wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think the final outcome will be it goes right over the bench mark or a little east, but so close to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Wait till the Euro comes out and has you close to smoking cirrus. It’s been moving east ever since yesterday at 12z. Take your 1-3/1-4 and enjoy :-) Dutchess county and me north of 84 may actually only get 2-4, that is possible, but places like Rockland that you mentioned should get 6 or possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I know way out of range. But anyone else see the 3k Nam , and other mesos on TT struggle to get snow north of NYC? Are they picking up on the due north dry winds coming down the hudson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs was a bit better upstairs. Good enough for me for now. Would have been troubling to see it deteriorate. This is a big euro run ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Gefs deft a west lean 12z 6z 00z Some westward lean yes but majority of those tracks are south and east of the BM and that ain't gonna cut it. For my location I like a track between KBID and KMVY and across CC Canal to maximize totals over western and NW NJ. With these tracks SE New England cashes in and that is what most guidance is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: you got to look at more than just the surface. Well, let me ask you a dumb question then. What good is an improvement at the upper levels if there isn't any corresponding improvement at the surface? Doesn't the surface ultimately reflect the QPF? Seriously, set me straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MANDA said: Some westward lean yes but majority of those tracks are south and east of the BM and that ain't gonna cut it. For my location I like a track between KBID and KMVY and across CC Canal to maximize totals over western and NW NJ. True just comparing the 3 runs majority of the lows tracks shifted closer/ on the bench this run around. No real way to know if that's a trend or not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I don't know if any model can nail this down until we start to follow radar trends. Someone can be in for a wicked heartache - both along the shore where we are expecting double digits and the northwest fringe zone where flurries or 3-4 inches could be a matter of 10 miles. I've been on sides of that equation. They hurt equally bad. The ceiling is still incredibly high for a bust in our favor as well - but when you're talking literally 30-50 mile difference we've all been burned in the past - 2015. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, larrye said: Well, let me ask you a dumb question then. What good is an improvement at the upper levels if there isn't any corresponding improvement at the surface? Doesn't the surface ultimately reflect the QPF? Seriously, set me straight. There are stages of interactions that lead to the surface depiction. If one of the earlier and more crucial stages is showing a more favorable look than before above the surface, going forward it could lead to more significant changes downstream even if the current run doesn't show it yet. Atleast that would be my ELI5 understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Big Jims Videos said: I don't know if any model can nail this down until we start to follow radar trends. Someone can be in for a wicked heartache - both along the shore where we are expecting double digits and the northwest fringe zone where flurries or 3-4 inches could be a matter of 10 miles. I've been on sides of that equation. They hurt equally bad. The ceiling is still incredibly high for a bust in our favor as well - but when you're talking literally 30-50 mile difference we've all been burned in the past - 2015. Starting to have that Jan 2015 feel to it where we're waiting here for the low to bomb and start tracking north and Boston is licking its chops. We're getting back to "it's salvageable" with these east ticks and broader trough coming in. We need the capture/phase as soon as possible. Always a nailbiter on the SW side of these. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: There are stages of interactions that lead to the surface depiction. If one of the earlier and more crucial stages is showing a more favorable look than before above the surface, going forward it could lead to more significant changes downstream even if the current run doesn't show it yet. Atleast that would be my ELI5 understanding. bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The east trend is real and still 24 hours left to go. No good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: Starting to have that Jan 2015 feel to it where we're waiting here for the low to bomb and start tracking north and Boston is licking its chops. We're getting back to "it's salvageable" with these east ticks and broader trough coming in. We need the capture/phase as soon as possible. Always a nailbiter on the SW side of these. Yeah... this is a complete nowcast situation, unfortunately. A phase of 3-6 hours earlier, OR a slight different orientation of the trough OR a different phase going into the trough OR... etc. So many moving pieces. So many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z GFS seems to be a bit too hesitant to allow the Four Corners Wave to escape east once the SoCal wave shears out. 12z NAM allows the N. Plains energy to coax the Four Corners wave out a little further east. It looks a bit more realistic? Maybe? I think the GFS is pulling back the rubber band a little too hard in TX. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If the 12z GGEM had closed off the ULL 6 hours sooner we would have all been measuring snow in feet. Instead it closes off 6 hours later South of the Twin forks. It's that close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: The east trend is real and still 24 hours left to go. No good. Yep West trends can behind again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Cmc This. Would not take a miracle to have the 12 plus into tri state Yeah can go other way and be less but I am still excited (until Forky says no). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If we all band together can we form a spirit bomb and throw it into the trough, Goku style? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If the 12z GGEM had closed off the ULL 6 hours sooner we would have all been measuring snow in feet. Instead it closes off 6 hours later South of the Twin forks. It's that close. Yep it's that close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: because they are wishcasting it to do something better next run bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Is there the risk of any dry slots with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd. is there a snow map for that..thanks, or what does it show for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: because they are wishcasting it to do something better next run He was right though about H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, winterwarlock said: is there a snow map for that..thanks, or what does it show for NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Anybody paying attention to what’s going on out west?? It seems like heights are coming in higher than forecast across the west including in the base of the shortwave nearing Salt lake this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: is there a snow map for that..thanks, or what does it show for NJ If you insist. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Is there the risk of any dry slots with this storm? No, to get a dry slot the ULL would have to come onshore. It's going to pass Southeast of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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