PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Cue the local mets showing trends decreasing with euro ensemble probabilities. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Cue the local mets showing trends decreasing with euro ensemble probabilities. GSP in their afternoon AFD sound more promising for the piedmont. All in all still a guessing game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM going to go boom at 18z? Sure. GFS at 18z? Sure. Why not. This is the crazy world of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, CentralNC said: GSP in their afternoon AFD sound more promising for the piedmont. All in all still a guessing game Yea…. CLT Mets have pretty much all said Dusting -2” atleast the 4 I’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NAM going to go boom at 18z? Sure. GFS at 18z? Sure. Why not. This is the crazy world of models. not so sure this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Thoughts and prayers with the NWS Mets having to forecast this thing days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM review = Womp Womp all you need to know 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: NAM review = Womp Womp all you need to know The NAM didn't end up being terrible. Not some of the bombs we saw on yesterday's 18z runs but still not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, rduwx said: The NAM didn't end up being terrible. Not some of the bombs we saw on yesterday's 18z runs but still not terrible. Yea I jumped the gun my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: Yea I jumped the gun my bad No problem. I will say I didn't like some of the things I saw at the 500 level. It looked to my amateur eyes that it took a step towards the what the gfs and euro showed at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Wow, 3k NAM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 One more run from the NAM and it will be a struggle to see snow on the coast as well. Keeps trending east with the snow line. 4 runs in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It is looking like 1 step above a non-event for central NC overall at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: NAM is interesting That isn't the LP that forms from the phase in the 18z run. This run was a little slower and weaker so you have to go out a couple more frames for the LP that forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It misses the NE too LMAO. Welp, that would cause an epic meltdown up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 One more run from the NAM and it will be a struggle to see snow on the coast as well. Keeps trending east with the snow line. 4 runs in a row.Entire Carolinas get at least something so noSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, GunBlade said: That isn't the LP that forms from the phase in the 18z run. This run was a little slower and weaker so you have to go out a couple more frames for the LP that forms. Even the frame you mentioned is significantly weaker and the blocking high stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I know it's frustrating to watch the coastal portion of the storm slip away, but honestly, not a bad look for a 1-3" of fluff for most of the Piedmont. Even with a late phase, the backside potential is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Western Upstate says... check please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 From this to this. LOLOLOL. Lots of cliff-diving in the NE right now. I may have never seen a bigger run-to-run switch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Cheeznado said: From this to this. LOLOLOL. Lots of cliff-diving in the NE right now. I may have never seen a bigger run-to-run switch. Now they know how we feel watching models in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Thoughts and prayers for anyone in Boston who just watched that NAM run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 THe 12km NAM has done this with the last 3 winter storms... A few long range runs way too amped and wet... then a few head scratching whiff runs in the 2-3 day lead time... then settles in the middle where the EURO/RGEM have been all along. Nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Thoughts and prayers for anyone in Boston who just watched that NAM run How about Long Island? 37" to not a flake in one run! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Couple things: the coastal has not been our (our = anyone away from coastal plain) storm on any model besides the NAM for a while now. Seeing it drop it is not surprising given the other models. What has been consistent is the snow breaking out from the upper level system interacting with that developing low. Think last Friday, very very similar. This is definitely trending away from a big event but a snowfall looks somewhat likely for most in NC still 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This has to be fairly high ratio powder, no? Not often you see a sounding that cold above the surface for the upstate. Not sure the column is saturated high enough to get really good ratio stuff though... probably will be if there's at least moderate intensity bands under the backside band... could be a beautiful inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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