot at 3 to 4. This really looks like one of those deals where we won't know amounts until it's already unfolding. We're less than 48 hours out now. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3km NAM basically caved to the GFS… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rgem isn't as good for Raleigh this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Rock steady RGEM - it will win again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Another thing id like to see as the Afternoon suite comes in…. Which model Short range or Global is actually right at the surface now…. I feel like we do this every storm too, if it’s not right now it’s entire run is gonna be wrong and useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Let's see what Goofus has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Snow starting to break out in the NC mountains at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Coming into Wake at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 And gone by 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 HRDPS is really not a bad look. Also higher resolution then the nam 3km. This is at the end of its run. Still snowing… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 A little improvement on that run for the GFS but still out there on its own for the most part. We'll just have to bow down if it pegs this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: That 2009 storm was absolute torture for those of us living in Caldwell County. That lee side minimum was horrific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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