Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 At least with the last storm the globals and NAM were pretty close to being on the same page with 24 hours to go. This time we have the globals on different pages and the NAM reading a whole other book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 For those still learning and getting confused on what to look for etc.. Euro/NAM is really exciting because it does a big phase which will typically create dynamic weather across a large portion of the southeast. 00z Euro and the NAM tonight really do something special. So what is a phase? Let's use the 00z Euro run tonight to paint the picture: You can see on the map below there are three pieces of energy floating across the US. If these stay as they are essentially separate from each other you end up with small storms across small pockets of the states. What we want to see is these three pieces doing the magic dance and combining to form one big piece of energy like the second image. Past runs across models have shown this happening so, what's different? The problem is that previously this phase was staying positively tilted or neutral. When we say "positive tilt", "neutral tilt" and "negative tilt" what do we mean? This is the orientation of that energy. The Euro and NAM have it go neutral early vs. the GFS. This is an interesting song where if it goes neutral to negative just in time you can get a bomb. When a storm is positively tilted it can push moisture too far south. If it's negative it can pull moisture up. The Euro goes negative just in the nick of time. But what we want to see is for it to go negative just a tick earlier. You can see below all that deep orange and red below. That is a lot of energy which should create dynamics conducive for snow across NC. All and all this could be a big surprise if we keep seeing these trends. This has always been reliant on a perfect phase and it's pretty damn close. 11 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hopefully the Euro is getting on the same page with the NAM. Didn't folks use to say if the Euro and NAM were showing the same thing you can pretty much gurantee it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, burgertime said: For those still learning and getting confused on what to look for etc.. Euro/NAM is really exciting because it does a big phase which will typically create dynamic weather across a large portion of the southeast. 00z Euro and the NAM tonight really do something special. So what is a phase? Let's use the 00z Euro run tonight to paint the picture: You can see on the map below there are three pieces of energy floating across the US. If these stay as they are essentially separate from each other you end up with small storms across small pockets of the states. What we want to see is these three pieces doing the magic dance and combing to form one big piece of energy like the second image. Past runs across models have shown this happening so, what's different? The problem is that previously this phase was staying positively tilted or neutral. When we say "positive tilt", "neutral tilt" and "negative tilt" what do we mean? This is the orientation of that energy. The Euro and NAM have it go neutral early vs. the GFS. This is an interesting song where if it goes neutral to negative just in time you can get a bomb. When a storm is positively tilted it can push moisture too far south. If it's negative it can pull moisture up. The Euro goes negative just in the nick of time. But what we want to see is for it to go negative just a tick earlier. You can see below all that deep orange and red below. That is a lot of energy which should create dynamics conducive for snow across NC. All and all this could be a big surprise if we keep seeing these trends. This has always been reliant on a perfect phase and it's pretty damn close. Thank you for taking the time to explain these concepts, Burgertime. It is very helpful in understanding what we are look at and for! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoolBreeze said: Thank you for taking the time to explain these concepts, Burgertime. It is very helpful in understanding what we are look at and for! You're welcome. Hopefully, you all can cash in! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Waking up looking at the morning runs like meh... need some better phasing... the NAM, of course took a step back from its great run at 0Z... and others are still similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 AKQ issued Watch for the coastal plain, calling for 3-6". Forecast discussion noted they were going with the Euro as the middle ground between the GFS and NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 49 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Waking up looking at the morning runs like meh... need some better phasing... the NAM, of course took a step back from its great run at 0Z... and others are still similar... It didn’t look too bad at 5h just came out drier on the sfc…which given qpfs are usually overdone it could be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The heavier bands could put down snow pretty quick. Unfortunately the window is small for accumulating snow. Also have to battle surface temps at onset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 RDPS looked good, too. Seems like it's a battle of the short range vs the globals. The GFS does look better than the Euro for here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: RDPS looked good, too. Seems like it's a battle of the short range vs the globals. The GFS does look better than the Euro for here, though. Very similar to the RGEM, perhaps ever so slightly further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, jlh said: Very similar to the RGEM, perhaps ever so slightly further west. RGEM is the RDPS (confusing I know) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: RGEM is the RDPS (confusing I know) Really now? I figured they were different because tropical tidbits had them listed separately lol. Thanks for letting me know! I see RDPS is listed as the GEM's pilot model. Makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogwoods Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 hours ago, burgertime said: For those still learning and getting confused on what to look for etc.. Euro/NAM is really exciting because it does a big phase which will typically create dynamic weather across a large portion of the southeast. 00z Euro and the NAM tonight really do something special. So what is a phase? Let's use the 00z Euro run tonight to paint the picture: You can see on the map below there are three pieces of energy floating across the US. If these stay as they are essentially separate from each other you end up with small storms across small pockets of the states. What we want to see is these three pieces doing the magic dance and combining to form one big piece of energy like the second image. Past runs across models have shown this happening so, what's different? The problem is that previously this phase was staying positively tilted or neutral. When we say "positive tilt", "neutral tilt" and "negative tilt" what do we mean? This is the orientation of that energy. The Euro and NAM have it go neutral early vs. the GFS. This is an interesting song where if it goes neutral to negative just in time you can get a bomb. When a storm is positively tilted it can push moisture too far south. If it's negative it can pull moisture up. The Euro goes negative just in the nick of time. But what we want to see is for it to go negative just a tick earlier. You can see below all that deep orange and red below. That is a lot of energy which should create dynamics conducive for snow across NC. All and all this could be a big surprise if we keep seeing these trends. This has always been reliant on a perfect phase and it's pretty damn close. What a great and informative post, thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor. RGEM depicts FGEN banding in that same area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, WXNewton said: For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor. Yep, it's some love from the ULL, with some enhancement from the jet as the trough goes negative. The mid-Atlantic forum is bemoaning the fact that all the best dynamics for this feature are down here, so that's always a good sign 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Congrats for the Spartanburg to Charlotte to Greensboro area. You guys are getting 2-4 inches from the meso-low. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Congrats for the Spartanburg to Charlotte to Greensboro area. You guys are getting 2-4 inches from the meso-low. why are you saying that like it's a certainty..no one knows exactly where these bands set up. you'll get people excited only to be disappointed. Allan Huffman touches on this in his first call map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: why are you saying that like it's a certainty..no one knows exactly where these bands set up. you'll get people excited only to be disappointed. Allan Huffman touches on this in his first call map. First time? 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is my bold map for this weekends storm. 4 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Fringe job in Mobile and Jacksonville. Sucks for them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 This is my bold map for this weekends storm.You should post it in the NE threadSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Brad posted this last night. Looks like FV3 and HRRR is going to be the new NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Oof. Through 44 the HRRRRRR is doing well for the Piedmont, complete whiff for the Triangle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Still flurries in the triangle on the last frame of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: Oof. Through 44 the HRRRRRR is doing well for the Piedmont, complete whiff for the Triangle. I'm watching it and that band pivots right through central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like snow in Wake at hour 44 and lasts a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, PackGrad05 said: I'm watching it and that band pivots right through central NC. but it's fast and light and drops about 1 inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, wake4est said: but it's fast and light and drops about 1 inch Verbatim it shows 5-6 hours of snow... That's a nice event for our area, even if it is an inch or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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