Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 FWIW but that’s monster members south of LI. LOL at the one just south of Coney Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jt17 said: It's not even about what's going to be depicted on this run or the next, what he's trying to say is if H5 literally looked like that in real time as the storm happened, the output would be for more snow than the model runs are spitting out. Forgive me ... but why would the model put down surface output that didn't reflect what it sees at the upper levels? There must be something that is causing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: FWIW but that’s monster members south of LI. LOL at the one just south of Coney Island. Close enough that it would probably flip a lot of coastal areas over to sleet and then dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: FWIW but that’s monster members south of LI. LOL at the one just south of Coney Island. That would give a new meaning to the Coney Island Cyclone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, larrye said: Forgive me ... but why would the model put down surface output that didn't reflect what it sees at the upper levels? There must be something that is causing that. For one, it could be convective feedback issues. It happens sometimes when you have really explosive convection to the Northeast of where the surface low should be. Sometimes the surface low will try to chase that convection which would never happen in reality. I've also seen cases where we thought it might be convective feedback but the further East idea ended up being correct. It's a crapshoot. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Close enough that it would probably flip a lot of coastal areas over to sleet and then dry slot. Watch your tongue, lol. They’ll freak reading that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, larrye said: Forgive me ... but why would the model put down surface output that didn't reflect what it sees at the upper levels? There must be something that is causing that. Of course there are reasons why the depiction ends up the way it does, but I think you're still missing his point. He's trying to say when H5 looks like that it historically has a very signature output in real life and since these are model outputs days in advance he's using some reasoning, history, logic that some of the noise the models are seeing wouldn't actually come into play and we've have a bigger storm for our area. He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the simplest way to look at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, MANDA said: This would be a very welcome and appreciated snow event for this forum if expectations were not set so high early in the week with some of the very intense and epic solutions the Euro and EPS were showing and at times CMC and GFS back 5-7 days out. Given the winter so far if this forum gets something close to the 12Z Euro take it and run! I dunno. To me, I saw this coming all week long. I didn't look at the Kuchera maps. The GFS was never consistently at or inside the benchmark that I recall. And while the Euro was better, from what I recall, it also was either a bit east at times or was developing the storm too late. I didn't know how much would fall, but I pretty much was thinking that it was looking like this was a NE and eastern LI storm with lower amounts as you go west and not much north and west of NYC. I didn't think we'd see 35" near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, MANDA said: No large scale overall changes with 12Z EURO. Just "noise" in my opinion. Remains close to something better but I think it is going to be just a little too late for most of this forum to cash in on double digit totals. NJ coast and L.I. best chances for 12"+. Amounts will taper quickly N and W of I95. Would go with 4-8" NYC. NW NJ 1-3, maybe 2-4". I think final outcome could be close to what 12Z EURO is showing. Having said that any minor adjustments could send totals upward and further to the NW as well. Gut feeling is this is just going to be a little too late for much higher than what I've described. Still a delicate situation that bears watching for adjustment. Eps is also west of 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, MANDA said: This would be a very welcome and appreciated snow event for this forum if expectations were not set so high early in the week with some of the very intense and epic solutions the Euro and EPS were showing and at times CMC and GFS back 5-7 days out. Given the winter so far if this forum gets something close to the 12Z Euro take it and run! I said all along with this keep expectations in check but there’s big upside potential. Non weenies here said the same. I’ll gladly take the about 10” it gives me and run. But there’s always a sense of missing out watching Boston get twice if not more so hopefully the minor changes happen to share more wealth. If I was well NW I wouldn’t have gotten sucked in. There were only a couple really nuts Euro runs that brought heavy snow that far. Besides that it’s an evolution that isn’t favorable there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If we could get some of the prettier EPS pictures to look at, I'd be quite grateful. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z Eps in motion. Some of these are big hits I'm sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: If we could get some of the prettier EPS pictures to look at, I'd be quite grateful. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lot to the west an some monsters in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: 12z Eps in motion. Some of these are big hits I'm sure. I think it likes this mesolow/convective low idea and it’s struggling where to put the main low. If it consolidates on those western lows earlier we’re in a better place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12Z EURO MEAN and CONTROL Don't have individual members yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'll take the 974mb South of LI for $500 Alex. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6", 12" and 18" probabilities All 3 showed slight expansion N and W from 06Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: 12Z EURO MEAN and CONTROL Don't have individual members yet Don't forget ratios will be at least 15 to 1. You can almost 1.5X those numbers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think it likes this mesolow/convective low idea and it’s struggling where to put the main low. If it consolidates on those western lows earlier we’re in a better place. Maybe, I'll flip through them in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z Eps in motion. Some of these are big hits I'm sure. We are DEFINITELY in the game. There are numerous members in there that alcan crush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Don't forget ratios will be at least 15 to 1. You can almost 1.5X those numbers. Would they? I could see that N and W but some on here have said that ratios would not reach that level from NYC and east due to strong winds and that 10:1 was more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 two lows that merge here- one off Florida Coast that is progged to be ABBSORBED by the other off the Carolinas models are bat shit crazy with this evolution I marked up the 1020mb contour developing storms have a knack of slowing down or not breaking into that pressure gradient easily old school tracking bias OPC tracks it south of the Benchmark (extrap at 986mb) 500mb chart Capture of the surface low is the key for weenie joy (west of the city) there are hints all over the place for this if the euro is correct as shown---the metro and west get jacked up banding snow-imho Follow the meso scale models as always ....closer to game time dm 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z ICON with the two separate lows that I was alluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The west & east spread is just a matter of will there be a capture or not. In the event of a capture the surface low appears to head NW as the storm intensifies then ENE. That's clearly illustrated on the western side of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Eventually the trailing low takes over and deepens. Go home ICON, you've had too many pilsners. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Is that the pause that has been shown in some of the more aggressive modeling in terms of qpf? That group of about 30-40% that seems to remain in place south of Long Island while the rest depart for the coast of Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 38 minutes ago, forkyfork said: lol. not much confidence on the 12z eps Heck one low is on top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Doorman said: two lows that merge here- one off Florida Coast that is progged to be ABBSORBED by the other off the Carolinas models are bat shit crazy with this evolution I marked up the 1020mb contour developing storms have a knack of slowing down or not breaking into that pressure gradient easily old school tracking bias OPC tracks it south of the Benchmark (extrap at 986mb) 500mb chart Capture of the surface low is the key for weenie joy (west of the city) there are hints all over the place for this if the euro is correct as shown---the metro and west get jacked up banding snow-imho Follow the meso scale models as always ....closer to game time dm Boy, they are tracking it well SE of the BM. Not sure i agree with that depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now