USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, dseagull said: Are the H5s just depicted poorly? No, the H5s are depicted beautifully. The surface is depicted a bit poorly. In my opinion. I always go by H5 over sfc when looking at models. This H5 -to me- screams KU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Paging Doorman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Don't forget the bands are almost always a little west of model depictions during the storm. Agree, I also am sure the ratios will be between than 10-1 in most places in a cold storm like this. People exaggerate when they say the ratio maps have no merit. The final ratios usually end up somewhere between 10-1 and the Kuchera map output and the western fringes should have a better shot at lining up with the Kuchera ratios anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Pretty much every model now outside of the gfs which is in la la land has about the same solution roughly. I know people want to see the big snows but I think it's sorta unlikely west of Suffolk county but it's close enough where I am definitely giving it until the 0Z runs tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think it's a timing issue which more times than not usually resolves favorably. It's very hard for the models to pinpoint exactly how quickly the different pieces are moving. This is so very close. It really doesn't take a lot to get a monster solution out of that run. Usually, the big ones will do that, yeah. We'll see. EPS still had some big hits at 00z. Curious to see what 12z does after that run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's a little messy. If you're counting on a massive storm then temper those expectations. The odds of everything aligning perfectly in this pattern is very unlikely though not impossible. My expectations are very low for this. NYC east has much better odds, excellent odds for eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 FORKY we are sooooo close! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Zero confidence in anything yet of course. We're just discussing the euro run here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: FORKY we are sooooo close! Yes verrrrry close where you and I are. Would take tiny changes aloft and at the surface to add 10” to our totals. And yes oftentimes banding makes it west of modeled in these storms. If that low consolidated west on the Euro just a few hours sooner…. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Man! Talk about a paper clip width of something much more significant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, dseagull said: Are the H5s just depicted poorly? It just seemed like a bit of a sloppy evolution with multiple lows trying to consolidate when it was our turn at the table so to speak. Boston got the finished 7-course entree, we got the cooks trying to throw things on the plates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I’m more glad that the east/sloppier trend on the Euro reversed. There’s still plenty of time for improvements. This definitely ain’t the final verdict here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 No large scale overall changes with 12Z EURO. Just "noise" in my opinion. Remains close to something better but I think it is going to be just a little too late for most of this forum to cash in on double digit totals. NJ coast and L.I. best chances for 12"+. Amounts will taper quickly N and W of I95. Would go with 4-8" NYC. NW NJ 1-3, maybe 2-4". I think final outcome could be close to what 12Z EURO is showing. Having said that any minor adjustments could send totals upward and further to the NW as well. Gut feeling is this is just going to be a little too late for much higher than what I've described. Still a delicate situation that bears watching for adjustment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a little messy. If you're counting on a massive storm then temper those expectations. The odds of everything aligning perfectly in this pattern is very unlikely though not impossible. My expectations are very low for this. NYC east has much better odds, excellent odds for eastern LI. 3-6? That's I think our best case scenario in these parts barring some big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Anybody have EPS pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: Anybody have EPS pics? They don’t come out until 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, USCG RS said: No, the H5s are depicted beautifully. The surface is depicted a bit poorly. In my opinion. I always go by H5 over sfc when looking at models. This H5 -to me- screams KU I'll ask you the same question I asked someone else earlier. What good is a favorable H5 if the surface doesn't reflect it? Are you also saying that perhaps the surface features on the next run will better reflect the H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It just seemed like a bit of a sloppy evolution with multiple lows trying to consolidate when it was our turn at the table so to speak. Boston got the finished 7-course entree, we got the cooks trying to throw things on the plates. Thanks. I guess my question was more about the surface depiction and how it doesnt match what you would expect based on the h5. That's all due to chasing to the east? And wouldn't one expect the ingested previous data to play "catch" up on the next runs? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’m more glad that the east/sloppier trend on the Euro reversed. There’s still plenty of time for improvements. This definitely ain’t the final verdict here. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, larrye said: I'll ask you the same question I asked someone else earlier. What good is a favorable H5 if the surface doesn't reflect it? Are you also saying that perhaps the surface features on the next run will better reflect the H5? It's not even about what's going to be depicted on this run or the next, what he's trying to say is if H5 literally looked like that in real time as the storm happened, the output would be for more snow than the model runs are spitting out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’m more glad that the east/sloppier trend on the Euro reversed. There’s still plenty of time for improvements. This definitely ain’t the final verdict here. Definitely either way. This is going to be a tightrope walk and watch situation as these coastals often are. Boxing Day and Jan 2015 come to mind quite a bit, but even some of the big ones we had in March the last five years or so ended up being a nowcast situation where the bands set up and pivoShow Repliest. A 25-30 mile difference or edge west or east makes big differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Answers my question. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Does the snow start falling after 11PM on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Thanks. I guess my question was more about the surface depiction and how it doesnt match what you would expect based on the h5. That's all due to chasing to the east? Possibly. Models today seem to be developing a meso low/convective-based low over the Gulf Stream as the coastal low gets going. The upper air dynamics eventually capture it all and consolidate it but it happens verbatim a little too late for us except for far eastern areas. And yes it can happen. It happened with our storm earlier this month but over time the coastal low became better defined and hopefully this one does too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If you compare this 12z to 0z last night (not 6z) it's overall a little better. So it improved its way even beyond 0z after the lousy 6z. It'll be interesting to see EPS as well and how many tucked in monsters we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This would be a very welcome and appreciated snow event for this forum if expectations were not set so high early in the week with some of the very intense and epic solutions the Euro and EPS were showing and at times CMC and GFS back 5-7 days out. Given the winter so far if this forum gets something close to the 12Z Euro take it and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 lol. not much confidence on the 12z eps 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: If you compare this 12z to 0z last night (not 6z) it's overall a little better. So it improved its way even beyond 0z after the lousy 6z. It'll be interesting to see EPS as well and how many tucked in monsters we have. Agreed. With how close that looked I wouldn't be surprised to see a few crushers in the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: lol. not much confidence on the 12z eps Lots of members inside the benchmark South of LI. Many of those are probably big hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Some of them are really tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now