Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If I get burned I get burned, but I think a thread is warranted due to ensemble support Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January? 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January?Why do you think I put the question mark? You never know, we could get a shot or 3 in Feb-April but if we get this as a big dog for everybody I think we all will be satisfied Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 hours ago, msuwx said: Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January? Especially when 3 Biggest storms of my life…. I’m 30…. Are Feb 04, March 09, Feb 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 hours ago, msuwx said: Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January? Agree. The 06 had another winter storm next weekend in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Lame Title and too early. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January? Especially when 3 Biggest storms of my life…. I’m 30…. Are Feb 04, March 09, Feb 14 Agree. The 06 had another winter storm next weekend in the SE. Lame Title and too early. There I edited the titleSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GFS looks good again. I'm sure it will lead the way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Trends are our friends right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Reminds me a bit of the storm we just had with where the higher totals are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro is not enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro has been caught lacking this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Lady Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events? My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data. Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Let’s hope the Euro is wrong again on this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Looks to be better odds In the east than in the foothills if I’m looking at this correctly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cat Lady said: Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events? My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data. Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/database/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The Euro has a much stronger ridge in the Southwest than the GFS so the phase again happens farther east and New England gets a superbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This setup is not overly different from this past weekend with the large +PNA ridge out west and incoming PJ s/w from Canada diving into the plains. The euro shears this shortwave out enough to delay the phase which ultimately results in some backlash snow showers over eastern NC as it wraps up and pounds the Northeast. I will say this, there isn't much margin on the Euro/GFS between flurries and 12+ inches. This shortwave has some serious potential if it were to cutoff/phase earlier (of course theoretically they all do I guess). Still a solid 4 days out and time to trend (in either direction). Lastly I will say this appears to be the end of the pattern that has provided us a pretty solid January of storms. These great patterns have the tendency to end in a bang (Although that doesn't necessarily mean your backyard will get hammered). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, Cat Lady said: Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events? My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data. Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region. It greatly varies across the state. There is no one climate in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ghicks said: Looks to be better odds In the east than in the foothills if I’m looking at this correctly It’s really too early to say. At the moment, sure, but we’re 4 days out and a slight tick here or a slight tick there can mean a foot in the west or a foot in the east. The fact that a large area of the southeast gets love from the ensembles shows the lack of consistency right now. Atlanta to DC and all in-between are in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is a favorable trend on the GFS ensemble mean for additional/earlier phasing. Who knows if it will continue. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Lady Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/database/ Thanks! What a great resource! I searched for snow / ice / freezing rain events that impacted wake county since 1990 (since I had to manually copy paste data) to get a frequency distribution of number of events that occur in any year. While the average is just shy of 3 for that area, we are most likely to see far fewer or far more events than to see the average. All that to say climatology would support the idea that the current set up has us on a snow train, similar to how we see groups of wave coming off the coast of Africa during peak hurricane season. We're already above average, and I would expect us to have more events coming down the line just based on this event level frequency data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/database/ what a great share!!! thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 12z ENS ticked southSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This is a favorable trend on the GFS ensemble mean for additional/earlier phasing. Who knows if it will continue. Need the Low to get going over the central gulf of Mexico for this to be a big snow maker, especially back to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Euro has been caught lacking this winter Probably late to the party again. Not sure why some local mets here said it was the best with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GFS: Euro: Note the subtle differences between the two regarding the main piece of energy near the 4 corners. Note the stronger SW Ridge on the Euro as well. That is the difference maker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 59 minutes ago, eyewall said: The Euro has a much stronger ridge in the Southwest than the GFS so the phase again happens farther east and New England gets a superbomb. 954 LP…. Yea right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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