Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The gfs has been rock solid. It's not backing down. That upgrade must've really worked wonders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yeah... this is a complete nowcast situation, unfortunately. A phase of 3-6 hours earlier, OR a slight different orientation of the trough OR a different phase going into the trough OR... etc. So many moving pieces. So many. It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. It's a forecasting nightmare. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. Feels like the last two minutes of the Bills/Chiefs game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: The gfs has been rock solid. It's not backing down. That upgrade must've really worked wonders We will see afterwards if the GFS was correct. However, I will add that precision and accuracy do not always go hand in hand. In fact they rarely do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If you insist. Jfc the shifts is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: The gfs has been rock solid. It's not backing down. That upgrade must've really worked wonders The storm didn't happen yet so don't give it credit yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: The gfs has been rock solid. It's not backing down. That upgrade must've really worked wonders If it's correct. Are you going to stake on it? Why aren't the pros in terms of snow forecasts? Would be no watches anywhere in the area even for me. With respect, this is too volatile to just conclude the GFS is right. And yet, it absolutely could prove to be. Crazy times. This is extremely volatile especially with the precarious set up. Maybe the GFS has the best solution, maybe its slightly underestimating. I don't feel confident either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: There are stages of interactions that lead to the surface depiction. If one of the earlier and more crucial stages is showing a more favorable look than before above the surface, going forward it could lead to more significant changes downstream even if the current run doesn't show it yet. Atleast that would be my ELI5 understanding. In other words, the "facts" are that the 12z GFS did come west just a little bit more, but its track is still east and given the strength, its depiction of the point at which the deepening occurs, and the 12z depiction of the surface features, it has not converged with the Euro's solution and depicts a less intense solution ... ALTHOUGH, the upper air features on the 12z GFS do indicate some improvement and if that continues, MIGHT be the harbinger of a more favorable surface change on the 18z or 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No, to get a dry slot the ULL would have to come onshore. It's going to pass Southeast of LI. That's what I thought thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. Sure we have. I remember expecting a minor to moderate event on 1/3/18 because the system was riding too far east. Last minute west trend for the next day got me up to 14-15". 1/272015 had the epic Euro vs world battle until the end. Even before 1/25/16 the snow was supposed to stay south of Philly mostly and then blasted north at the very end. These are much different systems but there's often tons of volatility with these to the end. That said, the trend toward broadening the trough and delaying the consolidation of the different lows/features isn't what we want. We still have time for it to reverse enough to make a difference at least near the city. Hopefully it hits the Atlantic rocket fuel and takes off right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Any chance the models are underestimating the effect of the SSTs? I can't logically offer anything on why they would, but they are anomalously high this year. Lots of energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 When I see " nowcast" I generally don't expect much for my area. Still hoping for a normal snow event. Clearly out of the big show, but maybe have some upper row seats..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. It's a forecasting nightmare. It might be close but there's a consensus forming that this is a storm for far eastern sections, the major snows I mean. Nothing is locked in yet but the models do seem to be honing in on a solution and time is running out, the GFS and Euro are closer than they've ever been the last few runs. A lot of the others are ticking east as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: If it's correct. Are you going to stake on it? Why aren't the pros in terms of snow forecasts? Would be no watches anywhere in the area even for me. With respect, this is too volatile to just conclude the GFS is right. And yet, it absolutely could prove to be. Crazy times. This is extremely volatile especially with the precarious set up. Maybe the GFS has the best solution, maybe its slightly underestimating. I don't feel confident either way. I'm not saying it's right. Yet. But everything has been trending toward it. An it hasnt wavered much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The storm didn't happen yet so don't give it credit yet. Not giving credit. Just stating it hasnt wavered much an other guidance moving toward that solution. Hopefully the nam is right. I want a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse. Sometimes models overadjust when they sense a change from new data. The southern stream DC to ACY snow event this winter overadjusted on models when they saw suddenly it would be much further north. We were supposed to get 3-5" on some models in NYC but it ended up tons of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm not saying it's right. Yet. But everything has been trending toward it. An it hasnt wavered much It will eventually cave. Just now, Franklin0529 said: Not giving credit. Just stating it hasnt wavered much an other guidance moving toward that solution. Hopefully the nam is right. I want a foot plus Yeah, it's been consistently wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: It will eventually cave. Yeah, it's been consistently wrong. Ok lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Ok lol It gives NYC about an inch and that's only at 12z when before it gave nothing. Most other models give 6-8. Which forecast do you think is most likely given what we have seen so far? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, USCG RS said: We will see afterwards if the GFS was correct. However, I will add that precision and accuracy do not always go hand in hand. In fact they rarely do. I had some hope last night, but right now this is looking like a Boston storm to me. Some parts of NJ may do ok ( as it stands right now, as well as parts of LI ) but those of us just west of the city, I think we may be grasping at straws here. These kinds of winters, sorta like 2007, just don't favor my area. At least we haven't had a ton of rain like we did that year IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I really would love more of the meteorologists here to chime in today. Forky-san, I need your prophetic guidance! With that said, certainly very aware how busy they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Too soon to get comfortable with any outcome. Wholesale changes are not needed in this situation. It's simply too close to call. Very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: It gives NYC about an inch and that's only at 12z when before it gave nothing. Most other models give 6-8. Which forecast do you think is most likely given what we have seen so far? I'm not arguing with you. Guess we will find out wont we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: I'm not arguing with you. Guess we will find out wont we We certainly will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 See you all at 12:47. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: I'm not arguing with you. Guess we will find out wont we What's to argue about? There are a range of possibilities, some of which don't look so great for a lot of us. At some point the pros will adjust the forecast; that may be later than sooner this time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Any chance the models are underestimating the effect of the SSTs? I can't logically offer anything on why they would, but they are anomalously high this year. Lots of energy. I’m surprised nobody is mentioning about this possibility. It could lead to faster pressure falls/earlier ULL closing. The meso models would pick up on this as we get closer to the event if it were to occur. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, LoboLeader1 said: this is 18 hours ago before all of the other models hopped way back and GFS has recovered a bit since then fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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